Tuesday, October 3, 2017

2018 MLB Draft: First Taste of What's To Come

It's been a long, sometimes unwatchable season for the San Francisco Giants that started with a walk-off loss and ended with a walk-off victory. September has been a grind for the fans and is a real test of patience and loyalty to the club. Me, I haven't really watched the final month of the season as I'm resting and dedicating myself into my studies.

While plenty are going to be watching the postseason, I'm honestly delighted that this will be the first time in my life as a Giants fan that the club will be picking at the top of the draft. The Pablo walk-off homer might have cost the Giants their first ever first overall selection in the 2018 MLB draft as well as more than $500,000 in bonus pool but with no clear-cut number 1 draft prospect, the Giants is still in a lofty spot to dream big and MASSIVELY (yes, massively) raise the bar of the talent in their pipeline with the first selection (2nd overall pick) almost guaranteeing a spot in the Top 100 prospect list in the mid-season (unless some guy named Heliot will shine even more next year). 

If you're not going to read this, you'll just probably think that draft the best possible guy that the Detroit Tigers will not pick. I can get behind that idea but with the way top teams have been playing the bonus pool game up top in the recent years, it's not a guarantee that the front office will just shell out slot money on their first round selection. 

With that said, here are my thoughts on the best of the best in next year's draft class.


The draft class is pitching-heavy at the top at both high school and college. 

The current favorite to be selected first overall is Brady Singer, Florida's top horse that took the CWS by storm and as long as he's going to be even better next year once he refines his changeup and include it in his repertoire more often, he'll join his former teammate Alex Faedo to spearhead the Tigers rebuild. For the Giants, there's also plenty of sense to select him. Compared to the top HS pitchers like Ethan Hankins, Kumar Rocker and Matt Liberatore, Singer fits better because he can move quickly as to be anticipated from a college pitcher and his ceiling as a potential Robin to Bumgarner's Batman makes sense as the rotation piece for the better part of the decade. As for the ceiling however, Singer's command hasn't been spot on plenty of occasions but ceiling's high for him and should always be in the conversation for the top pick. And doesn't it make perfect sense to pair up Singer and the Giants as another failed signing by the Blue Jays?

I don't really dig Shane McClanahan as a potential top 1 or 2 pick as I have some issues against him. I can admit that he has the big arm from the left side and his changeup looks like the best in college baseball from the left side with a potential good looking slider but I have issues with his high energy mechanics and the fact that he already had Tommy John (well, the surgery isn't as big of a deal as it is before) and he profiles similar to a Kyle Freeland-type of pitcher. 

As such, I prefer Casey Mize more than McClanahan. Yes, there are mechanics issues with Mize with his arm swing that resulted to injuries in his college career but his stuff (mid-90s fastball with plus or better split-change and solid slider) and most especially his potential above average or better command didn't wavered. If Mize will pick up steam and Singer got selected first, I'm going to be happy if the Giants will end up selecting Mize although there's big risk in both McClanahan and Mize.

After the college ranks, it's time to talk about the prep ranks. Hankins has the highest possible ceiling in this year's class as a potential ace with the frame and stuff of a frontline starter but he has issues in terms of being more of a one-trick pony with his potential 80 grade fastball and his wide variations of his windup will certainly entertain plenty including Giants fans as a reminiscent of Johnny Cueto but it might also be affecting his command projection. I think before all of his playing with his windup, he should get his breaking ball tightened up first and develop his almost non-existent changeup. 

Rocker works the same way but has that jacked up frame that is reminiscent of Tyler Kolek. He's slipped a bit due to poor performance in summer competition but the stuff will still be always there for him. I have issues with his command as well as his extreme maturity in terms of his build that I feel he might degrade sooner compared to other pitchers with the same age. 

Liberatore might have that same leap that Mackenzie Gore enjoyed this year as a pitcher with immense pitchability from the left side with a solid three-pitch mix in place. He's projectable so his velocity might improve while keeping the same stuff. His curveball is almost a throwback to the slow curveballs like Kershaw's in an era where knuckle curves and hard sliders reign supreme with the potential to be something special as well as his changeup. There's huge potential Liberatore will soar towards 1-1 conversations come next year.

