It's been a long while since I posted something in my blog mainly because of the academic stuff that I have been doing for the whole semester and hopefully to graduate in college this year so I hope you all wish me good luck on it. Also part of it is my fascination towards football and I am rooting for the Saints to win it all this season although I am personally a Packer fan. I will probably not going to do further scouting reports for the Giants prospects as plenty can still be applied to the same prospects from the previous years and I'll add on my own scouting report while discussing prospects. Without further ado, here's the prospect primer for 2018.
2017 In Retrospective
The 2017 season in the Giants organization has been a letdown in almost all facets, with the Major League club stumbling towards the 2nd pick of the 2018 draft and the minor league affiliates also experiencing horrible win-loss records with the exception of the AZL squad that were one game away from claiming the AZL Championship.
Due to it, the front office hired David Bell and he vastly remodelled the entire minor league personnel and has also added a new AZL team to cope up with the increasing amount of young prospects that the Giants have in the Arizona League which makes me very hopeful for the 2018 season.
The 2017 draft haul for the Giants has been relatively positive with the performances of top picks Heliot Ramos and Jacob Gonzalez as well as speedy outfielder Bryce Johnson but the pitching haul leaves something to be desired as Seth Corry showed mixed results in terms of command and plenty of small school pitchers taken in the top 10 needs more sample size to be evaluated fully.
Prospect performances apart from the 2017 draft class were pretty pale given the horrible win-loss records that takes something away from their performances that are sometimes inconsistent as well as injuries hurting some of the top prospects.
Hope for 2018?
There's definitely hope for the 2018 season given the positivity brought by the minor league shakeup, the 2017 draft haul, positive improvements on some of the 2016 draft prospects and especially the massive draft pool and very high draft spot for the Giants to take advantage in this year's draft. Check out my previous post about the 2018 draft prospects to be considered with the number 2 pick. And I can already assure you, I'll be diving more into the 2018 draft and give you all guys my takes on a lot of draft prospects (I'll see how many I can do given my potentially hectic final semester but I'm already watching and rewatching videos of plenty of the top draft prospects).
Top 30 Prospects
Note: Due to the Longoria trade, Christian Arroyo, Matt Krook and Stephen Woods were omitted in the list. Also, I would not call Austin Slater and Kyle Crick as prospects anymore as they received significant playing time in the Majors for to consider them as non-prospects but Crick would be in my Top 10 and Slater would be in my Top 15 if ever.
The Tiers are designed to have prospects that I think can deliver the same value and can be shuffled in any order but I ranked them based on my own opinion.
Top 30 In Summary
The system is overall below average compared to other clubs. The only top prospects that I consider as great prospects are from Heliot up top to Seth Corry at number 12. Those are the prospects that peeks the most interest in me due to their tools and their ceiling with Heliot as a cut above the rest. After the top 12 however the prospects around are more of the guys with good track record and a relatively safe floor but not the same ceiling that the top prospects 12 project to be (which is mostly relievers) and the rest can be considered as busts or afterthoughts although there are prospects that are either too young to be project to my Top 30 and definitely needs more experience or is yet to break out.
Top 30 In Summary
The system is overall below average compared to other clubs. The only top prospects that I consider as great prospects are from Heliot up top to Seth Corry at number 12. Those are the prospects that peeks the most interest in me due to their tools and their ceiling with Heliot as a cut above the rest. After the top 12 however the prospects around are more of the guys with good track record and a relatively safe floor but not the same ceiling that the top prospects 12 project to be (which is mostly relievers) and the rest can be considered as busts or afterthoughts although there are prospects that are either too young to be project to my Top 30 and definitely needs more experience or is yet to break out.
Tier 1
1. Heliot Ramos OF
Hit 50 | Power 55 | Speed 70 | Arm 60 | Glove 55
There's clearly a single top prospect in the organization right now and that's Ramos, the steal of the 2017 draft. His raw tools are already pluses: power, speed, and arm and I might be really conservative in terms of the power and the speed because he has light-tower power and a real, effortless burner and has a potential to stick in center field in the long run. The only caveat against him is that whether his ability to hit with wooden bats will continue to be successful in a full-season setting while continuing to improve his patience, pitch selection and approach as he gets older. Is there anything else left to say towards him? He's the most exciting prospect that I have ever seen don a Giants uniform since Bumgarner. Expect him to be around in Augusta this year as an 18-year old. Keep that in mind. 18 years old.
The problem with the system as everyone is saying is that past Ramos, there's not a whole lot of excitement in the system mainly because of the lack of ceiling that most of the prospects possess that can be really exciting about. As time and time again, we can always blame that towards the draft slot the Giants are at in the draft due to their success at the Major League level and their lack of aggressiveness towards the international amateur market. But some problems that I see also is that the approach is not towards not taking risks on some prospects perceived as high-ceiling prospects so they tend to miss out on prospects who are already on the higher end of plenty of Top 100 lists like the Walker Buehlers and the Taylor Trammells and the Isan Diazs. And that hurts the team to acquire superstar players in trade talks as you see on the failed Stanton and Hamilton trades.
Tier 2
2. Tyler Beede RHP
FB 55 | CUT 50+ | CH 60 | CB 50 | CMD 50
In three and a half years that he's been in the organization, the name of Beede has consistently been in the top 5 of the Giants prospect lists and he might be suffering some kind of prospect fatigue or frustration coming from many fans that expects him to be already a part of the rotation last year. Well, you could say that he's really close until he hit a wall due to the groin injury that resulted to the end of his 2017 regular season.
In 2017, we got to see the best and worst of Beede. At his best, he'll have three quality pitches with pinpoint precision. At worst, his stuff flattens out and he often gets burned more often than not. There are times that he'll have pinpoint precision for the first three or four innings but then, the wheels will fall off. He used his curveball more last year but still had trouble in terms of the out-pitch potential of it as he still has his changeup as his main out pitch. He has gone back towards the over the top windup in the Arizona Fall League probably to get more tempo and rhythm.
He's a very intelligent pitcher and a great person as well to see him battle his inconsistencies and I think he's still capable of joining the rotation but honestly, I expected more from Beede in 2017 after a great second half of 2016. He'll surely be in the hunt for the back-end rotation spots in Spring Training.
3. Chris Shaw OF/1B
Hit 45 | Power 60+ | Speed 20 | Arm 60 | Glove 40+
The issues that I said towards Shaw last year still applies this year. Offensively, what you see is what you get from Shaw. You'll get a power hitter with the chance of 30 homers a season where he can draw walks and has more patience than a feast or famine, homer-centric guy that is typical in this age and his 2017 season stats proves it.
Defensively, jury's still out whether he can fit in the left field of AT&T Park as at least a non-liability of a defender there. He's made some strides but the natural lack of range and speed will limit his ability even though he will improve his technique and reads. But I think there's only one thing to do and that's actually to let actually let him play in left field at AT&T in 2018 and let's really see how he'll do there whether he's the answer to our prayers there or he's just another Jarrett Parker or a Mac Williamson there.
4. Steven Duggar OF
Hit 50+ | Power 40 | Speed 65 | Arm 60 | Glove 60
Duggar has been hampered by injuries early on this year and has put up a so-so regular season, probably still recovering from the injuries and the rust that he tried to shrug off but has put up an interesting Arizona Fall League performance where several pegged him as a future center fielder for the Giants. Duggar still fits that mold of a center fielder with tremendous range, plus or better arm for the position and the instincts to make spectacular plays and offensively, he got the tools to become a solid leadoff hitter with the speed and patience fit for the position. In the Fall League, he has shown a better knack for stealing bases compared to previous years and has shown a solid eye at the plate and his ability to hit.
There's still a prevailing argument whether who's the better outfielder between Duggar and Bryan Reynolds. I have Duggar ahead of Reynolds because I feel that Duggar he's more athletic, with better range in the outfield and a better hit tool and the fact that he's just a step closer towards the big leagues and helping out the outfield situation better. The only caveat that's in favor with Reynolds is that he has better power projection than Duggar and that power can carry him a lot further than Duggar in terms of value in the future.
5. Bryan Reynolds OF
Hit 50+ | Power 50 | Speed 50+ | Arm 40 | Glove 50
Tools-wise, you might just say Reynolds has the same tools as Austin Slater and that idea sounds scary or alarming but what Reynolds has going for him is that he keeps on performing and performing and puts up lines that makes you believe in him: a quintessential Giant prospect.
Reynolds has almost a thousand batting stance in his pocket especially in the left handed batter's box and he made it work this year and that's a testament to his innate hitting ability with some power. Plenty of his doubles and triples have been near homers where he is just a foot or less off the outfield wall to be a homer. With that said, he still has some ceiling to be tapped offensively. Defensively, he's probably the best fit right now at left field for the Giants as he has the ability to cover left field with his below-average arm strength as a suit there. His performance in the pitcher-neutral San Jose ballpark should give us a glimpse of what can we expect from him in a tougher environment in the Eastern League.
