Giant Prospective

*This is only the Pre-Season Top 30 Prospect List portion of my 2021 SF Giants Prospect Primer.

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1. Marco Luciano SS

PV 35 | FV 60

Tl;dr: Luciano has superstar potential offensively with his advanced hitting ability and plus-plus power, and is working towards becoming a capable defender at shortstop.

During the past 18 months, I have been battling against myself in terms of who should be the top prospect of the Giants organization between Luciano and Bart. After sticking to Bart for the longest time, I feel confident now in saying that I am choosing Luciano as the best prospect in the organization.

Luciano’s progress has been safe to say as steady after coming in this year’s Spring Training even thicker than ever. Always has been a very broad shouldered of a man, Luciano’s frame now oozes of muscle and he is able to put those muscle into good use, launching near 120 MPH bombs last year in Instructs.

It is an interesting thing to note about the subtle changes that Luciano’s worked on with regards to his lower body mechanics over the past 9 months. In last year’s summer camp, I was not a big fan of how he opens up his front leg in his drive phase as it looks like he was losing balance and was leaking energy as a result. He has since corrected those by quieting his front leg significantly and results to more explosion with his bat. In this year’s Spring Training, he’s also adjusted his hands set-up and that is something to took note of in the coming months.

As a gargantuan of a man as Luciano is, the Giants are making a concerted effort to have him play shortstop long-term and understandably so, as they focus on having his quick twitch muscles at peak physical shape at all times over the summer. I still do not see him play shortstop long-term as he is pretty stiff on defense and at the batter’s box more often than not. In the current landscape of the organizational depth chart though, he is the organization’s best bet at the position even with only average fielding potential.

2. Joey Bart C

PV 40 | FV 55

Tl;dr: Bart will be a big leaguer because of his defensive capabilities but his overall ceiling took a hit after the strikeouts piled up after a cup of coffee in the Majors.

If there is a better way of trying to explain what “trial by fire” means, then look no further than Bart’s 2020 season in the big leagues. As I watched more and more Giants games last year (mostly because I had no choice because there’s no Minor League action), the more I get a sense of what Bart was experiencing at the time.

If I can sum up Bart’s season last year in one word, it is “uncomfortable”. The defensive prowess that I have known from Bart from watching him in the squat: a sturdy presence behind the dish, his ability to build rapport with his pitchers, his soft catching glove presenting the ball expertly for the umpire to see. Those things I did not see from him at a high-level last year, as I saw plenty of “wiggle” from his glove. If that was a result of a difference in pitching talent, that I am still uncertain. But what I am certain is that he was not catching balls as soundly as he did in 2019.

Remember when I wrote in the 2020 mid-season Top 20 that Bart still needs more seasoning in the Minors, but he teased us with a strong start offensively last year? Yeah, he still needs more seasoning. As pitchers start to find holes in his approach, specifically big-league quality breaking balls, his production faltered and his strikeouts kept piling up. Bart’s whiff rate is almost 50% and was stuck out by a pitch not considered a fastball 75% of the time. His expected batting average (xBA) against breaking balls and changeups were also noticeably lower than his actual batting average (aBA). Maybe the only positive was that his xBA against fastballs was better than his aBA albeit only a small difference.

Perhaps the most surprising thing about Bart last year was that the man’s got some wheels, as his sprint speed (26.8 ft/sec or 29.5 kph), or about average in a 20-80 scale. Just goes to show that not all catchers are slow pokes and sprint speed tells us that those we consider as “slow” can be much faster in in game conditions.

Bart should play most of 2021 in the Minors, not just of seasoning reasons but also because Buster Posey’s still holding the fort behind the dish. We might have seen the negatives of being over-aggressive with the promotions of prospects and first cracks in the armor of Bart’s superstar potential. However, it’s far from the end of the world for Bart as he can use the hardships that he experienced in his first rodeo in the Majors as a learning tool once he gets back up to the big leagues.

3. Heliot Ramos OF

PV 40 | FV 50

Tl;dr: Ramos will soon become an everyday staple in the Giants lineup where he will look to hit for plenty of power and become a capable outfielder with the arm strength to play in right field.

If there was a normal 2020 season, Ramos would have definitely made his big-league debut (barring any injury). The unfortunate thing was that he did not, and Ramos injured his oblique on two separate occasions so that dreams of having his big-league debut got thwarted. However, 2021 presents a much better opportunity for Heliot to play at Oracle and showcase what he can offer to the table as the first batch of the recent Giants prospect pipeline starts to come to San Francisco.

His oblique injury did not really hamper his development as he is already a very polished hitter when factoring in the fact that he is younger than Patrick Bailey who got drafted by the Giants a year ago. We already know what to expect from Ramos at this point of his career: a hitter who has a sound hitting mechanics and is strong enough to hit homers to all fields and hit at an average clip but will rack up the strikeouts, and a potential center fielder but will move to right where his average range, plus arm, and solid instincts will play. However, I still see Ramos as a potential player who will reach All-Star status if everything clicks and there’s still a chance that he gets there given his strong makeup.

