It has been a while since I posted content here! I have been dialed in my studies and at last, the finals are finally over. Let's see if everything's all cleared so that I will graduate this June!
It is going to be a little more than 2 weeks of waiting and the 2018 MLB Draft will be underway. There are several industry sources who are providing valuable information with regards to the draft (some are free, some are paid and I am definitely not one of those industry sources) and with regards to the Giants, the media seems to be sure that the Giants are casting a wide net in this year's draft with their number 2 overall pick. In this edition, I'm going to try to sift through all of this chatter and show you my draft board for this year.
The Current Situation
The mock drafts have been as liquid as a surging tide with regards to the respective team's selections of course with the exception of the Tigers drafting Casey Mize who just left the pack and did his own thing on his way to the first overall pick. The Giants however, have been very hard to read (like they usually are) and have been tagged into almost everyone in the first 15 of the industry's big boards.
The big league club currently stands third in the standings behind the Diamondbacks and the Rockies and is below .500 as they just can't beat Pennsylvania. Right now with injuries to Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner, their rotation lacks the firepower to compete with the streaking Diamondbacks and Bud Black extracting the most of his young rotation. With a high payroll and a cast of old and expensive players, they are currently in a limbo with regards to the direction of the future and that is clearly reflected with how they are approaching this draft.
First Round Possibilities
Their number overall two pick will be very tough to predict and the best possible guess that the media would have for their selection will probably come hours before the draft itself. The best thing that they can do at the moment is to retool and give this thing a couple of years to go because I am sure that once Bryce Harper or Manny Machado would be available this offseason, the Giants will pounce on one of them, most probably Harper (and who would not?).
Hitters
I think that the biggest issue that the Giants will probably have is their lineup. With several fat contracts invested to players in their 30s, the lineup definitely needs plenty of juice so guys like Joey Bart, Alec Bohm, Travis Swaggerty and Jonathan India in the college ranks and Jarred Kelenic in the prep ranks all come to mind (I'm sorry Nick Madrigal, the Giants won't likely to draft you they said).
Bart has been paired up to the Giants in Jim Callis' latest MLB.com mock draft and I think that Bart would be a nice fit for the organization. I think we have to face the fact that Aramis Garcia would likely not be Buster Posey's long-term replacement behind the dish and so, a new face is needed in order for them to move Posey to first base once he shows he cannot do it as well as he is currently doing.
Bart's body is definitely very strong and should handle the rigors of catching long-term. Bart's defense is above-average to plus with smooth actions, soft glove, good framing technique and a strong arm that threw out 40% of baserunners in college and consistently punches in very good pop times. His strong frame also translates to some of the best raw power in the draft class. The power is towards all fields but his power comes more from his strength rather than his bat speed. He relies more on timing and rhythm rather than his athleticism in swinging the bat so his hip rotation varies. He doesn't settle for the fences as his swings typically more geared for producing contact. At best, he shows a good eye at the plate but has an aggressive approach and will swing and miss quite often due to a rather relaxed swinging style like Chris Davis of the Orioles.
I have taken a liking on Bart as of late because I believe that the power that he has is real and his defensive abilities as a catcher, his leadership, his actions and his arm, are very good stuff. Comparing him to Mike Zunino in college seems to be fair but the more I see Bart, the more I remember Salvador Perez more than Zunino.
Bohm's already a guy that I have mentioned here so I'll skip him up and talk about Swaggerty. The most complete college position player in the draft (right up there with India who I will talk about later), Swaggerty is a toolbox in the field, with above-average or better ratings with his power, speed, arm, defense and hit. There have been comparisons to Andrew Benintendi but in contrast to Benintendi's hitting ability, I am slightly critical with Swaggerty's ability to hit right now as he might be trying to sell for power (where he has above average raw power) but he's athletic at the box with an excellent plate discipline and has good feel for the barrel. The issue for me if the Giants will pick Swaggerty is probably I am fatigued with them probably selecting three consecutive outfielders with their first pick in the draft and one's already traded (Reynolds) but the other shows plenty of promise (Heliot). Drafting another might be too much for me to handle although I'm not going to be disappointed with them picking Swaggety as he's shown to be a good leadoff hitter with excellent on-base ability, ability to stick at center field and a good amount of juice in his swing.