6. Garrett Williams LHP
FB 60 | CB 60+ | CH 40+ | CMD 50
My main pick to be the one who will break out last year, Williams really has just one thing that limits him from reaching his ceiling and that's his atrocious command in college. In my opinion, the secret to his success this year has been the miniscule fix in his delivery where he smoothened out his drive (compare this clip from his college days to this clip in his San Jose stint and you'll see that he eliminated a Kershaw-like stop and go after his leg kick and before driving his front leg forward from his college days towards a leg kick-leg drive approach in the SJ video). The change is so miniscule that you will not see it until repeated comparison of the two videos.
That resulted to his low-90s fastball to become a more respectable pitch and has the ability to spot it on both sides of the plate at times from a laughable one and turning his hard curveball from a layoff pitch or a pitch to sit on towards a true out pitch that he can also spot at will. He can still hit up to 95 MPH in his heater but I have seen that he's relying more towards a sinker-cutter approach with the latter pitch as the better and more often used. He also has a rarely thrown changeup that's half-decent and should be the next thing to improve on as he looks forward to pitch for Richmond. With his command now making his premier stuff a promising one, he has plenty of ceiling and let's see if his command is legitimate in 2018 or just a one year wonder.
7. Andrew Suarez LHP
FB 50+ | SL 55 | CH 55 | CB 45 | CMD 55
Suarez has continued to have a reputation as a reliable starting pitching prospect for the Giants after the 2017 season. While there's not much going towards him that makes him a very exciting prospect, he has continued to show solid pitching performances thanks to his tremendous feel for four pitches with his secondary stuff being better than his fastball at the moment and the pitchability as a starter. He has continued to be injury-free and has reached the 150 IP mark last year which showed his durability after having an injury-plagued college career so that's another positive thing that's going for him. I like Suarez more than Blach and I think the Suarez and Beede has the chance to overthrew Blach and Stratton for the rotation spot.
Tier 3
8. Sandro Fabian OF
Hit 50+ | Power 45 | Speed 45 | Arm 55 | Glove 55
Scouting reports are the way of describing a player's profile and the first full season of Fabian perfectly describes him. He's a player with severe aggressiveness at the plate, often swinging early in the counts and constantly swinging in two strike counts especially early in the season that resulted to horrible batting averages and lack of walks but as his second half numbers would suggest, he has tremendous feel for the barrel and can consistently makes hard contact with reports from the Instructional League of 100+ MPH exit velocities according to Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs. He has a decent eye at the plate where he can get himself into three ball counts but he's so aggressive in the box that he will still attack bad balls instead of laying off and taking the free base.
He is a weird one in terms of a hit-first right fielder has he got solid at best raw power that he can tap on but he can always bank on the extra bases and his speed to deliver extra bases. I think he'll make it work nonetheless as he got the arm strength, the range and the instincts to become an at least solid defender at right. Fabian really needs to town down his ultra aggressive approach for his own good as guys with that kind of hitting approach tend to not go far in any minor league system. He should be an interesting follow this year as he enters his age 20 season.
9. Aramis Garcia C
Hit 45 | Power 50 | Speed 30 | Arm 50+ | Glove 50+
You might say I am a little bullish on Garcia in terms of the ranking because throughout this year, he's actually been an above average hitter in a pitching-friendly environment especially in Richmond with solid power numbers. But the thing with Aramis is that prospect fatigue can bite hard at times and I think he's a victim of that.
Originally drafted as an offense-first catcher, I think that as Aramis develops through the system, his defense kept on improving while his offense receded to a point that his defense might be considered as better than his offense where he can post plus pop times. He's still striking out at a high rate which will limit his offensive potential but I think that his combination of defense and offense are good enough to be pegged as Buster Posey's perennial backup and can have everyday potential behind the plate.
10. Jacob Gonzalez 3B
Hit 50+ | Power 55 | Speed 40 | Arm 50 | Glove 50
Along with Ramos, the Giants are really high on Gonzalez and he rewarded the brass and the fans with a spectacular AZL performance. What I liked about him is that he already has an advanced knowledge in terms of hitting a baseball, which probably most obvious when he's eliminated his leg kick in two strike counts and uses a heel lift and turn in order to make contact. He does the opposite field quite well but most of his power do come from his pull side to center field but his approach is more on making contact than selling for power. He got tremendous raw power to tap on and will probably be reaching it given his already promising hitting ability.
The main issue that surrounds him is where will he play defensively as he's too big and possibly too slow to play at a high level in the hot corner and his arm strength is only so-so for the position but he has shown the aptitude to make himself an asset at third base defensively based on his offseason work and I think that he will develop to be a solid defender there at best. In any case that he should move a position, the outfield or the other side of the diamond would be good spots for him. The Giants do aggressive promotions quite often these days so I expect him to be with Augusta together with Heliot.
11. Shaun Anderson RHP
FB 60 | CUT 55 | SL 55 | CB 50 | CH 45 | CMD 45+
I am basing this idea mostly on his one appearance against Inland Empire where Conner Penfold got a nice video on it while I watched it on MiLB.tv, but I think Shaun Anderson got a chance to become a starter. His vast array of pitches in his disposal highlighted by a fastball that can reach 94 MPH with a cutter and slider that are his main out pitches, his curveball that I think is better than other people grades it out as I see it as a solid pitch with future above average ceiling on it, and I am a little skeptical with his changeup as it doesn't look as enticing as his other pitches.
He can repeat his mechanics for multiple innings with enough strike-throwing ability and intense competitive mentality. There are times where he loses control of his stuff and will battle inconsistency but I do believe he can start in the Majors, and that's an exciting idea given the fact that he's mainly considered as a middle reliever. That's probably what he'll end up in the big league level with a chance of spot starting but if he will throw more consistent outings of 6+ innings this year, he can certainly crack the top 10 come midseason.
12. Seth Corry LHP
FB 60 | CB 60 | CH 50+ | CMD 40
The third rounder who the Giants paid overslot has been inconsistent in the Arizona League, with bouts of wildness but also flashes the potential that made him a third round pick. He clearly has three pitches, both with excellent movement at their best especially his curveball that is plus or better when he's in sync. However, he struggles to be in sync with his body and his mechanics that results to him struggling to find his balance throughout his delivery that will result to inconsistent release points. One thing he can do to have more balance is to add a little crossfire in his drive because he's separating his hips too much and causing unnecessary torque.
I will give Corry two full seasons and evaluate back on whether he's improved his command and is still on track to reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter with Matt Moore comps being thrown at him. If not, he's very similar to Matt Krook as a guy who has so much nastiness in his stuff but has little idea where it's going. I think Corry has better athleticism than Krook given Corry's athletic background and has been working hard this offseason in his strength and overalls and that has brought some delight in me in terms of reaching his ceiling. The claims of him throwing 95-97 MPH will be doubtful until he actually throw a pitch in a regular season start so let's watch out for that.
Tier 4
13. Ryan Howard SS/2B/3B
Hit 50 | Power 40 | Speed 50 | Arm 55 | Glove 50+
14. C.J. Hinojosa 2B/SS
Hit 50+ | Power 40 | Speed 35 | Arm 55 | Glove 50
Howard didn't do anything wrong at San Jose this season as he's proven to be a solid infield prospect while C.J. He's quite comparable to fellow infield prospect C.J. Hinojosa with the exception of their height and their speed where Howard flashes more raw speed but their profiles are the same. Both are contact hitters that are solid if not spectacular in terms of getting the barrel to the ball and making consistent contact with gap to gap power. Defensively, both have nice arm strength and has solid fundamentals and internal body clocks to make routine and some spectacular plays in the infield but both are bit by their fringy to below average range due to their raw speed so both has to move somewhere outside short for a better defensive fit.
C.J. has shown a better patience in the box compared to Howard but looks to be having a role quite similar to Kelby Tomlinson in he future as possible Swiss knife-type of players that can slotted anywhere in the infield and won't hurt you in both offense and defense.
15. Reyes Moronta RHP
FB 75 | SL 60 | CMD 50
Moronta got a sip of coffee at the Major Leagues after pitching impressively in Sacramento in August and early September and I can already see that he can have a nice run as a good reliever for the Giants. His mid to high-90s fastball jumps easily at the batters with minute cutting action on it but mostly is as straight as a dart and it's rare to see him actually have straight downwards movement on it when thrown below the zone. His slider is snappy with hard, late sweeping break when thrown correctly, almost frisbee-esque at times, but there are times where he loses the grip and easily hangs it with a harder, mid-80s variety and a slower, low-80s pitch. I haven't seen the changeup from him but he doesn't exactly need it as a two-pitch pitcher. The bulk of his body as well as his arm action bodes him well in terms of deception but not in terms of future health issues that might be coming. He can spot both his fastball and slider at times but tends to lose the feel for the pitches at times.
Moronta has already shown he's already ready for the big leagues and should have a firm grasp of at least a bullpen spot in the regular season.
16. Miguel Gomez IF
Hit 55 | Power 45 | Speed 35 | Arm 50+ | Glove 40+
Gomez has proven last year yet again that he's a natural hitter of the baseball where he managed to reach the Majors for a short run and is close to being stripped of the list. He's got the feel for the barrel and makes consistent contact with the ball on both sides of the batter's box. The main issue on him is where he should play. I think that having no defined position will actually help Gomez play in the field as even though he's a slight liability defensively, his ability to hit should allow him to play somewhere in the field given that he stays in SF.