4. Luis Matos OF

PV 30 | FV 50

Tl;dr: Matos has impressive feel for the barrel and his other tools grade as average or better, making him one of the most well-rounded prospects in the organization.

The first surprise of my list, although I do not think that this should come as a complete shock as Matos has always hit in his short resume, with pitchers in the Instructs last fall as his latest victims.

I can say with good confidence that Matos’ ability of making contact with the baseball with the bat is plus. Of course, his approach still needs a good amount of work as he can still improve in his in-game decision-making and tone down his aggressiveness. However, not everyone can rotate their hips and their trunk as explosively while maintaining balance at the batter’s box as Matos. His rather flamboyant follow through is just a result of his explosive trunk rotation.

What I also am a fan of is that Matos is not trying to be what he is not, as he does not try to be an all-out, swing for the fences-centric approach and instead is punishing hitters with hard contact balls from his pull-side to right-center. While his current exit velocities typically register in the low-100s which is solid, there’s still projection in his body (still kind of lean in physique) and adding a bit of loft in his swing could turn those screaming doubles to balls to the seats.

With a high IQ, great baseball lineage, and impressive set of tools and an aggressive approach in both the batter’s box and in the basepaths, Matos could turn to more than just an everyday big leaguer in the future. If his bat progresses as the way I see it, he could be in the big leagues in only a couple of years’ time and can be slotted in any outfield position and expect him to be more than adequate defensively.

5. Patrick Bailey C

PV 35 | FV 50

Tl;dr: Bailey is one of the most polished prospects in the organization where he is a potential plus defender at catcher while having a solid offensive game built around power and base on balls.

The majority of us fans were salty with the Giants when Bailey was selected in the first round (while still having Tyler Soderstrom on the board, I’ll never forget that one, Farhan!). However, what the Giants did was quite possibly the most polished draft prospect at their selection, and Bailey impressed the coaches in the intra-squad games and in Instructs. He’s starting off Spring Training with a bit of an adjustment to his left-handed swing, where he is standing more upright, hands set up higher, and his bat is more parallel to the ground in a similar fashion as Evan Longoria.

There might be a real possibility that Bailey will be playing in San Francisco in 18 months, given his polish and his very valuable skillset: a switch-hitter who can take walks at a high rate while offering solid power and will play the toughest position in the field at a high level. I bet that if what he will only do is play catcher, he will be in the big leagues right now. What does this do to the catcher conundrum with Bart, Bailey, and Posey will be a talk for another day. But for now, let’s try to enjoy having this kind of talent at the toughest position to have talent.

6. Alexander Canario OF

PV 30 | FV 45

Tl;dr: When healthy, Canario has plus in-game power and arm strength to fit the corner outfield profile, and has shown flashes of improving his over-aggressiveness at the plate.

As volatile of a prospect is in the Giants farm system as anyone, Canario experienced a speed bump when he tore his left labrum in the Instructs and had to undergo surgery that ended his fall league stint abruptly. However, I still thought that Canario had a positive 2020 campaign.

In the intra-squad games that I watched, he showed an improved plate discipline where he was taking pitches that were borderline calls and took base on balls at will but got fooled and whiffed at times by good sequencing and smart backwards pitching. The result was not exactly pretty but the process was significant and is for the better. He came in shape, and was steadily becoming a better, more complete hitter.

Canario still rivals Luciano in terms of pure bat speed because of his explosive cuts in in game conditions last year and in 2019 and has the potential to fully tap into his raw power. It was really lucky that it was his non-throwing side that went under the knife and I am excited to see his progress once he comes back in action this year. He can still be a guy who racks up the strikeouts but a better walk rate and a steady batting average will be pivotal for Canario to fully reach his potential as an everyday player with a chance of becoming an All-Star.

7. Hunter Bishop OF

PV 30 | FV 45

Tl;dr: Bishop has pronounced three-true-outcomes profile in his offensive game and is capable of playing center field with his range and his knack for the spectacular.

We are probably doing Hunter Bishop dirty by not talking about him because he never made significant noise in the Giants camp last year because of the coronavirus issue that he had. You might have heard him more last year dropping some sick beats rather than doing bat flips because of him pursuing his other passion which is music in the down time. (Seriously, go check out his tracks! My favorite is Erase Me.)

With not a lot of noise that Bishop made on the baseball field, the report that I got on him is still pretty much the same as what I had a couple of years ago: a dynamic outfielder with rare plus power and speed potential that will play at center field and has holes in his swing but is very patient and draws walks at a high rate, or a three-true-outcomes hitter in short. 2021 will really give us a real sense of what Bishop’s progress so far and will tell a lot about his potential ceiling as well, whether I ranked him too low or just right.