The last college hitter that I'm going to dive into is Jonathan India. I remembered India as being a teammate of Lucius Fox back in high school, so there might be some previous scouting that the Giants have done on him in the past, and has some tools but went to Florida instead of signing in HS.
This season, India has been as good as any college player, especially in the SEC. India has above-average tools across the board. While he's not the slickest fielder, he can play anywhere in the dirt with a clean footwork, strong fielding fundamentals, quick reactions and a strong arm that is a fit at either third base, second base and at shortstop. He got above average speed and exploits that tool very well as he's a smart baserunner and can steal up to double digits. He has sneaky pop and hits the ball hard towards all fields even though his frame isn't a prototypical frame for third base. He works counts well but looks to have a free-swinging approach as he at times look lost at the plate, swinging badly. At best, he got plus bat speed with quick wrists and hips and good feel for the barrel with the ability to hit double-digit homers.
I like India a lot, probably as much as any hitters in this class and probably more than Alec Bohm right now due to the complete skill set that India offers, and signing India could save us some money to sign a high-priced HS arm in the second round. He can be compared to Nick Senzel in terms of the skillset but with less power and hit tool and his ceiling is probably more of the solid everyday player like a Ben Zobrist rather than a potential franchise cornerstone.
The last notable player that has a good chance to picked at number 2 is Jarred Kelenic. When you are talking about tools, Kelenic has it, the best collection of tools in the draft and as high of a ceiling as Mize. I don't like the Giants to pick Swaggerty not only because of the outfield "fatigue" but also Kelenic clearly has a higher ceiling.
Kelenic has potential five plus tools in his skillset. His track record and his feel for the barrel is tremendous, especially from a cold-weather state. His plus raw power translates to his bat, has plus bat speed from the left side and produces exit velocities above 100 MPH off his bat. He has above average speed (6.55 60 yard dash) that could lose a step if ever he adds more muscle to his frame and focus more as an offensive weapon than an all-around player. He has good instincts in center field and has a arm capable of throwing mid-90s so right field is a good home for him in any case he'll move out of center. His work ethic and tools are great fit for the Giants and pairing him up with Heliot will give the Giants a one-two punch of high-ceiling prospects to get excited.
Right now, I don't see other prep hitters such as Nolan Gorman, Brice Turang and Connor Scott to be picked at number 2.
Pitchers
The future of the Giants pitching is also something to be considered, much more so now that the Giants do often consider the "best player available" approach. Bumgarner's gonna get his pay check, Cueto's value has been justified but the money given to Samardzija and Melancon has been a painful one to digest. Tyler Beede and Andrew Suarez has yet to prove themselves to be a potential staple of the rotation, with Beede struggling with command and Suarez getting hit around pretty often.
I have already talked about Singer, Mize, McClanahan, Liberatore, Stewart and such and plenty actually quite changed after the first time I wrote about them. Based on more looks on him, Mize obviously separated himself thanks to his plus stuff (plus fastball, cutter, plus-plus splitter, above average slider, solid curveball) and command. His arm has been clean this year without any issues but I'm still wary of his arm action and if ever he'll get injured on his arm, it can easily be blamed on that.
Singer's slider isn't breaking as hard anymore while his changeup showed better promise at the moment and is performing at a high level now and the Giants could easily make him the number 2 pick due to their fetish on Cape Cod performers that plays and has a track record in the SEC. His sinker is still his bread and butter in the low to mid-90s and is a fearless competitor.
McClanahan has been up and down recently especially with his fastball command and doesn't really look a quick arm that the Giants can draft this year and have him promoted to the Majors right away. There's still no mistaking it though, his left arm is still plenty electric but the overall command has been iffy and there's a big relief risk that I attached on him.
Liberatore's stuff is still projecting to be one of the best, if not the best, choice for the Giants in this draft due to his college-like pitchability, projectability and feel for a vast assortment of pitches. His last start as a prep has him clocking his fastball at 94 MPH so his velocity held up throughout the course of spring.