With Bochy saying that he's got a little Pablo Sandoval in him, he doesn't joke around but I think though that trading him to the American League will suit him better as a designated hitter.
17. Garrett Cave RHP
FB 60 | CUT 50 | CB 60 | CH 40 | CMD 40
The first college player taken in last year's draft, Cave was slotted immediately to the bullpen in Salem-Keizer where it started fine for him but the wheels fell off in terms of command at the end of the season. A volatile prospect ever since he's a HS pitching prospect, Cave's main issue still finding consistent command as he's still having trouble repeating his arm slot even though his current mechanics are now much more appealing to watch. He got the ingredients to become a potent reliever with his fastball that will probably sit mid-90s in the pen with some running life on it and couple that with his power curveball that is above average to plus when thrown right. His cutter is pretty inconsistent where I have seen impressive to half-decent ones and his changeup definitely needs a makeover.
But I do feel the one thing that will make him a starter or a reliever is his command. Cave's mechanics is simple and loose enough for him to throw adequate strikes and the arm action's clean enough to repeat it consistently so I think it all comes down to his athleticism whether he can repeat his mechanics enough to be a starting option. I think he's got a chance to start if he can figure out how to pitch even though it's slim to almost none. If not, his fastball and curveball will surely fit nicely in a high-leverage relief role. It's whether the Giants will be aggressive on him or not. In my opinion, I would rather place him in San Jose and give him 4-5 inning outings and see if he can make it there or he's better as a 2-inning fireman.
18. Heath Quinn OF
Hit 45 | Power 55 | Speed 45 | Arm 55 | Glove 50
After sustaining an injury that held his start of the season to May, Quinn seemed to be bothered by the issue and hasn't been the type of hitter that fans expected from him last year: a hitter with considerable raw power and consistently makes loud contact with the ball. I will give Quinn the benefit of the doubt in terms of his ability to hit and a healthy 2018 should give us a better look on whether we have seen the best of Quinn or he's just getting started.
19. Tyler Cyr RHP
FB 60 | CB 60 | SPL 55 | CMD 50
Cyr has put up a very strong season statistically in 2017 regular season that brought him to the Arizona Fall Legue and also showed strong impressions in the field. A 10th rounder in 2015 draft, Cyr has a tall and fall delivery with a short leg drive and plenty of crossfire that he repeats well in one to two-inning stints. His arm action isn't pretty but he finds his release point and can throw quality strikes although there are some stints of wildness but he stays around the plate for the most part.
He got three pitches in his repertoire, all with very good potential. His four-seam fastball can reach 95 to 96 MPH and while it's relatively straight, the downhill plane he creates in his delivery helps in his favor. He also has a two-seam variety in the low-90s with good sink but has doesn't locate the pitch as well as his four-seam. His power low-80s curveball flashes plus with hard 11-5 break. I only have seen a couple of low-80 splitters that he's thrown but it flashed plenty of promise with a late and hard break that he throw primarily to lefties as sort of changeup.
With three potential plus pitches in his pocket, Cyr is still learning to throw quality strikes consistently though he might only have average at best command but the nastiness that helped him have more than a strikeout an inning will serves him well in the Majors.
20. Bryce Johnson OF
Hit 50 | Power 30 | Speed 60 | Arm 50 | Glove 60
The sixth-rounder out of Sam Houston State is a prototypical leadoff hitter: make contact, get hits, draw walks, steal bases, get hit by pitches. He's a switch hitter but is obviously a better hitter on his natural right side where he's shown the ability to drive the ball more whereas he does only puts the ball in play on his left side with almost nonexistent ability to hit for power there. He doesn't really need it anyway as he got plus or better speed and has the ability to steal bases at a very good rate, something that the Giants sorely lacks: a smart base stealer.
Looks like he's a nice value pick by the Giants in the sixth round and has a little bit of Steven Duggar in him as a potential fourth outfielder or a nice callup option and can be an everyday guy once he hits consistently on both sides of the plate as a potential tablesetter.
21. Melvin Adon RHP
FB 75 | SL 55 | CH 40 | CMD 40
After his first full season, I am now confident to say the Adon fits much better in a bullpen role as his starting gig in Augusta might just be getting him the innings that he need for the reps since he's started his pro career older than others. Adon can throw strikes in short bursts and has toned down his mechanics to a point where he can repeat it in multiple innings. His fastball can hold steady at high-90s with immense running action and his average arm speed does make his heater jump on hitters. His slider is a consistent solid to above average pitch with fastball look and a sweeping break. The two-pitch combo will be nightmarish especially against righties with his long arms and a slinging style of throwing the baseball. However, the command on the slider is inconsistent. His changeup showed flashes of becoming an average pitch but is always fringy especially in terms of selling the pitch and its command.
I placed him just ahead of Ruotolo even though I like Ruotolo's command better, I like Adon's pure stuff more and should fast track the minors if he produces a very good 2018.
22. Patrick Ruotolo RHP
FB 55 | CB 60 | CMD 50
The Augusta closer for the 2017 season showed the polish and the stuff to become a viable relief prospect. While he lacks in size, he's got the deception in his mechanics where he reaches all the way back and then throwing the ball in an over the top release point, something that he can repeat quite well throughout the season. Combine that with his good low-90s fastball and a hammer curveball will give you a solid reliever to place your bet on.
Expect him to pitch in the San Jose bullpen as possibly the closer yet again and he has proven he can pitch in tight spots and not just in bases clear situations. Coming from the same college of Yankee reliever David Robertson, Ruotolo should gain more attention if he put up an impressive first half this year.
23. Julian Fernandez RHP
FB 80 | SL 50 | CH 40 | CMD 40
Unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft by the Rockies last year, the Giants took a shot on someone who throws extremely hard in Julian Fernandez. Fernandez reminds me very well of Ray Black, without the injury plague: someone who throws consistent 99-101 MPH fastballs with good movement on it and a decent slider and bad changeup that gets swings and misses based on the velocity alone but doesn't know where it's going. The good thing with Fernandez though is that at times last year, he's shown the ability to spot his fastball at times without sacrificing velocity. Fernandez does have an athletic and lanky frame with a big arm swing that I would like to compact in order to gain more control of his mechanics.
The Giants take a shot at an extreme arm with the hopes that they can develop him into a potential weapon and he's still relatively young at 22 years old so there's plenty of thread in those tires to make it work.
Tier 5
24. Sam Wolff RHP
FB 65 | SL 55 | CB 45 | CH 40 | CMD 45
The centerpiece of the salary-shedding Matt Moore trade to the Rangers, the injury-plagued Wolff has a pretty good shot in the bullpen someday. He should sit mid-90s in his fastball with good movement in it and compliments it with a nice two-plane slider with good bite that can be a plus for him. His curveball is more of a floater and is more of a compliment than a reliable weapon and his changeup can be shelved because it's a poor pitch. The two issues with him are his injury history and his command that can be explained by his stiff delivery though he can deliver quality strikes at times.
There's limited video for Wolff to fully see what he can become and he's already hovering in his age 27 season so his Major League impact could be limited but he got the potential to be a solid reliever if ever he gets healthy.
25. Joan Gregorio RHP
FB 65 | SL 50 | CH 40+ | CMD 45
I am down on Gregorio for years unlike the people who rank him in the top 10 at times because I don't really find him an interesting follow due to a true reliever profile that is still given all the chance to start. His numbers last year are perplexing as his strikeouts are way down and his walks are way up but his ERA is around 3 and compare that to his 2015 where his ERA is horrible but his K/9 and BB/9 are very good but he ended up getting hit by the doping suspension that ended his 2017 season early.
He should fit best in a reliever profile in the Giants but he's already in his age-27 season so he needs to perform so that he's not stuck in the AAAA level.
26. D.J. Snelten LHP
FB 50+ | SL 50 | CH 50 | CMD 50
Snelten is the best true lefty relief option that the Giants have right now and in the team that lacks lefty relief pitching, he's got a potential to make an impact. Snelten has some Alex Wood elements in his mechanics and uses his height to generate downhill plane in his sinker-slider repertoire. The stuff might not be wipeout unlike the Giants relievers that the organization currently have but he does have the control and command for his sinker that made him a groundball weapon. He should be in the midst of joining the big league club in 2018.
27. Kelvin Beltre 2B/3B/SS
Hit 40 | Power 45 | Speed 50 | Arm 60 | Glove 50
Beltre is still a raw product offensively as his 2017 stats might suggest. Looking at videos, he doesn't look like to be more than a fringey to an average at best right-handed hitter with some pop and can produce good contact with the ball. His stance is what I am worried the most where he doesn't really generate the pop that his above average raw power would suggest otherwise. He projects to be a third baseman with a strong arm and just average quickness that would make him a liability to play at short. He's made some routine plays in second base and can also fit there.
I don't really feel a lot of positives with regards to Beltre ever since I first started taking a look at him a couple of years ago and that thing still holds as he looks to be a defense-first position player.