8. Kyle Harrison LH SP

FB 55 / 60 | SL 45 / 55 | CH 35 / 50 | CMD 40 / 55

PV 30 | FV 45

Tl;dr: Harrison upped his game by throwing a harder fastball and a sharper breaking ball in Instructs while retaining the same pitchability traits that people raved about him.

While the majority viewed Harrison as a “high floor, low ceiling” prep lefty in last year’s draft, I viewed him as someone who has a higher ceiling than most have thought while still having that high floor that they are talking about, if not a bit lower. When he played in the Instructional League and started firing 93-97 MPH bullets, I felt happy with my evaluation based what I saw from him since his Team USA stint in 2019.

Harrison came to the Instructional Leagues in tip-top condition, has added weight and has already refined his mechanics significantly. His arm action is shorter, and possibly the most important of all might be the tempo of his overall pitching motion is quicker and more explosive. A well-used adage is that explosive movements lead to explosive results and that’s what’s happened with Harrison’s velocity bump. A 93-97 MPH fastball when thrown on that arm slot is much tougher to deal with than an 88-93 MPH offering while retaining the same two-seam movement that he had when pitching in lower velocities. Also, his slider, while still a bit of an issue to locate down in the zone, has sharper bite and becoming more and more of a put-away pitch for him.

Even though I gave Harrison an above-average grade for his potential command, I might be a bit low than most on that aspect of his because a guy as athletic and flexible as he is that relied heavily on his fastball so far to his pitching career should not miss his spots more than what I expected him from him. Hopefully, his improved mechanics should help him find hit his spots at a higher rate, especially locating his slider and changeup low in the zone.

I currently have Harrison’s FV as only a 45 but it can definitely tick up a grade or two in 2021 depending on how well he pitches. He is already the best pitching prospect that the Giants have entering the 2021 season, albeit by a slim margin, but I would not be surprised at all if he ends up entering top 5 discussion and into the top 100 prospects in all of baseball because of how good he potentially can become while how advanced he already is compared to his peers.

9. Seth Corry LH SP

FB 50 / 55 | CH 50 / 55 | CB 55 / 55 | CMD 40 / 45

PV 35 | FV 45

Tl;dr: Corry has mid-rotation potential if he can continue to show his ability to locate his three potential wipeout pitches for quality strikes like in the second half of 2019.

Corry looked to follow up his ridiculously impressive second half of 2019 season with an astounding 2020 season had the pandemic never happened. However, we all know what went down last year and Corry had to settle with an appearance in the Instructional league while not hearing his name get called up in the 2020 summer camp as most of the Giants pitching prospects did.

What Corry showed in the Instructional league was what I saw from the second half of 2019 than in the first half: an oversimplified windup with better balance in his drive phase and follow through allowing him to get on top of the ball better. His changeup and curveball kept on ebbing and flowing in which pitch was the better secondary pitch for him. In the Instructional league, he showed as good of a curveball as he first had in his prep days that flashed plus.

However, the big key for Corry is his fastball command. Yes, he can pump the pitch in the mid-90s with explosive running action, but he misses his spots from now and then especially to his arm side. Yes, he’s one of the most athletic persons in the farm, but he can lose his rather high-maintenance mechanics in spurts (but less than ever).

One can easily compare Corry to current Giants pitcher Logan Webb except Corry’s a left-hander, and understandably so. If Corry can locate to his arm side better in 2021 while retaining his ability to spot the fastball to his glove side consistently like in 2019, there’s a mid-to-backend rotation starter that we got here. If not, his nasty assortment of pitches fits very well in the bullpen.

10. Will Wilson SS

PV 35 | FV 45

Tl;dr: Wilson projects as a versatile infielder with the arm strength to fit in all the infield positions while also being an average hitter for both average and power.

We know why the Giants added Wilson, as a cunning move to accept Zack Cozart’s contract as the Angels were freeing up cap space in order to sign Anthony Rendon. We all know that the Giants front office really love Wilson, as they would have drafted him had Hunter Bishop not been on the board. The only problem that every Giants fan has is that we have never seen Wilson in action, like actual regular season action in a Giants affiliation. However, we did have seen Wilson in a lot of camps last year as an affirmation to how much Wilson is raved by the current regime.

I see Wilson as a guy who is always looking for a new edge in order to be successful. Throughout the course of 18 months, Wilson has implemented a variety of batting stances, most recently in Spring Training where he has the bat resting on his back shoulder. What the actuals results of those adjustments we will know once the regular season starts, but he projects to be an average hitter but he does need to improve on improving his walk rate based on what he tallied in college.

He’s also played all over the infield in the intra-squads and Instructs as the Giants do envision Wilson to become a versatile infielder where he is a solid defender on second, third, and shortstop with an above-average arm and smooth actions. He just needs to prove that his bat is advanced enough to move through the system rather quickly because he is not a guy who has the flashy tools in the toolbox and if he does not move quickly, his stock will go down rather quickly as well.

