We are now on the heat of the 2015 season and a lot of the best prospects in baseball have been promoted to the Show and are living up to the expectations and the hype so far. For the Giants, there are prospects that are contributing well so far. Hunter Strickland, Matt Duffy, Andrew Susac, and Chris Heston are all doing well this year. So much for the consensus saying that the Giants have a barren farm system. It is a great organization for developing prospects and once they reached the Majors, they are performing better than what everyone expected.
In this series of scouting reports, I'll scout the top prospects of the Giants until the end of the season. I'll point out their mechanics, my grades for their tools and my ceiling and floor of the prospects just like the scouting reports that I wrote for Phil Bickford, Chris Shaw, and Andrew Suarez. The grades might change either be better or worse in the future (as soon as the end of the season.) The player's stats are going to show when you click on their name and courtesy of FanGraphs.
Christian Arroyo SS (A+)
6'1" 180 lbs. R/R Video: Credits to MLB.com and David Lee
The Giants are as unpredictable as anyone in terms of the MLB Draft, proven in 2013 with the surprise selection of Christian Arroyo. Arroyo's body is a big but compact one with more lean than buff in his frame. He got a slightly open stance at the plate with a pretty wide stance but having a good balance on the batter's box. There are two videos because there are different versions regarding his leg kick. The one on the MLB.com is similar to Buster Posey's leg kick and the David Lee video is what DrB's describing on his Down on the Farm article on May 30, a slight leg lift but nonetheless, he creates little but noticeable load on his back leg on his leg kick. The bat head stays close to his head on his leg kick and he got lightning-quick wrists and impressive eye-hand coordination, generating a short, compact swing but stays direct to the ball, generating a close to plus hit tool. His follow-through allows him to get out of the box as quickly as possible, similar to former Ranger Michael Young, a pretty good comparison to Arroyo's tools overall.
Arroyo's frame can still put in a little more muscle and he can hit up to 15 homers in the future. But I am not expecting him to reach that since it's not his game. His game is to get base hits and get on base and he knows it personally so I am expecting more doubles and less homers in the future. He might be a little too aggressive on the box, generating little walks but many strikeouts which limits his hit tool to above-average for now. He possesses surprising quickness but he's overall speed is just average and average athleticism. He got the arm to play at shortstop but he'll switch positions either to second or third base but he got a good glove . He needs to be more patient and selective at the plate to achieve his plus hit potential but he possesses a plus-plus 6th tool, his overall intelligence that will help him to achieve his potential as a good position player for the Giants in the future.
My Grades: Hit 55+ | Power 50 | Speed 45 | Arm 50 | Field 45+
Ceiling: Possible All-Star player Floor: Bench player ETA: Sept. 2017/2018
Tyler Beede RHP (AA)
6'4" 200 lbs. R/R Video: Credits to Wilson Karaman and MiLB.com
Everybody knows the story of Tyler Beede. From his decision to pass up going to the Blue Jays in 2011 to having a good college career at Vanderbilt, not to mention his inconsistencies especially his walk rates before being drafted by the Giants. He's an intimidating presence at the mound and he got a chance to add more muscle to his body to make him more durable. His mechanics right now are different from what he's using in his Vandy days. It is now more similar to his mechanics in his HS days but it's now much simpler. (Video here. Full credits to Juditha70.) He starts his windup with his hands on his waist, a simple side step, then a toned leg kick that reaches his chest. His delivery is a traditional drop and drive delivery with good tempo and he does a great job driving his body towards the plate. He got a wide arm swing that's safer than his HS arm path that bodes well to his health in his arm especially his elbow. He generates great extension to improve the perceived velocity against the hitters. He lands closed and releases his pitches in a high three-quarter release point and in a north-south finish with a great follow-through and great energy transfer. His follow-through doesn't place him in a great fielding position but his athleticism will cover that up.
