Hello, folks! Baseball is certainly in full swing as Spring Training games are underway and the college baseball and high school baseball in the warm areas are also in their early season. With plenty of early season baseball also comes the early performances of top prospects for the 2018 MLB draft. I'm going to share my thoughts on the prospects and possible draft strategies that the Giants could run. Also, I'm going to share my opinion in the recently released MLB.com Giants Top 30 list.
Now here comes the fun part, the draft prospects. The prospect that generated the biggest buzz was the performance of USF redshirt sophomore lefty Shane McClanahan. McClanahan's debut performance against a powerful team, UNC Tar Heels, caught my eye as well. Look up at YouTube and you'll see He hit 100 MPH in the first inning of work and that's very rare for a lefty pitcher to reach but the more impressive part is that he's able to still hit 97 MPH in his final inning of work after 100+ pitches. The command is certainly not around as he's overthrowing his fastball a lot, possibly due to the adrenaline, but there are potential for solid or better command as he can hit his spots in fastballs away from a lefty batter's perspective. His changeup proved to be his best secondary pitch as he's selling it very well as a non-overthrown fastball with nice sinking action and his slider is an above-average pitch with some tilt at best. Right now, comparing McClanahan to Brady Singer, who carried his dominant CWS performance to this season, I am liking what I see from McClanahan more than Singer even though McClanahan already had Tommy John and has a slight frame. Actually, I can compare McClanahan to Tim Lincecum in terms of the slight frame and the stuff.
Singer also got plenty of recent videos to scrutinize. Singer's tempo is his carrying tool in my opinion and the tempo that he pitches can easily give unready hitters at the batter's box plenty of headaches. His fastball when thrown at the knees is a very hard pitch to lift and do damage due to the low three-quarters arm slot that he repeats well given his extremely quick tempo as he hit the catcher's glove on both sides of the plate at a pretty consistent rate. The arm slot easily gives the pitch a hard sinking and tailing action but there are times where he can miss spots with his fastball, it is generally left at the middle of the plate and hitters can do some damage at it. His slider or slurve is also very snappy with a hard two-plane break that comes from the same tunnel as his fastball often and with that mechanics, it is a hard time for a batter. Singer's changeup is less utilized but shows potential just like McClanahan's slider.
Continuing the college pitching trend, the next prospect on the line is Casey Mize. Now, Mize doesn't really have that wow performance that McClanahan and Singer brought to the table but his latest start against Bryant University is the best video that I can scrutinize (video courtesy of Adam McIntruff). I have seen that Mize touched 90 MPH in his first start and that gave me some worry whether his dead arm phase at the end of last season is still there but his second start eased my worries. He is consistently touching 92-96 MPH on his fastball throughout 80 pitches and 5 innings and even tapped 97 albeit an overthrown one. His fastball has the great sink in it but even though he's hitting spots a good number of times, the famed command that he has isn't there for him as of this moment especially with his slider that came in from an average to plus offering. (His fastball that was hit for a home run was a good pitch however, set up middle-in just where the catcher showed his mitt but the second homer was from a flimsy slider that he hung). His splitter is still the best offspeed pitch that I've seen in this draft aside from Singer's slider and will be his carrying pitch moving forward that generates plenty of swings and misses when thrown down and out of the zone where he often lives on it. But unless he will demonstrate the same command that he featured last year, he's below McClanahan, Singer, Matthew Liberatore and Ethan Hankins for me. Mize's stuff is definitely there and should continue to heat up.
As you have already seen, pitching dominates the draft currently and repping the HS ranks is Hankins. Hankins had a little scare but turned out to be just shoulder soreness but his brief appearance already showed improvement. While his fastball just continues to blow by hitters and laid waste on HS hitting, his curveball got better right now and I can see it as a potential plus or better pitch for him with a big but snappy 11-5 break that he can locate at the bottom of the zone. The other thing that I didn't notice in his latest video is his aggressive use of the quick pitch and timing delays as he's consistently throwing it with just one variety. I have a little bit of worry at the back of my mind that he could tear his UCL and undergo Tommy John because a kid throwing that hard at the very early stage of his career is a big risk even though his mechanics and arm action is very clean like Hankins'.
I haven't seen a fresh Liberatore or Nolan Gorman video as of this moment but there's reports that Gorman's hitting homers at a high level already and looks like the bat is very real and Liberatore will start his season really soon. Meanwhile, I couldn't really see Nick Madrigal in the running for the top 2 pick as I can see him as a top 4 pick at best but he's swinging the bat really, really well until he got injured and will sideline him for 6 weeks. Plenty of high risers have caught my eye as well like Connor Scott where I like his sweet swing and his plus speed, Mason Denaburg proving my inner thoughts last year that he can break out if he will be a pitcher full-time as correct with a plus fastball-curve combo and a clean mechanics, Carter Stewart having an uptick with his velocity, Ryan Rolison showing his plus curveball from the left side and hitting 94 on the gun, and Travis Swaggerty showing his power stroke as he proves to have the best collection of tools in the college crop.