28. Camilo Doval RHP
FB 65 | SL 50+ | CMD 35
Doval's a young relief prospect that we should get more notice. His profile is quite similar to Melvin Adon but Doval is much skinnier while having the same stuff and is four years younger. Doval has a slinging delivery capable of delivering fastball up to 97 MPH where he currently sits low to mid-90s and will probably hover at mid-90s in the maturation of his frame. With excellent spin rates in his fastball according to Eric Longenhagen, he can throw it with running action and with cutting action, the latter one I can see as a potential wipeout one. His slider flashes plus with great downwards action with some sweeping movement as well.
Doval is still very raw considering his age and his command is still in its earliest stages but the potential based on his stuff makes him a promising prospect. It's just unfortunate that he's a relief-only profile based on his mechanics and his body frame and he reminds me of Randall Delgado in terms of the mechanics and stuff.
29. Alexander Canario OF
Hit 35 | Power 45 | Speed 60 | Arm 50 | Glove 50
Signed for just $60,000 in the 2016 J2 cycle, Canario is the youngest prospect in the DSL squad last year if I'm not mistaken and he's currently generating the greatest buzz in the Giants prospect hounds.
Out of the J2 pool that netted Enoc Watts and Gordi Santos, Canario looks like an absolute steal based on his stat line in the DSL and the eyewitness reports. Videos of him are very limited so far in his career but it already offered what's in store. You can see his projectable physique, his loose swing with impressive bat speed and loft, and he got impressive strength for his body frame to generate home runs. Jury's out on his defensive potential and his arm strength as well as his raw speed so the grades that I gave him in speed, arm and glove are the same as far as I looked in 2016.
Canario's just starting in his career and he's still miles away in terms of his development but his DSL stint has showed enough promise to be excited on what he can become. Not bad for a $60,000 signing.
30. Malique Ziegler OF
Hit 40 | Power 40 | Speed 75 | Arm 50 | Glove 50+
Ziegler is an interesting case as he's off to a scorching start in Salem-Keizer, he cooled off towards the end of the season but the potential in terms of a bat as a potential center field prospect. He got crazy speed, the best in the organization, and that gives him tremendous coverage at center where his arm is sufficient enough to play there. His base stealing technique could use more work but the potential is there as long as he hits enough. He got surprisingly good pop for his frame and he can generate hard contact but he struggles with pitch recognition often but he got some potential to make it work.
Dissecting A Bit the Case of Jalen Miller
Over the past three years, Jalen Miller has teased us with his potential due to his superb athletic ability and his impressive spring performances where people would get hyped up and thinking "this is the year Jalen Miller's gonna be the star!" but he'll put up a disappointing season offensively and that has been happening for 2 and a half years now.
Given that the Giants have been particularly aggressive on him in terms of promotion where the brass gave him a promotion to San Jose last year even though he struggled throughout his stay in Augusta, hitting against better pitching. But the Cali League should be a hitter's league and he should perform outside San Jose right? Looking at his home & away splits, the answer is his numbers did improve away from San Jose but were still below average by hitting standards. Looking at his season stats, you might notice that he's put up almost very similar season stat lines in every level he's promoted. What if the Giants try not to promote him and let him play in San Jose in 2018? Will he be finally going to hit well the second time he's been in a league or will he continue to stall offensively? Are the Giants going to promote him to Richmond this season and produce the same lines again and we'll go back to talk about his enigmatic development again?
Probably, even though he's just entered his age-21 season this year, the Jalen Miller with the star potential might be in the rearview mirror but still, there's hope for Miller to become a productive everyday regular once he figure out how to hit consistently. Again, he's still 21 years old, around the same age of a typical college prospect, and he's already playing in High-A ball. That's something to commend. However, the bust labels are already coming out and he really need to put up a turnaround season with his bat to make him a relevant prospect to follow.
Other Interesting Prospects in no particular order
Jalen Miller- read above.
Dan Slania- Slania earned his MLB debut last season and has shown the potential to be a nice relief option with chance to be a spot starter. His fastball-slider-change repertoire are good enough pitches for Slania to succeed in the Major League level and his feel for pitching and his mechanics is actually impressive for his body size with a short arm action and has crossfire elements.
Conner Menez- Menez performed very well in San Jose as a season-long starter, with the lefty's ERA consistently hovering the 3 mark until August where I think fatigue can be the reason because of the dog days of summer. I think his stuff can play in the Majors with a nice low-90s fastball-slider combo with feel also for his changeup and curveball. He might need to improve on his stamina for his stuff to last longer and be a Ty Blach or he can also transition to the bullpen in order to gain more ticks in his fastball.
Jason Bahr- The 5th round pick last year is pretty interesting because he's quite similar to Garrett Cave. Bahr's fastball reaches only up to 93 to 94 MPH and sits in the low-90s but the pitch has plenty of running action and it pretty tough to square up and he got some feel to it. His curveball flashes solid and the projection to his changeup looks nice given his repeatable mechanics and loose arm action. I hope he should continue to start in his first full season.
Joey Marciano- The 36th rounder in last year's draft (yes, you read it correctly, 36th rounder) has been quite good at the Instructional League, flashing a decent three pitch mix in a video from Jason Perrini with a above-average looking curveball with good bite, a fastball that's in the high-80s and a changeup that looks good but he slows his body down so it kind of take away the deception a bit. He's 23 now though but he's got a shot to be something to look forward for down the road.
Diego Rincones- Unless the pitch is going to hit him, Rincones would take a swing at it as long as the pitch is hittable in his eyes. Hell, he might even swing to a pitch that would hit him! With that said, Rincones has strong wrists to generate very good bat speed, slight bat wrap but often gets the timing of the pitch and places the good part of the barrel, and has good power projection. The problem is guys with the type of aggressiveness that he has often doesn't make it too far. Rincones has the looks of a hitter with a special feel for the barrel so let's see his progress this year.
Aaron Bond- One of the top performers of the Arizona League squad, Bond flashes potential to become a relevant prospect because he got a good potential with his bat as it got good left to it and he's strong and has some feel to hit. He's got a strong arm as well which suggests that he can be a capable right fielder when seasoned well. A must-follow for 2018.
Tyler Rogers- While 99% of the prospects can either throw hard or has a nasty breaking pitch, Rogers is effective by slinging it down under. Even with finesse stuff, he makes use of his long limbs to baffle righties and have them pound the earth with his low to mid-80s sinker and a decent slider. Rogers should be a fascinating look in terms of being a bullpen option in the Majors.
Ricardo Genoves- The best young catching prospect that the Giants organization possesses, Genoves flashes good defensive potential behind the dish with a strong arm, good leadership skills, athletic actions at the crouch and pretty soft glove to frame pitches. Offensively however needs plenty of work as his athleticism doesn't show at all with below average bat speed and raw pitch recognition abilities.
Gio Brusa- Looks like what you see is what you will get from Brusa: a switch hitting corner outfielder with good pop but has contact issues.
Gregory Santos- Part of the Eduardo Nuñez deal along with Shaun Anderson, Santos looks to be an interesting low level pitching prospect with reports of having a 92-95 MPH fastball and a slider that has the potential to be a plus pitch and a non-zero chance to start according to Eric Longenhagen.
Sam Coonrod- Struggled with command throughout the 2017 season, his stuff receded and his season ultimately ended with a Tommy John surgery, Coonrod's status as a prospect has never been this low and might never recover as he might just be an organizational player post-Tommy John.
Jordan Johnson- He fell flat and out of prospect considerations due to his poor performance and lack of improvements in terms of his control and command particularly his mechanics. He will likely going to be an organizational filler moving forward with still belief that he can still have some relevance because his changeup is the second best changeup in the farm system behind Beede.
Ronnie Jebavy- Still the best defensive player that the Giants have in the system right now, Jebavy will struggle to find a role in the upper minors if he doesn't improve his hit tool and the chances are getting that he'll improve are slimmer every minute.
Matt Gage- The PCL has been unforgiving for Gage as he struggled to find a consistent ground in the toughest hitting environment around but his pitch to contact approach might be better in the Majors as a lefty middle relief option.
Rodolfo Martinez- Tough to give up on a pitching prospect that once reached 102 MPH in his fastball and seemed to be on the fast track to the Majors until he hit the AA wall and suffered a dead arm state. He does look to be slowly rounding up to be the hardthrower that he once was but the command is still going to improve as his fastball is now more in the mid-90s and has yet to commit on a second pitch with his changeup looking to be a better out pitch than his slider in my opinion.
Ismael Munguia- A little man with a big swing, Munguia showed good bat speed as well as a good approach in the box. He's still very young and is still raw in terms of quality pitching so he has to improve in his offensive ability because his other tools are below average at best with the exception of his plus speed.
Cory Taylor- Command of his sinker is highly pivotal in Taylor's success in 2016 but unfortunately, he struggled in that department in 2017 as he's struggled to pitch in the rotation with just one quality pitch.
Sandro Cabrera- Cabrera moved to the bullpen after being downright horrible in his early starts and while the stat lines still shows plenty of rawness in his development, there's still hope as a relief option with his fastball and curveball but there's still a very high chance he'll be a bust.
Conner Nurse- A 34th rounder last year (how did the Giants signed 2 30+ rounders with good potential?), Nurse hasn't pitched at all in the AZL team last year but surely he's pitching in the back fields and there's promise to him as he's a tall and projectable pitcher with three pitches and he's paid for 6th round money (according to his reddit AMA before).