His four-seam fastball his a plus pitch that will reach in the upper-90s though he uses his sinker nowadays registered in the low-90s and I have read that it's a "big-league ready" pitch that generates tons of groundballs and weak contact, a potential plus pitch as well especially with the downward plane that he throws his pitch plus the movement. He still throws his best velocity in case of a strikeout situation or changing eye levels that easily overpowers hitters. His changeup is also a potential plus pitch, with similar arm speed with his fastball and it got hard sink when thrown right. He throws a cutter that DrB said that it's a terrific pitch that gives hitters another side of the equation and throws it sparingly, I'll say it's an above-average pitch. I haven't seen his curveball yet in videos this year but it got good, sharp break but it's inconsistent from a video of him from Giant Potential and in college as well. The improved mechanics made his command to have a potential above-average grade for me based on his BB numbers. He's the top prospect of the Giants right now for good reason. His command issue is solved, he's absorbing all of the things that the Giants coaches teaches him and the results are showing on paper. He's confident with his ability, and I love it. I expect him to graduate really soon as long as he stays healthy which I think he could and join MadBum at the top of the rotation.
My Grades: 4SFB/SNK 65 | CH 55+ | CUT 55 | CB 55 | CMD 50+
Ceiling: #2 Starter Floor: #4-5 Starter ETA: Sept. 2015/Early 2016
Adalberto Mejia LHP (AA)
6'3" 195 lbs. R/L Video: Credits to Giant Potential
As I wrote on my top 10 prospect list, Mejia is a mess last year. He got hit hard last year as a 20 year old in AA. He got suspended by taking an illegal weight loss drug. Now, he's a year older, and all of the issues that he faced are clearly in the rear view mirror as he come back really strong in 2015. At 6'3" 195, he definitely looks like he's bigger than what is weight is telling. It might be the cause for using the illegal drug. He stands on the 3B side of the rubber. He starts his windup like Madison Bumgarner, his glove already at the level of his head and taking a small step to the side. He got a sound leg kick, his back turned towards the plate a bit, and a good balance in his gathering point. He then drives and slowly opens but his right foot stays closed until landing even though his body seems to open but it's a positive sign. His arm path is sound and exhibits no inverted W. He throws in a 3/4 release point and with a good follow through. I'll compare his mechanics to Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano.
He got a low-90s fastball with good sink and arm-side run due to his release point where he gets a good amount of groundballs. When he throws his fastball high, the sink reduces naturally and generating flyballs. He got a great changeup with similar arm movement as his fastball with tremendous sink. It's like a sinker but slower, causing hitters to be out in front of it really well but he's having problems of overthrowing it. He got a solid curveball with good break on it to keep lefty hitters honest but I can see in his follow through the curve grip. In the MLB.com scouting report, it is written that he got a slider and I saw the pitch on the video on 2013 but when he returned in his first start, he only got a three-pitch mix to work with according to this article from MiLB.com. His slider in the video above is an good pitch in my eyes with some late break. If he's reserving his slider for later in the season he got a good four-pitch mix. He pounds the strike zone well and repeats his delivery well, allowing him to have good command and throw quality pitches and his feel for pitching can allow him to have even better command in the future. In the article, it is written that he's throwing with confidence and the level of composure that pitching coach Steve Kline has never seen from him before. He's on a mission to prove that he belongs to the big leagues and the stats are backing him up. He's back with a composed vengeance.
My Grades: FB 60 | CH 60 | CB 50 | SL (if ever) 50+ | CMD 50+
Ceiling: #3 Starter Floor: #4-5 Starter ETA: Mid-2016/2017
This ends part 1 of my scouting reports for the Giants prospects. I hope you learned more on the scouting side of the equation in terms of our prospects and I hope you enjoyed reading it. Part 2 will be released soon, with I think another 3 players (depends on how long I'm going to write it) and will be as detailed as this part. Cheers!
In this series of scouting reports, I'll scout the top prospects of the Giants until the end of the season. I'll point out their mechanics, my grades for their tools and my ceiling and floor of the prospects just like the scouting reports that I wrote for Phil Bickford, Chris Shaw, and Andrew Suarez. The grades might change either be better or worse in the future (as soon as the end of the season.) The player's stats are going to show when you click on their name and courtesy of FanGraphs.
Christian Arroyo SS (A+)
6'1" 180 lbs. R/R Video: Credits to MLB.com and David Lee
The Giants are as unpredictable as anyone in terms of the MLB Draft, proven in 2013 with the surprise selection of Christian Arroyo. Arroyo's body is a big but compact one with more lean than buff in his frame. He got a slightly open stance at the plate with a pretty wide stance but having a good balance on the batter's box. There are two videos because there are different versions regarding his leg kick. The one on the MLB.com is similar to Buster Posey's leg kick and the David Lee video is what DrB's describing on his Down on the Farm article on May 30, a slight leg lift but nonetheless, he creates little but noticeable load on his back leg on his leg kick. The bat head stays close to his head on his leg kick and he got lightning-quick wrists and impressive eye-hand coordination, generating a short, compact swing but stays direct to the ball, generating a close to plus hit tool. His follow-through allows him to get out of the box as quickly as possible, similar to former Ranger Michael Young, a pretty good comparison to Arroyo's tools overall.