Stewart's interesting but after taking a good look at him, I realized something that threw me off. I realized that he's the same as Lucas Giolito: plus-plus fastball and curveball, impressive height and projectability, and the same arm action. The same dropback in his arm swing that causes him to be late. In the case of Giolito's, that resulted in his fall from grace as a top prospect and has been suffering from command issues while pitching for the White Sox. I don't know in the case of Stewart but there are enough issues that I see on him to say that his command might not be as good as what other people are projecting him to be. Sure, I could be wrong and the Giants will fix up his command if ever they made him their selection but I'm just wary.
There's also news that the Giants front office attended Cole Winn's start and I scoured plenty of his videos and I am impressed, impressed enough to say that he's in par with Liberatore as the best prep pitching prospect that I have seen this year. He got everything that you want for a pitcher: the strong and athletic frame with some room to spare, fastball up to mid-90s that he can achieve deep in starts, both his slider and his curveball flashes plus with his curveball with sharp, 12-6 break and his slider has two-plane break that starts as a fastball. His changeup is still in its baby stages but flashes to be an average offering. His mechanics actually reminded me of Tyler Beede. It is smooth and clean but still needs polish to improve his command but he already got a good feel for the strike zone where he shows flashes of hitting his spots with his fastball and he throws his curveball for strikes while his slider is more of a chase pitch. The only worry that I have for him is that throwing plenty of curveballs and sliders this early could possibly jeopardize his elbow.
But I really, really like the positives that I have seen on him not just with his stuff but also with his pitchability. If the Giants will nab him at a cheaper price and swing for the fences with their next pick, that's a nice combination to have.
Round 2 Possibilities
I have never dug deep with the second round possibilities but it would be a nice addition to this post. Based on what I know, there's an obvious theme to the Giants second selections over the past 5 years regardless of who they pick in their first selections. I'm going to list them all below:
2013 - Ryder Jones
2014 - Aramis Garcia
2015 - Chris Shaw
2016 - Heath Quinn
2017 - Jacob Gonzalez
In case you haven't noticed it yet, the Giants drafted hitters who can hit for power but is a fringy or average defender in the long run. So far, that approach hasn't been panning out as hoped as Jones has been up and down throughout AAA and the big leagues and Garcia is currently in AA but he battled several injuries and the offensive value that he's supposed to bring right out the gate right after he got drafted hasn't shown up in the pro ranks. Shaw has been the top prospect for the Giants currently but has more value as a trade bait rather than an option long-term. Quinn was injured last year and is trying to find his groove in San Jose and Jacob's just too early to make an assessment on him.
But there's one thing for certain: they all have the similar profile. Following that same format for this year, the Giants should have their crosscheckers taking a look at all of the power hitters. List down and take a good look at these people because they all have similar profiles that fits the second selection profile: Griffin Conine, Grayson Jenista, Trevor Larnach, Noah Naylor, Seth Beer, Luken Baker, Triston Casas, Nick Decker, Ryder Green, Josh Breaux, Nick Northcut, and Brett Kinneman.
If in case they buck their own trend and picked up other prospects that doesn't fit the profile (I do hope), I think they'll go pitching. They do shy away from prospects with signability issues so guys like Mason Denaburg, Kumar Rocker, Will Banfield, Brett Hansesn, Adam Kloffenstein, and others but them selecting those prospects seems to be a possibility as long as they are confident that they can sign them. If ever they go pitching, take a good look at Gunnar Hoglund, Owen White, Lenny Torres, Jr. from the prep ranks and Kris Bubic, Tim Cate, Sean Hjelle and Griffin Roberts from the college ranks.
With the case that they go high school hitting, I would like them to pick up Jordan Groshans or Nick Schnell. Both of them has good potential and has been nice prospects to follow.
Whoo! That's a lot of names that I mentioned out! There are a lot of prospects to sort out and the front office got their work cut out for them. Me personally, I don't mind for them grabbing someone who's not gonna bust with their number 2 pick but unless they see the traits that made the front office grab Buster Posey a little more than a decade later in Joey Bart, I would like for them to grab either India, Winn, Liberatore, Bart, Kelenic or Bohm. I do hope they did their homework! I'm gonna do a full-blown report and review on the selections at the time of the draft especially for second round guys so I'm sorry if you expected for me to write up on them. There are just too many of them!