Dusten Knight- Knight was magical early last year in San Jose and was promoted very aggressively to Sacramento after a couple of months but has struggled with his command. There's no denying that his curveball is a very good pitch but his otherwise average fastball velocity will likely have him struggle to find a career in the big leagues unless he rediscover the type of command of his pitches that he showed in San Jose.
Gustavo Cabrera- Gustavo played very well actually in Salem-Keizer with the flashes of his raw power showing up in games and generates loud contact but there's still obvious rawness in his approach but he's slowly improving and that's a good sign considering he's almost done in his pro career a few years ago.
Jacob Heyward- Jason's younger brother played pretty well in Augusta last season but with the plethora of outfield prospects that the Giants currently has, the problem for Jacob moving forward would be playing time.
John Russell- see below.
My Pick For The Breakout Prospect This 2018
For the past couple of years, I picked the correct prospect that will break out in the 2016 and 2017 seasons in Steven Duggar and Garrett Williams and for quite obvious reasons actually. In the case of Duggar, he's put up impressive offensive numbers in his senior year, in the Cape Cod League and in his stint in Salem-Keizer even though he's got an ugly, broken swing so fixing it should make him a very good prospect considering his athleticism and tools. In the case of Williams, I'm puzzled how he's played barely in college even though he's got very good stuff and has a relatively simple and repeatable mechanics and polishing it should make him improve. Well, you know how what happened for the two.
This year however, picking up the breakout prospect this year is hard. There's a big chance that this segment can be renamed as "Which 2017 Draft Prospect will break out in 2018?" because it's very easy to do that as with the cases of Duggar and Williams but outside of the top 5 picks, there's not much excitement going on outside of Bond, Bahr and Nurse that has Top 10 potential. That said, I won't pick someone like a Heliot because he's already the top prospect and people pretty much expect that from him.
This year, my pick for the breakout prospect this year is Sandro Fabian. He's already in the top 10 I know but I feel like he can do much more. He's proven he got the ability to hit the ball with authority for quite a good amount especially at the second half of last year so he's already a special hitter with a chance to be above average defensively in right field. If he realized last year that he needs to stay patient and be willing to take the free base via base on balls, he'll be easily a top 5 prospect. That ability though isn't really easy to project to change because it's more mental than mechanical so I'm betting Fabian should get going. Let's see if I get this right in this one.
I would make a case for Alex Canario because he's got exciting tools and has a ceiling to be a Top 3 prospect in the organization but he's still very young and has so much to do before reaching his ceiling. Early reviews though are quite similar to Victor Robles so let's see.
Which 2017 Draft Prospect will break out in 2018?
Well, if you are really looking forward in which 2017 draft prospect would break out in 2018, you have to look no further than John Russell, the 16th round pick. Russell is tall and really wiry with a pedestrian fastball but he's got a pair of breaking balls that grades out as above-average or better in his slider and curveball, both hard-breaking pitches, and it showed in his 14.7 K/9 in his cup of coffee in Salem-Keizer. He can throw both his slider and curveball for strikes and also can make hitters chase it when thrown out the zone with both coming on the same tunnel as his fastball. He often tends to rely on his breaking balls too much due to his fastball and that could eventually lose effectiveness especially in the high minors. His mechanics has a slight stab in it and doesn't have the smoothest arm action in the world but he got some feel to repeat his arm action and get on top of his breaking balls.
If Russell manages to add bulk in his 6'3", 170-pound frame and add more ticks in his fastball for it to be a respectable pitch, he should break out. Now, this is just what ifs from now on but if he ever add up in his frame, I would give him a shot in the rotation because his mechanics looks to be repeatable enough for his breaking ball but fastball command could be a potential issue. If he works on that, he should have non-zero chance of starting.
UConn has produced plenty of good relief prospects and the Giants grabbed two in a row in Ruotolo and Russell and the former has already done a good job in his first full season. Let's see if Russell can perform the same or better than Ruotolo.
Best Tools
Hitters:
Hit- Miguel Gomez
Power- Chris Shaw
Speed- Malique Ziegler
Arm- Johneshwy Fargas
Glove- Ronnie Jebavy/Steven Duggar
Athleticism- Heliot Ramos*
*Might be surprised that Ramos isn't the best in one category except for athleticism. Well, Ramos got the best compilation of those five tools and the combination of those tools and athleticism is what makes him special.
Pitchers:
Fastball- Julian Fernandez
Curveball- Garrett Williams
Slider- Andrew Suarez
Changeup- Tyler Beede
Command- Andrew Suarez
Athleticism- Seth Corry
In any case I miss prospects that you otherwise find to be interesting, you can hit me up in Twitter or leave a comment in the comments section below. Enjoy!
FB 50+ | SL 55 | CH 55 | CB 45 | CMD 55
Suarez has continued to have a reputation as a reliable starting pitching prospect for the Giants after the 2017 season. While there's not much going towards him that makes him a very exciting prospect, he has continued to show solid pitching performances thanks to his tremendous feel for four pitches with his secondary stuff being better than his fastball at the moment and the pitchability as a starter. He has continued to be injury-free and has reached the 150 IP mark last year which showed his durability after having an injury-plagued college career so that's another positive thing that's going for him. I like Suarez more than Blach and I think the Suarez and Beede has the chance to overthrew Blach and Stratton for the rotation spot.
Tier 3
8. Sandro Fabian OF
Hit 50+ | Power 45 | Speed 45 | Arm 55 | Glove 55
Scouting reports are the way of describing a player's profile and the first full season of Fabian perfectly describes him. He's a player with severe aggressiveness at the plate, often swinging early in the counts and constantly swinging in two strike counts especially early in the season that resulted to horrible batting averages and lack of walks but as his second half numbers would suggest, he has tremendous feel for the barrel and can consistently makes hard contact with reports from the Instructional League of 100+ MPH exit velocities according to Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs. He has a decent eye at the plate where he can get himself into three ball counts but he's so aggressive in the box that he will still attack bad balls instead of laying off and taking the free base.
He is a weird one in terms of a hit-first right fielder has he got solid at best raw power that he can tap on but he can always bank on the extra bases and his speed to deliver extra bases. I think he'll make it work nonetheless as he got the arm strength, the range and the instincts to become an at least solid defender at right. Fabian really needs to town down his ultra aggressive approach for his own good as guys with that kind of hitting approach tend to not go far in any minor league system. He should be an interesting follow this year as he enters his age 20 season.
9. Aramis Garcia C
Hit 45 | Power 50 | Speed 30 | Arm 50+ | Glove 50+
You might say I am a little bullish on Garcia in terms of the ranking because throughout this year, he's actually been an above average hitter in a pitching-friendly environment especially in Richmond with solid power numbers. But the thing with Aramis is that prospect fatigue can bite hard at times and I think he's a victim of that.
Originally drafted as an offense-first catcher, I think that as Aramis develops through the system, his defense kept on improving while his offense receded to a point that his defense might be considered as better than his offense where he can post plus pop times. He's still striking out at a high rate which will limit his offensive potential but I think that his combination of defense and offense are good enough to be pegged as Buster Posey's perennial backup and can have everyday potential behind the plate.
10. Jacob Gonzalez 3B
Hit 50+ | Power 55 | Speed 40 | Arm 50 | Glove 50
Along with Ramos, the Giants are really high on Gonzalez and he rewarded the brass and the fans with a spectacular AZL performance. What I liked about him is that he already has an advanced knowledge in terms of hitting a baseball, which probably most obvious when he's eliminated his leg kick in two strike counts and uses a heel lift and turn in order to make contact. He does the opposite field quite well but most of his power do come from his pull side to center field but his approach is more on making contact than selling for power. He got tremendous raw power to tap on and will probably be reaching it given his already promising hitting ability.
The main issue that surrounds him is where will he play defensively as he's too big and possibly too slow to play at a high level in the hot corner and his arm strength is only so-so for the position but he has shown the aptitude to make himself an asset at third base defensively based on his offseason work and I think that he will develop to be a solid defender there at best. In any case that he should move a position, the outfield or the other side of the diamond would be good spots for him. The Giants do aggressive promotions quite often these days so I expect him to be with Augusta together with Heliot.
11. Shaun Anderson RHP
FB 60 | CUT 55 | SL 55 | CB 50 | CH 45 | CMD 45+
I am basing this idea mostly on his one appearance against Inland Empire where Conner Penfold got a nice video on it while I watched it on MiLB.tv, but I think Shaun Anderson got a chance to become a starter. His vast array of pitches in his disposal highlighted by a fastball that can reach 94 MPH with a cutter and slider that are his main out pitches, his curveball that I think is better than other people grades it out as I see it as a solid pitch with future above average ceiling on it, and I am a little skeptical with his changeup as it doesn't look as enticing as his other pitches.
He can repeat his mechanics for multiple innings with enough strike-throwing ability and intense competitive mentality. There are times where he loses control of his stuff and will battle inconsistency but I do believe he can start in the Majors, and that's an exciting idea given the fact that he's mainly considered as a middle reliever. That's probably what he'll end up in the big league level with a chance of spot starting but if he will throw more consistent outings of 6+ innings this year, he can certainly crack the top 10 come midseason.