11. Sean Hjelle RH SP

FB 55 / 55 | CB 45 / 50 | CH 45 / 50 | CMD 45 / 55

PV 40 | FV 45

Tl;dr: Hjelle is on the cusp of reaching the big leagues where his unique release height allows for his finesse pitching and rather average stuff to play up.

While it was rare to have pitchers to be invited to all the camps last year, some pitchers did get added in the alternate site or as late as the Instructional league in order to get competitive reps. With the case of Hjelle however, he was not added to any camps at all. While some might speculate about why, it is important to note that Hjelle became a father only last year and I feel the Giants showed class in order for Sean to be with his child and have him throw simulated innings at home while taking care of his newborn.

I feel that Hjelle would not get much though in pitching in Instructional league because he is probably the most advanced pitching prospect that the Giants have in the farm system. While the name of the game is low approach angles and ride up in the zone, Hjelle is one of those unicorns where he peppers the lower half of the zone with his fastball because his natural height allows him to create such a difficult time for a hitter to hit it with the modern bat path.

Even though Hjelle is not the nastiest pitcher in terms of velocity and movement nor he is the most surgical pitcher in the organization, he does have the greatest potential to stick as a starter because of his pitchability and innate deception. Putting him in the bullpen might not be very optimal for him as pitch quality plays more than pitch location. Then, why not throw him out 2 times in the batting order where hitters will struggle to get used to his innate release height?

12. Luis Toribio 3B

PV 30 | FV 45

Tl;dr: Toribio has great offensive upside with the ability to hit the ball with authority but with a big question about his potential defensive home.

People say that the way Toribio swings reminds them of a young Robinson Cano swinging his lefty stick hitting bombs to the short porch at Yankee Stadium. And in plenty of ways, I can see that when looking at the way Toribio deliberately loads like Cano and the smooth, rotational swing that they both employ. Toribio squares up the ball really well, hitting balls with some of the highest exit velocities in the Minors, but he’s hitting it for extra bases rather than home runs. A better effort to lift the ball and hit it in front more could pay dividends for the young man.

I never have any issue with his bat. I think he will impact the game offensively in both hitting for average, taking base on balls, and hitting for power. However, his defense is a liability and that’s why I have him this low. His range is limited, he does not fully utilize his plus arm strength at the hot corner because he struggles to have a balanced platform when he throws to other bases, and he projects to slow down further as he gets older. The Giants did have him play second base, a less taxing defensive position, in the intra-squads but he still looks like a novice at the position as expected. Where he ends up defensively is still a big question mark in my books and if he can never find any stable footing in the infield, an option could be in the corner outfield.

13. Gregory Santos RH SP

FB 60 / 70 | SL 60 / 60 | CH 45 / 55 | CMD 35 / 40

PV 30 | PV 45

Tl;dr: Now back healthy, Santos has some of the best three-pitch combos in the farm system but will need to finish hitters better and locate consistently to reach his potential as a big-league starter.

It is so easy to forget that this fella is just the age of a draft-eligible junior and yet after one injury-plagued season was left off the place of the top prospectdom (like I did). However, one blurb from Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and ATF’s Marc Delucchi told us a really important thing: Gregory Santos is back with a vengeance.

Reports about Santos from the Instructional League are glowing bright: the right arm where he was bothered by bouts of shoulder issues in 2019 is stronger than ever, with him throwing up to 100 MPH with his fastball while his slider looked as crisp as ever, flashing plus-plus often with two-plane break. However, he only pitched strictly an inning of work as a reliever so it looks like he is throwing max out there as opposed to the mid-90s heater that he was throwing a couple of years ago in a starting role while still having the same, projection-less frame for the past couple of years.

A year ago, I did my best to find the reason why Santos failed to strike out as many batters as you could hope for with this kind of nasty three-pitch arsenal. I found out that based on a combination of factors such as hitters attacking him early in the count, Santos failing to finish off hitters in favorable pitcher’s counts, and him generally having inconsistent control are the answers. Overall, it’s not a good mixture to have that would limit Santos’ role moving forward. However, his stuff is just too good to give up on development-wise and will be ridden as a starter this year and could have his breakout year now that he’s fully healthy once again.

If the command shows up even better than expected and starts striking out hitters at an expected clip, he has a good shot to be the best pitching prospect in the organization at the end of this season.

14. Casey Schmitt 3B

PV 30 | FV 45

Tl;dr: Now focused on being a position player full-time, Schmitt offers huge potential with his defensive prowess and is taking steps towards unlocking his power potential at the plate.

I have become a big fan of Schmitt’s game ever since he was selected by the Giants in the second round in last year’s draft. No BSing around, the Giants will have him play third base full-time which is huge for his development because his ceiling as a third baseman is tremendous rather than have him play two-way where his pitching potential will not be impactful at the big-league level.