Arroyo's frame can still put in a little more muscle and he can hit up to 15 homers in the future. But I am not expecting him to reach that since it's not his game. His game is to get base hits and get on base and he knows it personally so I am expecting more doubles and less homers in the future. He might be a little too aggressive on the box, generating little walks but many strikeouts which limits his hit tool to above-average for now. He possesses surprising quickness but he's overall speed is just average and average athleticism. He got the arm to play at shortstop but he'll switch positions either to second or third base but he got a good glove . He needs to be more patient and selective at the plate to achieve his plus hit potential but he possesses a plus-plus 6th tool, his overall intelligence that will help him to achieve his potential as a good position player for the Giants in the future.
My Grades: Hit 55+ | Power 50 | Speed 45 | Arm 50 | Field 45+
Ceiling: Possible All-Star player Floor: Bench player ETA: Sept. 2017/2018
Tyler Beede RHP (AA)
6'4" 200 lbs. R/R Video: Credits to Wilson Karaman and MiLB.com
Everybody knows the story of Tyler Beede. From his decision to pass up going to the Blue Jays in 2011 to having a good college career at Vanderbilt, not to mention his inconsistencies especially his walk rates before being drafted by the Giants. He's an intimidating presence at the mound and he got a chance to add more muscle to his body to make him more durable. His mechanics right now are different from what he's using in his Vandy days. It is now more similar to his mechanics in his HS days but it's now much simpler. (Video here. Full credits to Juditha70.) He starts his windup with his hands on his waist, a simple side step, then a toned leg kick that reaches his chest. His delivery is a traditional drop and drive delivery with good tempo and he does a great job driving his body towards the plate. He got a wide arm swing that's safer than his HS arm path that bodes well to his health in his arm especially his elbow. He generates great extension to improve the perceived velocity against the hitters. He lands closed and releases his pitches in a high three-quarter release point and in a north-south finish with a great follow-through and great energy transfer. His follow-through doesn't place him in a great fielding position but his athleticism will cover that up.
His four-seam fastball his a plus pitch that will reach in the upper-90s though he uses his sinker nowadays registered in the low-90s and I have read that it's a "big-league ready" pitch that generates tons of groundballs and weak contact, a potential plus pitch as well especially with the downward plane that he throws his pitch plus the movement. He still throws his best velocity in case of a strikeout situation or changing eye levels that easily overpowers hitters. His changeup is also a potential plus pitch, with similar arm speed with his fastball and it got hard sink when thrown right. He throws a cutter that DrB said that it's a terrific pitch that gives hitters another side of the equation and throws it sparingly, I'll say it's an above-average pitch. I haven't seen his curveball yet in videos this year but it got good, sharp break but it's inconsistent from a video of him from Giant Potential and in college as well. The improved mechanics made his command to have a potential above-average grade for me based on his BB numbers. He's the top prospect of the Giants right now for good reason. His command issue is solved, he's absorbing all of the things that the Giants coaches teaches him and the results are showing on paper. He's confident with his ability, and I love it. I expect him to graduate really soon as long as he stays healthy which I think he could and join MadBum at the top of the rotation.
My Grades: 4SFB/SNK 65 | CH 55+ | CUT 55 | CB 55 | CMD 50+
Ceiling: #2 Starter Floor: #4-5 Starter ETA: Sept. 2015/Early 2016
Adalberto Mejia LHP (AA)
6'3" 195 lbs. R/L Video: Credits to Giant Potential
As I wrote on my top 10 prospect list, Mejia is a mess last year. He got hit hard last year as a 20 year old in AA. He got suspended by taking an illegal weight loss drug. Now, he's a year older, and all of the issues that he faced are clearly in the rear view mirror as he come back really strong in 2015. At 6'3" 195, he definitely looks like he's bigger than what is weight is telling. It might be the cause for using the illegal drug. He stands on the 3B side of the rubber. He starts his windup like Madison Bumgarner, his glove already at the level of his head and taking a small step to the side. He got a sound leg kick, his back turned towards the plate a bit, and a good balance in his gathering point. He then drives and slowly opens but his right foot stays closed until landing even though his body seems to open but it's a positive sign. His arm path is sound and exhibits no inverted W. He throws in a 3/4 release point and with a good follow through. I'll compare his mechanics to Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano.