12. Seth Corry LHP
FB 60 | CB 60 | CH 50+ | CMD 40
The third rounder who the Giants paid overslot has been inconsistent in the Arizona League, with bouts of wildness but also flashes the potential that made him a third round pick. He clearly has three pitches, both with excellent movement at their best especially his curveball that is plus or better when he's in sync. However, he struggles to be in sync with his body and his mechanics that results to him struggling to find his balance throughout his delivery that will result to inconsistent release points. One thing he can do to have more balance is to add a little crossfire in his drive because he's separating his hips too much and causing unnecessary torque.
I will give Corry two full seasons and evaluate back on whether he's improved his command and is still on track to reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter with Matt Moore comps being thrown at him. If not, he's very similar to Matt Krook as a guy who has so much nastiness in his stuff but has little idea where it's going. I think Corry has better athleticism than Krook given Corry's athletic background and has been working hard this offseason in his strength and overalls and that has brought some delight in me in terms of reaching his ceiling. The claims of him throwing 95-97 MPH will be doubtful until he actually throw a pitch in a regular season start so let's watch out for that.
Tier 4
13. Ryan Howard SS/2B/3B
Hit 50 | Power 40 | Speed 50 | Arm 55 | Glove 50+
14. C.J. Hinojosa 2B/SS
Hit 50+ | Power 40 | Speed 35 | Arm 55 | Glove 50
Howard didn't do anything wrong at San Jose this season as he's proven to be a solid infield prospect while C.J. He's quite comparable to fellow infield prospect C.J. Hinojosa with the exception of their height and their speed where Howard flashes more raw speed but their profiles are the same. Both are contact hitters that are solid if not spectacular in terms of getting the barrel to the ball and making consistent contact with gap to gap power. Defensively, both have nice arm strength and has solid fundamentals and internal body clocks to make routine and some spectacular plays in the infield but both are bit by their fringy to below average range due to their raw speed so both has to move somewhere outside short for a better defensive fit.
C.J. has shown a better patience in the box compared to Howard but looks to be having a role quite similar to Kelby Tomlinson in he future as possible Swiss knife-type of players that can slotted anywhere in the infield and won't hurt you in both offense and defense.
15. Reyes Moronta RHP
FB 75 | SL 60 | CMD 50
Moronta got a sip of coffee at the Major Leagues after pitching impressively in Sacramento in August and early September and I can already see that he can have a nice run as a good reliever for the Giants. His mid to high-90s fastball jumps easily at the batters with minute cutting action on it but mostly is as straight as a dart and it's rare to see him actually have straight downwards movement on it when thrown below the zone. His slider is snappy with hard, late sweeping break when thrown correctly, almost frisbee-esque at times, but there are times where he loses the grip and easily hangs it with a harder, mid-80s variety and a slower, low-80s pitch. I haven't seen the changeup from him but he doesn't exactly need it as a two-pitch pitcher. The bulk of his body as well as his arm action bodes him well in terms of deception but not in terms of future health issues that might be coming. He can spot both his fastball and slider at times but tends to lose the feel for the pitches at times.
Moronta has already shown he's already ready for the big leagues and should have a firm grasp of at least a bullpen spot in the regular season.
16. Miguel Gomez IF
Hit 55 | Power 45 | Speed 35 | Arm 50+ | Glove 40+
Gomez has proven last year yet again that he's a natural hitter of the baseball where he managed to reach the Majors for a short run and is close to being stripped of the list. He's got the feel for the barrel and makes consistent contact with the ball on both sides of the batter's box. The main issue on him is where he should play. I think that having no defined position will actually help Gomez play in the field as even though he's a slight liability defensively, his ability to hit should allow him to play somewhere in the field given that he stays in SF.
With Bochy saying that he's got a little Pablo Sandoval in him, he doesn't joke around but I think though that trading him to the American League will suit him better as a designated hitter.
17. Garrett Cave RHP
FB 60 | CUT 50 | CB 60 | CH 40 | CMD 40
The first college player taken in last year's draft, Cave was slotted immediately to the bullpen in Salem-Keizer where it started fine for him but the wheels fell off in terms of command at the end of the season. A volatile prospect ever since he's a HS pitching prospect, Cave's main issue still finding consistent command as he's still having trouble repeating his arm slot even though his current mechanics are now much more appealing to watch. He got the ingredients to become a potent reliever with his fastball that will probably sit mid-90s in the pen with some running life on it and couple that with his power curveball that is above average to plus when thrown right. His cutter is pretty inconsistent where I have seen impressive to half-decent ones and his changeup definitely needs a makeover.
But I do feel the one thing that will make him a starter or a reliever is his command. Cave's mechanics is simple and loose enough for him to throw adequate strikes and the arm action's clean enough to repeat it consistently so I think it all comes down to his athleticism whether he can repeat his mechanics enough to be a starting option. I think he's got a chance to start if he can figure out how to pitch even though it's slim to almost none. If not, his fastball and curveball will surely fit nicely in a high-leverage relief role. It's whether the Giants will be aggressive on him or not. In my opinion, I would rather place him in San Jose and give him 4-5 inning outings and see if he can make it there or he's better as a 2-inning fireman.
18. Heath Quinn OF
Hit 45 | Power 55 | Speed 45 | Arm 55 | Glove 50
After sustaining an injury that held his start of the season to May, Quinn seemed to be bothered by the issue and hasn't been the type of hitter that fans expected from him last year: a hitter with considerable raw power and consistently makes loud contact with the ball. I will give Quinn the benefit of the doubt in terms of his ability to hit and a healthy 2018 should give us a better look on whether we have seen the best of Quinn or he's just getting started.
19. Tyler Cyr RHP
FB 60 | CB 60 | SPL 55 | CMD 50
Cyr has put up a very strong season statistically in 2017 regular season that brought him to the Arizona Fall Legue and also showed strong impressions in the field. A 10th rounder in 2015 draft, Cyr has a tall and fall delivery with a short leg drive and plenty of crossfire that he repeats well in one to two-inning stints. His arm action isn't pretty but he finds his release point and can throw quality strikes although there are some stints of wildness but he stays around the plate for the most part.
He got three pitches in his repertoire, all with very good potential. His four-seam fastball can reach 95 to 96 MPH and while it's relatively straight, the downhill plane he creates in his delivery helps in his favor. He also has a two-seam variety in the low-90s with good sink but has doesn't locate the pitch as well as his four-seam. His power low-80s curveball flashes plus with hard 11-5 break. I only have seen a couple of low-80 splitters that he's thrown but it flashed plenty of promise with a late and hard break that he throw primarily to lefties as sort of changeup.
With three potential plus pitches in his pocket, Cyr is still learning to throw quality strikes consistently though he might only have average at best command but the nastiness that helped him have more than a strikeout an inning will serves him well in the Majors.
20. Bryce Johnson OF
Hit 50 | Power 30 | Speed 60 | Arm 50 | Glove 60
The sixth-rounder out of Sam Houston State is a prototypical leadoff hitter: make contact, get hits, draw walks, steal bases, get hit by pitches. He's a switch hitter but is obviously a better hitter on his natural right side where he's shown the ability to drive the ball more whereas he does only puts the ball in play on his left side with almost nonexistent ability to hit for power there. He doesn't really need it anyway as he got plus or better speed and has the ability to steal bases at a very good rate, something that the Giants sorely lacks: a smart base stealer.
Looks like he's a nice value pick by the Giants in the sixth round and has a little bit of Steven Duggar in him as a potential fourth outfielder or a nice callup option and can be an everyday guy once he hits consistently on both sides of the plate as a potential tablesetter.
21. Melvin Adon RHP
FB 75 | SL 55 | CH 40 | CMD 40
After his first full season, I am now confident to say the Adon fits much better in a bullpen role as his starting gig in Augusta might just be getting him the innings that he need for the reps since he's started his pro career older than others. Adon can throw strikes in short bursts and has toned down his mechanics to a point where he can repeat it in multiple innings. His fastball can hold steady at high-90s with immense running action and his average arm speed does make his heater jump on hitters. His slider is a consistent solid to above average pitch with fastball look and a sweeping break. The two-pitch combo will be nightmarish especially against righties with his long arms and a slinging style of throwing the baseball. However, the command on the slider is inconsistent. His changeup showed flashes of becoming an average pitch but is always fringy especially in terms of selling the pitch and its command.
I placed him just ahead of Ruotolo even though I like Ruotolo's command better, I like Adon's pure stuff more and should fast track the minors if he produces a very good 2018.
22. Patrick Ruotolo RHP
FB 55 | CB 60 | CMD 50
The Augusta closer for the 2017 season showed the polish and the stuff to become a viable relief prospect. While he lacks in size, he's got the deception in his mechanics where he reaches all the way back and then throwing the ball in an over the top release point, something that he can repeat quite well throughout the season. Combine that with his good low-90s fastball and a hammer curveball will give you a solid reliever to place your bet on.