While there are little questions about his defense aside from some footwork issues when fielding the position, it is on the offensive side of the ball, specifically hitting for power, where plenty of people criticize Schmitt for. While majority of his issues stemmed from his rather bat path and injuries, Schmitt has potentially even more than average raw power to tap into and the Giants are on it by having him to intentionally hit more flyballs. In the Instructional league, Schmitt made adjustments to his batting stance with a more relaxed set-up and quiet hands all throughout.

There is a classic adage in baseball that power comes last, and it might be what’s happening with Schmitt. He is a really good defender at the hot corner with an already solid looking approach and hitting ability. It’s all about turning those doubles into home runs in full season ball. I am very excited with what he can do in 2021 and if those efforts do come into fruition, he will be inside my top 10, book it.

15. Tristan Beck RH SP

FB 55 / 55 | CB 55 / 60 | CH 50 / 55 | SL 40 / 45 | CMD 40 / 45

PV 40 | FV 45

Tl;dr: Beck has starter traits with his ability to change eye levels with his fastball-curve combo effectively with an improving changeup but has relief risk with his slight frame.

Ever since acquired by the Giants from the Braves along with Dan Winkler for Mark Melancon, Beck has been nothing short of impressive in the past 24 months. Even though he only pitched in half a season with the San Jose Lil’ Gigantes, he’s been invited to plenty of camps, from the Fall League up to the Instructional league.

The lanky right-hander has bought into the Giants pitching philosophy of attacking the eye level of the batter by scrapping his two-seamer and focused on his four-seamer as well as working on adding a sharper bite with his knuckle curve. And the results are glorious, where fared well in the Fall League and was impressive in the Instructs. Even though his fastball only topped 95 MPH in Instructs, it had good vertical movement that complimented his plus knuckle curve very well. His changeup showed promise too when he was attacking the lower half of the zone.

Armed with the classic overhead windup, Beck is one of the most polished pitchers in the organization that can work as a reliever as soon as late-2021 where his fastball-curve combo will be a knockout combination and alleviating worries about his rather average at best command and his slight frame. It would not be shocking for me if they will trot out Beck as a full-time starter because his changeup has potential to become above-average. It is just a matter of piling up the innings for Beck.

16. Jairo Pomares OF

PV 30 | PV 40

Tl;dr: Pomares has the ability to make hard contact consistently and has more power than anyone else thinks but a choppy defense limits his value.

The case of Jairo Pomares is interesting. He was not invited to the United States to participate in the Instructional league due to visa issues so there was little information about his whereabouts. Nonetheless, he was poised to hit the ground running in 2021 as an advanced hitting prospect.

Known for surprising the general public, Pomares was thought of as a hitter with sneaky pop. However, I see him as a very ripped athlete, with a well-toned body that he maintains well and I was not surprised when he was hitting homers to the opposite field in the Arizona League in 2019. He will still be a hit-over-power type of player thanks to his impressive eye-hand coordination and strong wrists to make consistent hard contact.

The key for Pomares is to start to show that he can consistently tap into his power in a full season (which I think he can do). But most especially of all, he has to show that he can defend enough in the outfield to not be a liability. He struggled with reads and only has fringy arm strength. There are obvious issues Pomares once he struggles to consistently hit (he does not a plus power tool to profile as a DH if the defense continues to be a liability) but I am betting on the optimist side of things.

17. Nick Swiney LH SP

FB 45 / 50 | CH 45 / 60 | CB 45 / 55 | CMD 40 / 55

PV 30 | FV 40

Tl;dr: Swiney has impressive secondary offerings as well as command of his arsenal but unlocking more velocity will be the key for him to become a big-league starter.

Swiney was drafted by the Giants as a seemingly hint towards drafting more towards funk and pitchability and we will teach you the techniques towards getting more velocity instead of the classic “draft throwers and teaching them to pitch” ideology. In doing so, the Giants did have a program towards making Swiney throw his fastball by focusing on his lower half upwards. The training does not only help Swiney throw harder but also potentially improve his overall command because his rather soft-landing leg in his mechanics hurts both his velocity and control.

Heading towards the 2021 season, Swiney’s looking to continue the success that he’s had when he was a starting pitcher in a pandemic-shortened 2020 season with NC State. If Swiney shows up looking in great shape and have his fastball not dip to the 80s anymore while hitting 95 MPH often, he will definitely get a bump up this list because his fastball has elite metrics and his secondary pitches are also really good compliments to his fastball.

18. Camilo Doval RH RP

FB 60 / 70 | SL 60 / 70 | CMD 35 / 40

FV 30 | FV 40

Tl;dr: As nasty as anyone in the system, Doval possesses a filthy, spin-powered fastball-slider combo in an unusual arm slot to expect high octane cheddar.

If I can summarize Doval in one phrase, that’s “electrically wild”. A darling of the radar guns and the Rapsodo machines for so long, Doval has been crowned as the potential Giants closer in the coming years, and for good reason as he has potentially the nastiest stuff out of any pitcher in the system right now aside from maybe Gregory Santos.