He got a low-90s fastball with good sink and arm-side run due to his release point where he gets a good amount of groundballs. When he throws his fastball high, the sink reduces naturally and generating flyballs. He got a great changeup with similar arm movement as his fastball with tremendous sink. It's like a sinker but slower, causing hitters to be out in front of it really well but he's having problems of overthrowing it. He got a solid curveball with good break on it to keep lefty hitters honest but I can see in his follow through the curve grip. In the MLB.com scouting report, it is written that he got a slider and I saw the pitch on the video on 2013 but when he returned in his first start, he only got a three-pitch mix to work with according to this article from MiLB.com. His slider in the video above is an good pitch in my eyes with some late break. If he's reserving his slider for later in the season he got a good four-pitch mix. He pounds the strike zone well and repeats his delivery well, allowing him to have good command and throw quality pitches and his feel for pitching can allow him to have even better command in the future. In the article, it is written that he's throwing with confidence and the level of composure that pitching coach Steve Kline has never seen from him before. He's on a mission to prove that he belongs to the big leagues and the stats are backing him up. He's back with a composed vengeance.
My Grades: FB 60 | CH 60 | CB 50 | SL (if ever) 50+ | CMD 50+
Ceiling: #3 Starter Floor: #4-5 Starter ETA: Mid-2016/2017
This ends part 1 of my scouting reports for the Giants prospects. I hope you learned more on the scouting side of the equation in terms of our prospects and I hope you enjoyed reading it. Part 2 will be released soon, with I think another 3 players (depends on how long I'm going to write it) and will be as detailed as this part. Cheers!
Hey Wrenzie. When we drafted Beede, I thought there might be a simple "adjustment" in his motion. I'm no pro pitching coach, so just a simple opinion from somebody who probably shouldn't even be offering such. lol.
ReplyDeleteWell, I felt like I saw a slight "pause" in Beede's delivery right before his left foot would come down and plant. From my understanding of things like body mechanics and kinesiology... I think that disallowed Tyler from "getting on top" on his pitches... Maybe caused his throwing shoulder & arm to lag behind... In other words, got him "stuck" in a slightly "open" position. All sorts of things could happen from there. Stay slightly open or double-cross and close his upper body too quickly to compensate.
Anyways, from the bits I've seen on him this season... I feel like his motion looks much smoother. He's got a live arm, nice motion and action. Does plenty of good stuff, like "pitching thru a doorway" and getting his plant foot on-line to home plate. Staying on top quite nicely. Really seems to pitch "downhill" very, very well.
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Combining a few other points here.
Bickford should be a great follow. I really like the tool set he brings to develop off of. Lots of promise and potential. Crick, I continue to feel he's destined for the bullpen. We'll see.
I know many won't like my opinion here... But I think Crick would be a spectacular fireman. Throw 2-3 innings a couple times a week. I think we'll have other and probably better closer options from our farm. And even the 8th inning arms is a long list of probables. So, Crick going once through an order on 25-50 pitches... Maybe a bit more batters and/or pitches. Might be awesome for us in SF, with the stuff he can bring.
As always, YMMV. Cheers.
Thanks for the reply Mr. Carmot! I did notice something like that from Beede. The slight pause in his delivery. I thought that it will make him more balanced to the plate so that his eyes can focus on the mitt. If he lags his arm behind, he'll be inconsistent in his release point. That maybe what causes the walks and subpar starts. What I love about Beede is how good he drives the ball on a downhill plane and the finish is just great. Maybe they'll pick up the arm lag that you mention.
DeleteRegarding Cricky, I agree with you 100%. I wrote on my analysis on Kyle Crick about the possiblities of being a 2+ inning shutdown reliever like Dellin Betances of the Yankees. I wrote a whole lot there and we're on the same page regarding to Crick. Still hopeful for him to find the door to the promised land which is to be an ace for us. You can find my analysis on him before this article. It's pretty long I guess.
I'll definitely follow Bickford because I really, really love the guy. Thanks for visiting again!