Even though there's a healthy dose of pitchers to be considered, the hitters for next year's crop aren't too shabby either and should be given serious consideration especially for the prep class lead by Brice Turang. Imagine Mickey Moniak but will stay at shortstop for long-term. You just thought of what Brice Turang might bring to the table. He has that long track record of exemplary hitting and a college hitter-like approach at the plate from the left side with excellent speed and ability to field at the prime position. I'm a very big Moniak fan during last year's draft and I can see the strengths and flaws of Moniak in Turang. I'm worried at Turang's exit velocities coming out of his bat and I don't really seeing him hitting for power. That said, Turang gives the Giants a dynamic player that will supplant Brandon Crawford at short and will give them a true leadoff-type hitter in the lineup.

Other than Turang, there's also a shortstop that can be in play in the top 5 conversation if he improves his stock next spring and that's Nander de Sedas. He has potential to be a really good shortstop defensively and he can bring what Turang can't bring: the power potential at the plate. De Sedas has the power stroke on both sides of the plate and also has the ability to hit for average. The only caveat against him compared to Turang is that de Sedas might not have enough range to play shortstop long-term and might shift to the hot corner in the long run. Expect the "who's better between Turang and de Sedas" to be a staple debate come next year as the draft comes close. 

Giants really love the raw power and Nolan Gorman has that kind of power that the front office are thirsty for next year's draft. Gorman has a similar comp to Nolan Arenado as he's also a potential lockdown defender at the hot corner to go along with the raw power that he utilizes really well and always shows up in games especially in home run derbies where he always has the highest odds of winning and also his impressive home run in the PG All-American Classic. The Giants are not afraid to swing for the fences in terms of powers. Recently, they have been swing and misses on even year classes (Dylan Davis and Heath Quinn in 2014 and 2016) and connected on odd years (Chris Shaw in 2015 and while too early to call, Jacob and Heliot in 2017) so the Giants might be in some kind of bad juju in terms of swinging for an early-round power bat in 2018 but Gorman can erase all of it.

There's not a lot of hitters to get crazy in the college side but there's two worth the attention: Nick Madrigal and Jeremy Eierman. The two are almost contrast in styles but both are worthwhile prospects to consider. Madrigal will always have that height concerns surrounding him for the rest of his professional career but so far in college, he's beaten all the odds and has been in some ways a Brice Turang for the Beavers; a leadoff hitter that does his job extremely well against college pitchers while playing respectable defense at short. Madrigal will need to move at second base where he can be stellar there defensively. 

On the other hand, Eierman is a potential force in the middle of the lineup: a power bat as a result of strength in his big frame but is quick and nimble to play shortstop consistently in pro ball. The only issue for him to shrug off is the massive amount of strikeouts that he compiled last year. If he can cut down on those strikeouts next year, he'll be in serious discussion within the top 5 picks and won't be really surprised if it happens.


I bet there are plenty of guys that I forgot to mention that you people are a huge fan of and that's fine as the draft season is just less than a week old and the stock will be very fluid possibly as soon as December and should change but the prospects I discussed are the prospects that I think will be a big staple in next year's conversation for the number 2 pick and it serves as more of a preview of what's to come next year.

Let's enjoy watching the postseason and celebrate that the Giants will have a big shot on injecting a lot of talent to the farm next year!

4 comments:

  1. I'm actually wanting Hankins. I think he has Ace potential. And his pitching is low-effort which means he's far less likely than Singer to end up with Tommy John.

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    1. I want Hankins too. Such easy mechanics, smooth arm action, perfect pitcher's frame, blazing fastball with tons of movement but the things I saw this year: his overthrowing, too reliant on his fastball because his curveball has been varying from a meh to impressive and lack of changeup has been worrying me a bit about him.

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    2. FWIW, if we don't go Hankins, Rocker would be my 1A position. And by the time the draft is here, I might flip. They're really close in my 'could be future ACE' book.

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    3. I have a bad feeling for Rocker. I don't feel the hype like many do on him. Maybe he's too mature physically that he might break down sooner? I don't know. Command issues as well but let's see I hope he proves me wrong.

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