Simply put, Doval is Sergio Romo on steroids. With a whippy, nearly sidearm release point, Doval pumps 97-101 MPH cutters with nearly 3000 RPM that the coaches tried to make the pitch more consistent in quality by emphasizing consistent finger pressure. He compliments the pitch with a wipeout slider that comes from the same arm slot as the cutter and is a dandy of a pitch.

With that kind of delivery, you will never try to deviate from it too much so Doval might not possess plus command, leaning towards a fringy-average control. However, his pitches do not need to be located surgically to be dominant so Doval will still be a potentially dominant relief arm. He will likely not move too high on my list anytime soon as a full-time reliever but he is the highest ranked prospect in the organization that I think will be slam-dunk relievers.

19. Blake Rivera RH RP

FB 55 / 60 | CB 60 / 60 | SPL 40 / 45 | CMD 40 / 45

PV 30 | FV 40

Tl;dr: Rivera perfectly suits the relief role with his fastball-knuckle curve combo and will not have to worry about hitting his spots often.

While it is still relatively early in his career, we are starting to see more and more of a chance that Rivera is going to be a reliever if he ever reaches the big leagues. We all know that the stuff that comes out of Rivera’s right hand is ridiculously good, with his fastball and curveball possessing plus spin rates. Also, in one-inning bursts, Rivera can pump his fastball up to 97 MPH in the Instructional League and his knuckle curve is a power one which is a better fit in today’s game as opposed to the rainbow. The splitter, while having flashes of becoming a decent third pitch, might be shelved for Rivera to hone in on his fastball-curve combo.

The key for Rivera heading into the 2021 season is to stay healthy and be more consistent with his control of his pitches, as he’s going to be all over the zone more often than not. There are also concerns of his fastball having a bit of cutting action rather than a true, vertical break that could not be a fit on what his arsenal might suggest (still learning things about pitch design). Rivera has the tools to become a stud bullpen piece with the Giants at his peak.

20. Logan Wyatt 1B

PV 30 | FV 40

Tl;dr: Wyatt has a really good eye at the plate but his stock as a first baseman is volatile due to the questions surrounding his ability to hit for power in a full season.

A poster child of what the new Giants regime has been preaching in terms of having great K:BB ratios and high OBP numbers, making an update on Wyatt’s grades proved to be rather difficult as there’s only limited new content to bank on (as with most prospects in general). However, Wyatt’s made plenty of swing changes in a better effort to unlock the power out of his swing.

While his rather short appearance with the GreenJackets in 2019 showed us a much more compact set-up with a pronounced, uphill bat path, videos of him in the Instructs as well as his early plate appearances in Spring Training has him incorporating his lower half a bit more by having a slight leg kick. The power in his swing is still mostly generated by his upper half, but the small iterations could pay off in the regular season. I also caught a glimpse to his very advanced strike zone awareness in his at-bat in ST when he hit a SF against the Dodgers. After he took a very close 0-2 down and away fastball, the same pitch was thrown once again. But this time, it was thrown just inside the zone and Wyatt made good contact with hit and drove it to left-center field. His eye was also in great display in his two at-bats against the Brewers, where he took the counts to full after getting to two strikes.

The jury is still out there on whether Wyatt can unlock his power and a failure could mean most of his stock as a prospect will plummet. There’s still a couple of years for Wyatt to figure it out but the pandemic really hampered his chance to prove it right away.

21. Kervin Castro RH SP

FB 55 / 60 | SL 55 / 60 | CH 40 / 50 | CMD 40 / 50

PV 30 | FV 40

Tl;dr: Castro broke out in 2020 after an uptick in his fastball that now reaches 97 MPH and a curveball that now flashes plus along with his solid changeup and good feel for his arsenal.

Castro impressed in Salem-Keizer in 2019 with his pitching prowess after the former catcher had Tommy John surgery that made him miss two seasons. He worked out in 2020 as ready as ever when he received the call to be a part of the Instructs roster and he did not disappoint, impressing the coaches with his stuff and physique.

When I talk about Castro’s physique, I am not talking about him all ripped and looking like chiseled by Michelangelo. Instead, he became slimmer after a rather stocky frame in a Volcanoes uniform a couple of years ago. That helped his fastball tick up to 97 MPH in Instructs, while worked hard on spinning a curveball that was average at best before to now flashing plus (although I noticed recently that he’s calling it a slider). The changeup looked alright as well. Castro has a methodical delivery that allows him to throw his repertoire with command and work the eye level of the batter with his pitches.

Raved by coaches as an advanced pitching prospect, Castro figures to move quickly through the system if he focuses on becoming a fastball-curveball reliever and might even enjoy an uptick in velocity. However, I still think that there’s potential for him to continue his path as a starter as his feel for his three-pitch-mix is good enough to stick two to three times through a batting order.

22. Adrian Sugastey C

PV 20 | FV 40

Tl;dr: Sugastey is the best of the rest in terms of catcher depth in the system because of his standout athleticism while showing flashes of power potential as well as great potential defensively.