Next time, I'll make my review so far with regards to my preseason top 30 but for now, I hope you enjoyed reading!
There's also news that the Giants front office attended Cole Winn's start and I scoured plenty of his videos and I am impressed, impressed enough to say that he's in par with Liberatore as the best prep pitching prospect that I have seen this year. He got everything that you want for a pitcher: the strong and athletic frame with some room to spare, fastball up to mid-90s that he can achieve deep in starts, both his slider and his curveball flashes plus with his curveball with sharp, 12-6 break and his slider has two-plane break that starts as a fastball. His changeup is still in its baby stages but flashes to be an average offering. His mechanics actually reminded me of Tyler Beede. It is smooth and clean but still needs polish to improve his command but he already got a good feel for the strike zone where he shows flashes of hitting his spots with his fastball and he throws his curveball for strikes while his slider is more of a chase pitch. The only worry that I have for him is that throwing plenty of curveballs and sliders this early could possibly jeopardize his elbow.
But I really, really like the positives that I have seen on him not just with his stuff but also with his pitchability. If the Giants will nab him at a cheaper price and swing for the fences with their next pick, that's a nice combination to have.
Round 2 Possibilities
I have never dug deep with the second round possibilities but it would be a nice addition to this post. Based on what I know, there's an obvious theme to the Giants second selections over the past 5 years regardless of who they pick in their first selections. I'm going to list them all below:
2013 - Ryder Jones
2014 - Aramis Garcia
2015 - Chris Shaw
2016 - Heath Quinn
2017 - Jacob Gonzalez
In case you haven't noticed it yet, the Giants drafted hitters who can hit for power but is a fringy or average defender in the long run. So far, that approach hasn't been panning out as hoped as Jones has been up and down throughout AAA and the big leagues and Garcia is currently in AA but he battled several injuries and the offensive value that he's supposed to bring right out the gate right after he got drafted hasn't shown up in the pro ranks. Shaw has been the top prospect for the Giants currently but has more value as a trade bait rather than an option long-term. Quinn was injured last year and is trying to find his groove in San Jose and Jacob's just too early to make an assessment on him.
But there's one thing for certain: they all have the similar profile. Following that same format for this year, the Giants should have their crosscheckers taking a look at all of the power hitters. List down and take a good look at these people because they all have similar profiles that fits the second selection profile: Griffin Conine, Grayson Jenista, Trevor Larnach, Noah Naylor, Seth Beer, Luken Baker, Triston Casas, Nick Decker, Ryder Green, Josh Breaux, Nick Northcut, and Brett Kinneman.
If in case they buck their own trend and picked up other prospects that doesn't fit the profile (I do hope), I think they'll go pitching. They do shy away from prospects with signability issues so guys like Mason Denaburg, Kumar Rocker, Will Banfield, Brett Hansesn, Adam Kloffenstein, and others but them selecting those prospects seems to be a possibility as long as they are confident that they can sign them. If ever they go pitching, take a good look at Gunnar Hoglund, Owen White, Lenny Torres, Jr. from the prep ranks and Kris Bubic, Tim Cate, Sean Hjelle and Griffin Roberts from the college ranks.
With the case that they go high school hitting, I would like them to pick up Jordan Groshans or Nick Schnell. Both of them has good potential and has been nice prospects to follow.
Whoo! That's a lot of names that I mentioned out! There are a lot of prospects to sort out and the front office got their work cut out for them. Me personally, I don't mind for them grabbing someone who's not gonna bust with their number 2 pick but unless they see the traits that made the front office grab Buster Posey a little more than a decade later in Joey Bart, I would like for them to grab either India, Winn, Liberatore, Bart, Kelenic or Bohm. I do hope they did their homework! I'm gonna do a full-blown report and review on the selections at the time of the draft especially for second round guys so I'm sorry if you expected for me to write up on them. There are just too many of them!
Next time, I'll make my review so far with regards to my preseason top 30 but for now, I hope you enjoyed reading!
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