Expect him to pitch in the San Jose bullpen as possibly the closer yet again and he has proven he can pitch in tight spots and not just in bases clear situations. Coming from the same college of Yankee reliever David Robertson, Ruotolo should gain more attention if he put up an impressive first half this year.
23. Julian Fernandez RHP
FB 80 | SL 50 | CH 40 | CMD 40
Unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft by the Rockies last year, the Giants took a shot on someone who throws extremely hard in Julian Fernandez. Fernandez reminds me very well of Ray Black, without the injury plague: someone who throws consistent 99-101 MPH fastballs with good movement on it and a decent slider and bad changeup that gets swings and misses based on the velocity alone but doesn't know where it's going. The good thing with Fernandez though is that at times last year, he's shown the ability to spot his fastball at times without sacrificing velocity. Fernandez does have an athletic and lanky frame with a big arm swing that I would like to compact in order to gain more control of his mechanics.
The Giants take a shot at an extreme arm with the hopes that they can develop him into a potential weapon and he's still relatively young at 22 years old so there's plenty of thread in those tires to make it work.
Tier 5
24. Sam Wolff RHP
FB 65 | SL 55 | CB 45 | CH 40 | CMD 45
The centerpiece of the salary-shedding Matt Moore trade to the Rangers, the injury-plagued Wolff has a pretty good shot in the bullpen someday. He should sit mid-90s in his fastball with good movement in it and compliments it with a nice two-plane slider with good bite that can be a plus for him. His curveball is more of a floater and is more of a compliment than a reliable weapon and his changeup can be shelved because it's a poor pitch. The two issues with him are his injury history and his command that can be explained by his stiff delivery though he can deliver quality strikes at times.
There's limited video for Wolff to fully see what he can become and he's already hovering in his age 27 season so his Major League impact could be limited but he got the potential to be a solid reliever if ever he gets healthy.
25. Joan Gregorio RHP
FB 65 | SL 50 | CH 40+ | CMD 45
I am down on Gregorio for years unlike the people who rank him in the top 10 at times because I don't really find him an interesting follow due to a true reliever profile that is still given all the chance to start. His numbers last year are perplexing as his strikeouts are way down and his walks are way up but his ERA is around 3 and compare that to his 2015 where his ERA is horrible but his K/9 and BB/9 are very good but he ended up getting hit by the doping suspension that ended his 2017 season early.
He should fit best in a reliever profile in the Giants but he's already in his age-27 season so he needs to perform so that he's not stuck in the AAAA level.
26. D.J. Snelten LHP
FB 50+ | SL 50 | CH 50 | CMD 50
Snelten is the best true lefty relief option that the Giants have right now and in the team that lacks lefty relief pitching, he's got a potential to make an impact. Snelten has some Alex Wood elements in his mechanics and uses his height to generate downhill plane in his sinker-slider repertoire. The stuff might not be wipeout unlike the Giants relievers that the organization currently have but he does have the control and command for his sinker that made him a groundball weapon. He should be in the midst of joining the big league club in 2018.
27. Kelvin Beltre 2B/3B/SS
Hit 40 | Power 45 | Speed 50 | Arm 60 | Glove 50
Beltre is still a raw product offensively as his 2017 stats might suggest. Looking at videos, he doesn't look like to be more than a fringey to an average at best right-handed hitter with some pop and can produce good contact with the ball. His stance is what I am worried the most where he doesn't really generate the pop that his above average raw power would suggest otherwise. He projects to be a third baseman with a strong arm and just average quickness that would make him a liability to play at short. He's made some routine plays in second base and can also fit there.
I don't really feel a lot of positives with regards to Beltre ever since I first started taking a look at him a couple of years ago and that thing still holds as he looks to be a defense-first position player.
28. Camilo Doval RHP
FB 65 | SL 50+ | CMD 35
Doval's a young relief prospect that we should get more notice. His profile is quite similar to Melvin Adon but Doval is much skinnier while having the same stuff and is four years younger. Doval has a slinging delivery capable of delivering fastball up to 97 MPH where he currently sits low to mid-90s and will probably hover at mid-90s in the maturation of his frame. With excellent spin rates in his fastball according to Eric Longenhagen, he can throw it with running action and with cutting action, the latter one I can see as a potential wipeout one. His slider flashes plus with great downwards action with some sweeping movement as well.
Doval is still very raw considering his age and his command is still in its earliest stages but the potential based on his stuff makes him a promising prospect. It's just unfortunate that he's a relief-only profile based on his mechanics and his body frame and he reminds me of Randall Delgado in terms of the mechanics and stuff.
29. Alexander Canario OF
Hit 35 | Power 45 | Speed 60 | Arm 50 | Glove 50
Signed for just $60,000 in the 2016 J2 cycle, Canario is the youngest prospect in the DSL squad last year if I'm not mistaken and he's currently generating the greatest buzz in the Giants prospect hounds.
Out of the J2 pool that netted Enoc Watts and Gordi Santos, Canario looks like an absolute steal based on his stat line in the DSL and the eyewitness reports. Videos of him are very limited so far in his career but it already offered what's in store. You can see his projectable physique, his loose swing with impressive bat speed and loft, and he got impressive strength for his body frame to generate home runs. Jury's out on his defensive potential and his arm strength as well as his raw speed so the grades that I gave him in speed, arm and glove are the same as far as I looked in 2016.
Canario's just starting in his career and he's still miles away in terms of his development but his DSL stint has showed enough promise to be excited on what he can become. Not bad for a $60,000 signing.
30. Malique Ziegler OF
Hit 40 | Power 40 | Speed 75 | Arm 50 | Glove 50+
Ziegler is an interesting case as he's off to a scorching start in Salem-Keizer, he cooled off towards the end of the season but the potential in terms of a bat as a potential center field prospect. He got crazy speed, the best in the organization, and that gives him tremendous coverage at center where his arm is sufficient enough to play there. His base stealing technique could use more work but the potential is there as long as he hits enough. He got surprisingly good pop for his frame and he can generate hard contact but he struggles with pitch recognition often but he got some potential to make it work.
Dissecting A Bit the Case of Jalen Miller
Over the past three years, Jalen Miller has teased us with his potential due to his superb athletic ability and his impressive spring performances where people would get hyped up and thinking "this is the year Jalen Miller's gonna be the star!" but he'll put up a disappointing season offensively and that has been happening for 2 and a half years now.
Given that the Giants have been particularly aggressive on him in terms of promotion where the brass gave him a promotion to San Jose last year even though he struggled throughout his stay in Augusta, hitting against better pitching. But the Cali League should be a hitter's league and he should perform outside San Jose right? Looking at his home & away splits, the answer is his numbers did improve away from San Jose but were still below average by hitting standards. Looking at his season stats, you might notice that he's put up almost very similar season stat lines in every level he's promoted. What if the Giants try not to promote him and let him play in San Jose in 2018? Will he be finally going to hit well the second time he's been in a league or will he continue to stall offensively? Are the Giants going to promote him to Richmond this season and produce the same lines again and we'll go back to talk about his enigmatic development again?
Probably, even though he's just entered his age-21 season this year, the Jalen Miller with the star potential might be in the rearview mirror but still, there's hope for Miller to become a productive everyday regular once he figure out how to hit consistently. Again, he's still 21 years old, around the same age of a typical college prospect, and he's already playing in High-A ball. That's something to commend. However, the bust labels are already coming out and he really need to put up a turnaround season with his bat to make him a relevant prospect to follow.
Other Interesting Prospects in no particular order
Jalen Miller- read above.
Dan Slania- Slania earned his MLB debut last season and has shown the potential to be a nice relief option with chance to be a spot starter. His fastball-slider-change repertoire are good enough pitches for Slania to succeed in the Major League level and his feel for pitching and his mechanics is actually impressive for his body size with a short arm action and has crossfire elements.
Conner Menez- Menez performed very well in San Jose as a season-long starter, with the lefty's ERA consistently hovering the 3 mark until August where I think fatigue can be the reason because of the dog days of summer. I think his stuff can play in the Majors with a nice low-90s fastball-slider combo with feel also for his changeup and curveball. He might need to improve on his stamina for his stuff to last longer and be a Ty Blach or he can also transition to the bullpen in order to gain more ticks in his fastball.
Jason Bahr- The 5th round pick last year is pretty interesting because he's quite similar to Garrett Cave. Bahr's fastball reaches only up to 93 to 94 MPH and sits in the low-90s but the pitch has plenty of running action and it pretty tough to square up and he got some feel to it. His curveball flashes solid and the projection to his changeup looks nice given his repeatable mechanics and loose arm action. I hope he should continue to start in his first full season.
Joey Marciano- The 36th rounder in last year's draft (yes, you read it correctly, 36th rounder) has been quite good at the Instructional League, flashing a decent three pitch mix in a video from Jason Perrini with a above-average looking curveball with good bite, a fastball that's in the high-80s and a changeup that looks good but he slows his body down so it kind of take away the deception a bit. He's 23 now though but he's got a shot to be something to look forward for down the road.