In the loaded 2019 international class that featured the names of Aeverson Arteaga and Esmerlin Vinicio, I see Sugastey as the one with the highest ceiling and is the most exciting of them all. Not only because he plays catcher and I do love catchers, but most especially of all, he is advanced enough to play in the Instructional league in Arizona this year.

Armed with a line-drive swing, Sugastey already produces exit velocities north of 110 MPH as a teenager. He does not look stocky and is very athletic so there’s potential for more power in the future. Defensively, he has a plus arm with smooth glove-to-hand transfer and is quick to get out of the box while also having a developing ability to frame pitches and handle velocity. Sugastey is also lauded for his leadership and ability to build rapport with pitchers.

Even though there are other well-lauded catchers in the farm system outside of the obvious top two of Bart and Bailey, I have Sugastey above the rest because of his athletic ability and his promising offensive potential while also having the necessary traits of playing catcher at the next level. He should play in the Arizona League this year and if the bat shows up right away, there’s a chance that he will the best prospect that comes out of this international class.

23. Grant McCray OF

PV 20 | FV 40

Tl;dr: The lanky McCray is a defense-first prospect with the range and instincts to play center field, and has a pretty advanced approach at the plate but lacks the power projection.

I was really high on McCray as I picked him as one of the potential breakout prospects had the normal 2020 season happened. Unfortunately, we just have to settle with his Fall League appearance but I am still really high on him because the tools are promising.

McCray has the potential to stick at center field because of his tremendous range and his ability to track the ball well and has a strong arm to boot. Even though McCray played other sports in high school, he showed immense potential as a hitter because of his strong walk rates and his strike zone discipline while also not playing baseball full-time. Have him focus on the sport (and he will) and we will see those improve even more.

The only issue that McCray has is the present lack of strength, resulting to mediocre at best exit velocities and a present questionable bat control. Once McCray hits the weight room, we should see an uptick in not just hard contact but also in terms of hitting consistency. He currently projects as a 4^th OF-type with a leadoff profile of creating havoc on the bases with his speed. If he starts to hit for more power though, we might be talking about a player with a complete set of tools.

24. Aeverson Arteaga SS

PV 20 | FV 40

Tl;dr: Arteaga has the best chance to stick at shortstop in the farm system with all the tools and polish defensively but his offensive impact might be limited.

The 2019 international class for the Giants is starting to come along, with Sugastey looking like the most promising of them all while Arteaga is not too far behind with several top names on the verge of joining the two. It was interesting to know that the Giants invited Arteaga to the Instructional league camp in Arizona last fall.

Arteaga’s calling card is his defense, where he has the range, athleticism (his father was a former professional basketball player, guess who he was named after), soft hands, and the arm strength to make all the throws and make spectacular plays over the middle of the diamond. I firmly believe that if he will get to the Majors, it will be because of his defense. His offensive impact though is a little worrying, where I am unsure whether he will fill out his frame once he matures and his overall approach is still very raw.

A defense-first prospect is certainly a prospect that intrigues me but it is often a big red flag for me if the offensive impact is limited. That’s where I am with Arteaga at this point. He needs to prove that his bat is mature and will be able to at least be competent with the bat to become a big leaguer as a defensive replacement.

25. Sam Long LH RP

FB 60 / 60 | CB 55 / 55 | CH 35 / 35 | CMD 45 / 50

PV 35 | FV 40

Tl;dr: Long projects as a lefty reliever in the big leagues with his fastball-curve combination that is coming out of a rather funky but high-effort arm action.

The first time that I have heard of Sam Long is in this year’s Spring Training where he impressed plenty of people with the hype of stuff that he had in that game and I was shocked to know that he is still a prospect. Signed as a minor league FA in what is another shrewd move by the current regime in adding talent, Long can potentially be a quick-mover and help the Giants bullpen in the next 18 months.

So why does the Giants take a shot at a 25-year-old left hander that never pitched above AA ball? Well, Long has the two pitches that Giants coaches really love to have for their pitchers: a four-seam fastball that can reach up to 97 MPH with good vertical break, and an above-average power curveball to change the eye level of the batter. He has a changeup as well but it is not a competitive pitch to throw. With an arm action that definitely screams reliever, Long has solid feel for his pitches and the ability to locate it in the strike zone.

Long projects to help the Giants in a relatively short time by pitching exclusively out of the pen. He projects as a potentially good lefty reliever but his age and his definite relief profile works against him.

26. RJ Dabovich RH RP

FB 55 / 60 | SL 55 / 60 | CB 45 / 50 | CMD 35 / 45

FV 30 | FV 40

Tl;dr: Dabovich has a starter repertoire but will now focus to his fastball and curveball moving forward to move quickly through the system as a power reliever.