Diego Rincones- Unless the pitch is going to hit him, Rincones would take a swing at it as long as the pitch is hittable in his eyes. Hell, he might even swing to a pitch that would hit him! With that said, Rincones has strong wrists to generate very good bat speed, slight bat wrap but often gets the timing of the pitch and places the good part of the barrel, and has good power projection. The problem is guys with the type of aggressiveness that he has often doesn't make it too far. Rincones has the looks of a hitter with a special feel for the barrel so let's see his progress this year.
Aaron Bond- One of the top performers of the Arizona League squad, Bond flashes potential to become a relevant prospect because he got a good potential with his bat as it got good left to it and he's strong and has some feel to hit. He's got a strong arm as well which suggests that he can be a capable right fielder when seasoned well. A must-follow for 2018.
Tyler Rogers- While 99% of the prospects can either throw hard or has a nasty breaking pitch, Rogers is effective by slinging it down under. Even with finesse stuff, he makes use of his long limbs to baffle righties and have them pound the earth with his low to mid-80s sinker and a decent slider. Rogers should be a fascinating look in terms of being a bullpen option in the Majors.
Ricardo Genoves- The best young catching prospect that the Giants organization possesses, Genoves flashes good defensive potential behind the dish with a strong arm, good leadership skills, athletic actions at the crouch and pretty soft glove to frame pitches. Offensively however needs plenty of work as his athleticism doesn't show at all with below average bat speed and raw pitch recognition abilities.
Gio Brusa- Looks like what you see is what you will get from Brusa: a switch hitting corner outfielder with good pop but has contact issues.
Gregory Santos- Part of the Eduardo Nuñez deal along with Shaun Anderson, Santos looks to be an interesting low level pitching prospect with reports of having a 92-95 MPH fastball and a slider that has the potential to be a plus pitch and a non-zero chance to start according to Eric Longenhagen.
Sam Coonrod- Struggled with command throughout the 2017 season, his stuff receded and his season ultimately ended with a Tommy John surgery, Coonrod's status as a prospect has never been this low and might never recover as he might just be an organizational player post-Tommy John.
Jordan Johnson- He fell flat and out of prospect considerations due to his poor performance and lack of improvements in terms of his control and command particularly his mechanics. He will likely going to be an organizational filler moving forward with still belief that he can still have some relevance because his changeup is the second best changeup in the farm system behind Beede.
Ronnie Jebavy- Still the best defensive player that the Giants have in the system right now, Jebavy will struggle to find a role in the upper minors if he doesn't improve his hit tool and the chances are getting that he'll improve are slimmer every minute.
Matt Gage- The PCL has been unforgiving for Gage as he struggled to find a consistent ground in the toughest hitting environment around but his pitch to contact approach might be better in the Majors as a lefty middle relief option.
Rodolfo Martinez- Tough to give up on a pitching prospect that once reached 102 MPH in his fastball and seemed to be on the fast track to the Majors until he hit the AA wall and suffered a dead arm state. He does look to be slowly rounding up to be the hardthrower that he once was but the command is still going to improve as his fastball is now more in the mid-90s and has yet to commit on a second pitch with his changeup looking to be a better out pitch than his slider in my opinion.
Ismael Munguia- A little man with a big swing, Munguia showed good bat speed as well as a good approach in the box. He's still very young and is still raw in terms of quality pitching so he has to improve in his offensive ability because his other tools are below average at best with the exception of his plus speed.
Cory Taylor- Command of his sinker is highly pivotal in Taylor's success in 2016 but unfortunately, he struggled in that department in 2017 as he's struggled to pitch in the rotation with just one quality pitch.
Sandro Cabrera- Cabrera moved to the bullpen after being downright horrible in his early starts and while the stat lines still shows plenty of rawness in his development, there's still hope as a relief option with his fastball and curveball but there's still a very high chance he'll be a bust.
Conner Nurse- A 34th rounder last year (how did the Giants signed 2 30+ rounders with good potential?), Nurse hasn't pitched at all in the AZL team last year but surely he's pitching in the back fields and there's promise to him as he's a tall and projectable pitcher with three pitches and he's paid for 6th round money (according to his reddit AMA before).
Dusten Knight- Knight was magical early last year in San Jose and was promoted very aggressively to Sacramento after a couple of months but has struggled with his command. There's no denying that his curveball is a very good pitch but his otherwise average fastball velocity will likely have him struggle to find a career in the big leagues unless he rediscover the type of command of his pitches that he showed in San Jose.
Gustavo Cabrera- Gustavo played very well actually in Salem-Keizer with the flashes of his raw power showing up in games and generates loud contact but there's still obvious rawness in his approach but he's slowly improving and that's a good sign considering he's almost done in his pro career a few years ago.
Jacob Heyward- Jason's younger brother played pretty well in Augusta last season but with the plethora of outfield prospects that the Giants currently has, the problem for Jacob moving forward would be playing time.
John Russell- see below.
My Pick For The Breakout Prospect This 2018
For the past couple of years, I picked the correct prospect that will break out in the 2016 and 2017 seasons in Steven Duggar and Garrett Williams and for quite obvious reasons actually. In the case of Duggar, he's put up impressive offensive numbers in his senior year, in the Cape Cod League and in his stint in Salem-Keizer even though he's got an ugly, broken swing so fixing it should make him a very good prospect considering his athleticism and tools. In the case of Williams, I'm puzzled how he's played barely in college even though he's got very good stuff and has a relatively simple and repeatable mechanics and polishing it should make him improve. Well, you know how what happened for the two.
This year however, picking up the breakout prospect this year is hard. There's a big chance that this segment can be renamed as "Which 2017 Draft Prospect will break out in 2018?" because it's very easy to do that as with the cases of Duggar and Williams but outside of the top 5 picks, there's not much excitement going on outside of Bond, Bahr and Nurse that has Top 10 potential. That said, I won't pick someone like a Heliot because he's already the top prospect and people pretty much expect that from him.
This year, my pick for the breakout prospect this year is Sandro Fabian. He's already in the top 10 I know but I feel like he can do much more. He's proven he got the ability to hit the ball with authority for quite a good amount especially at the second half of last year so he's already a special hitter with a chance to be above average defensively in right field. If he realized last year that he needs to stay patient and be willing to take the free base via base on balls, he'll be easily a top 5 prospect. That ability though isn't really easy to project to change because it's more mental than mechanical so I'm betting Fabian should get going. Let's see if I get this right in this one.
I would make a case for Alex Canario because he's got exciting tools and has a ceiling to be a Top 3 prospect in the organization but he's still very young and has so much to do before reaching his ceiling. Early reviews though are quite similar to Victor Robles so let's see.
Which 2017 Draft Prospect will break out in 2018?
Well, if you are really looking forward in which 2017 draft prospect would break out in 2018, you have to look no further than John Russell, the 16th round pick. Russell is tall and really wiry with a pedestrian fastball but he's got a pair of breaking balls that grades out as above-average or better in his slider and curveball, both hard-breaking pitches, and it showed in his 14.7 K/9 in his cup of coffee in Salem-Keizer. He can throw both his slider and curveball for strikes and also can make hitters chase it when thrown out the zone with both coming on the same tunnel as his fastball. He often tends to rely on his breaking balls too much due to his fastball and that could eventually lose effectiveness especially in the high minors. His mechanics has a slight stab in it and doesn't have the smoothest arm action in the world but he got some feel to repeat his arm action and get on top of his breaking balls.
If Russell manages to add bulk in his 6'3", 170-pound frame and add more ticks in his fastball for it to be a respectable pitch, he should break out. Now, this is just what ifs from now on but if he ever add up in his frame, I would give him a shot in the rotation because his mechanics looks to be repeatable enough for his breaking ball but fastball command could be a potential issue. If he works on that, he should have non-zero chance of starting.
UConn has produced plenty of good relief prospects and the Giants grabbed two in a row in Ruotolo and Russell and the former has already done a good job in his first full season. Let's see if Russell can perform the same or better than Ruotolo.
Best Tools
Hitters:
Hit- Miguel Gomez
Power- Chris Shaw
Speed- Malique Ziegler
Arm- Johneshwy Fargas
Glove- Ronnie Jebavy/Steven Duggar
Athleticism- Heliot Ramos*
*Might be surprised that Ramos isn't the best in one category except for athleticism. Well, Ramos got the best compilation of those five tools and the combination of those tools and athleticism is what makes him special.
Pitchers:
Fastball- Julian Fernandez
Curveball- Garrett Williams
Slider- Andrew Suarez
Changeup- Tyler Beede
Command- Andrew Suarez
Athleticism- Seth Corry
In any case I miss prospects that you otherwise find to be interesting, you can hit me up in Twitter or leave a comment in the comments section below. Enjoy!
Great rundown! Always enjoy your reports!
ReplyDeleteHere are the books I had mentioned:
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1483590933/
Do You Want to Work in Baseball?: Advice to acquire employment in MLB and mentorship in Scouting and Player Development
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1933599235/
Can He Play?: A Look At Baseball Scouts and Their Profession (SABR Digital Library) (Volume 1)
Both very cheap on Kindle.
Good luck!
Best, ogc
Thanks for the books once again ogc! Will definitely look at that!
DeleteThe free games picks in a pamphlet are for the most part the weakest and aren't right as a general rule, which is very justifiable in light of the fact that they are, all things considered, free. bet at home
ReplyDelete