27. Carson Ragsdale RH RP

FB 50 / 55 | CB 55 / 60 | CH 40 / 40 | CMD 35 / 45

PV 30 | FV 40

Tl;dr: Ragsdale was used as a starter in an abbreviated 2020 season but his role will be as a reliever where his fastball could tick up and pair with his hammer curveball.

The two are like brothers from another mother so I have decided to them up together to reduce redundancies. Both are from the same draft class, drafted in the same round (4^th round) and only a pick apart (Dabovich at 114^th, Ragsdale at 116^th), and both have similar best pitches (fastball-breaking ball).

While Dabovich owns the velocity title so far (up to 98 MPH with his fastball with promising metrics while Ragsdale can only reach 96 MPH), Ragsdale can catch up velocity-wise because of his projected one-inning bursts and mechanical adjustments (shortening up his arm circle). While Ragsdale has the upper hand on the curveball that flashes plus, it will be interesting how Dabovich approaches his curveball since his best secondary pitch, his slider, will be shelved in order to prioritize the pitch that tunnels better with his fastball from his over-the-top release point.

Both project as a reliever with pretty similar stuff and command projection. The only thing I am pretty curious about Ragsdale is whether his tall levers will have his fastball work well up in the zone or play like Hjelle and have the heater thrown at the knees. Expect the two to become pretty quick movers through the system.

28. Teng Kai-Wei RH SP

FB 45 / 50 | SL 45 / 50 | CB 50 / 50 | CH 40 / 45 | CMD 45 / 60

PV 30 | FV 40

Tl;dr: Teng’s profile as a finesse pitcher without a standout secondary pitch really hurts his profile but if he can develop one of his four-pitch mix, there’s big league starter potential.

Having a country halfway around the glove to call home is a tough thing to ask, but fortunately, Teng is a pitcher so getting his reps in his home country of Taiwan is much easier when compared to a hitter. He was not invited to the Instructional league as a result but is participating in the Spring Training camp where he already made a pitching appearance.

Teng does not have any pitch that projects as better than average but the guy has a great ability to throw into spots accurately that helps boost his profile a lot. Working on having his fastball generating more vertical break as a compliment to his curveball is the key for Teng to achieve success in the high Minors.

Do not mistake Teng’s rather doughy appearance as unathletic, as he is just big for his size and is nimble and well-coordinated on the mound. Teng will not wow you with his numbers this year, but he will be a solid pitching prospect that will post good numbers because of his very high baseball IQ and a knack to game plan his opponent mid at-bat with his surgically thrown pitches.

29. Ricardo Genoves C

PV 30 | FV 40

Tl;dr: Genoves has backup catching potential due to his stout defense behind the dish and the ability to build chemistry with his pitching staff but lacks significant thump in his offensive game.

In what seems like forever, the Venezuelan is starting to put it all together rather nicely and he is just going to enter his age-22 season this year which is crazy to think because Ricardo signed in 2015 together with Lucius Fox (remember that name?).

Genoves’ calling card ever since he was a teenager was handling velocity very well (as Anderson Espinoza’s catcher) and has continued to improve on other facets of his game as well behind the plate. Defensively, he poses as a big target for pitchers to throw to, his right arm is a cannon and often accurate, his rapport with his batterymate is often on point, and is an excellent blocker of balls in dirt. Offensively, he’s starting to tap into his power with his slightly uphill stroke but still lacks the bat speed and the general hitting acumen that separates better catching prospects.

It is now pretty clear that Genoves’ role in the Majors will be as a backup catcher where he could enjoy a nice career because of his defensive acumen and his offensive profile is akin to other backup and even some veteran everyday catchers who played for years. Whether it will be with the Giants or with another team remains to be seen since the depth of the organization for catchers is at an all-time high.

30. Trevor McDonald RH SP

FB 50 / 55 | SL 45 /55 | CH 40 / 45 | CMD 40 / 50

PV 20 | FV 40

Tl;dr: McDonald features a unique arm action and overall mechanics, and has a solid arsenal but there are concerns whether his size and arm action could be better suited for a relief role long-term.

One of the most promising lower-level pitching prospects in the organization, McDonald showed the fruits of his labor during the quarantine with his Instructional league appearance in a way to get competitive reps

McDonald kind of reminded me of former big-league closer Huston Street body-wise, looking a bit shorter than his listed height that is more accentuated because of his drop and drive nature of his delivery, working hard on his back leg. His arm action is interesting because of its rather big arm circle and he reaches back a good bit before releasing the ball in a true three-quarters arm slot.

Even though McDonald’s arm action screams reliever, his stuff is more fit as a starter, where his low-90s fastball has good sink and draws whiffs and his slider flashes plus at times that tunnels well with his sinker. He has a changeup that he is working on that projects as a solid third pitch. I would be giving McDonald all the chances in the rotation to see if the stuff holds up every 5 days but there’s serious relief risk two to three years from now.

Thank you for reading my Pre-season Top 30 Prospect list!

Giant Prospective

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

2021 Pre-Season SF Giants Top 30 Prospect List