There's two ways that the Giants can attack this number 2 overall pick that depends on who the Tigers will pick first and the type of season that the Giants are having by the time June swing around. First, with all the pitching riches that the Tigers already have, I can see them grabbing Gorman at a discount like Royce Lewis last year, leaving the Giants with all the pitching riches that they have never experienced since the last decade. I agree with the point of Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs where if the Giants are in contention, they can select McClanahan, fast-track him like hell and give the Giants a second lefty option aside from Tony Watson then continue his starting pitching track next season.
But, what if the Giants suffer mediocrity or still suck this season? Will they still draft McClanahan? The answer to that might still be yes, but if the Giants will suck, I would grab Hankins as he got the highest ceiling in the draft with potential to be a frontline one. Not to say that McClanahan cannot be a top-of-rotation starter where he has the best lefty stuff that I have seen from the college ranks since Carlos Rodon, but thinking about the long-term, a duo of Heliot Ramos and Hankins might be the next core to build around after MadBum and Buster. McClanahan/Singer/Mize can still do the trick here but there's worries about Mize's long-term health, Singer's true ceiling and his mechanics, as well as some feel that McClanahan will have a Lincecum-like career: short but well-lived. I know the Giants will always have Gorman in their mind because the Giants crave for power and Gorman fits the bill easily and fills a position that could be of need in 3-5 years time at third base.
As far as early performances go, the top draft prospects didn't disappoint as there are zero front-runner at the moment and should be followed by Giants fans really hard until draft day but I can already see that there's separation from the rest of the pack as I can see either McClanahan, Singer, Madrigal, Mize, Gorman, Hankins and Liberatore go for the Tigers for the first overall pick and will leave the Giants with the same talent level, if not more. I can't really say for the second round pick at the moment as I need to scour all the available resources throughout the coming months until I can make a nice guess of the talent pool available at that round.
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In this edition of Something Extra, I take a look at the recently released MLB.com Top 30 list and it's full of intriguing names.
While it's very obvious that Heliot Ramos will be at the top of the food chain, I was extremely disappointed with the grades regarding his tools (all just above-average) as compared to Steven Duggar, the third best prospect, who has plus grades in speed, arm strength and fielding ability at center field with an above-average hit tool. Hell, if Duggar has that kind of grades in his tools, why was he considered just an average prospect? I can easily peg Duggar as the second best prospect in the season right now and the power should come as he already hit a homer in a Spring Training game. Not to say it's plus but it's definitely on his pull side.
Looking at the list I can flip the trio of Beede, Shaw and Duggar around and would still end up as a happy camper. The Slater placement is interesting as it's more on the performance-side of things and proximity-side rather than pure tools. I'm more of a tools guy, by the way. Fabian at 6 is a nice sight for me, as once he learns to take walks and not really swing his way to an out, he could easily jump to top 2 and maybe top 3 once the number 2 pick comes around. Another positive sight is Shaun Anderson at the 8 spot where they are plenty nice on his fastball-slider-changup combo, his feel for pitching given his reliever background at Florida and his potential as a mid-rotation starter. They are also quite realistic about Garrett Williams' future as command and his changeup are the hurdles that he needs to overcome to determine if he's a mid-rotation starter or a two-pitch lefty reliever.
A nice bit was written on Jacob Gonzalez's profile regarding his soft hands, giving him a non-zero chance to stick at third base and they are very optimistic about Heath Quinn's 2018 season as he's fully recovered from his hammate and shoulder injuries.
The two of the biggest surprises for me are the aggressive rankings of Alexander Canario (should be shortened to Alex) and Gregory Santos with plenty of nice things to say about the two. While I have only seen a short Canario clip lately (credits to Kim C), it's proven that he can be something with the bat as he has the bat control to foul off a pitch going inside when he's probably thinking of a pitch away. That kind of split-second adjustment is more of a natural gift and cannot be taught. Santos was also given a nice report with potential for two plus pitches although he's still far away. Nonetheless, it looks like the Giants could win the Eduardo Nuñez trade in the end.
Tyler Herb is the other biggest surprise. He was named as the PTBNL in the Chris Heston trade where Heston ended up with the Giants again but Herb's known for his low-90s sinking fastball and average secondaries. In the videos of him last season, I am not overly hyped up nor I am disappointed with what I saw, he's pretty plain but there should be enough elements for him to be a #5 starter or an AAAA one.
Melvin Adon will surely a reliever in the end. They still show some love for Joan Gregorio while I don't. Same can be said for Kelvin Beltre, Sam Coonrod and Jordan Johnson.
To wrap up the top 30 review, it's nice to see Ricardo Genoves and most of all, Malique Ziegler at the bottom of the list. I didn't expect Genoves to be on the list because even though he's a defensive wizard behind the plate, his offensive potential looks to be very limited with how his bat speed and bat control will play. Ziegler on the other hand proved to be the best runner in the farm system with a speed grade of 70 and has a plus defensive potential at center. Like Genoves, the problem for Ziegler is his ability to make contact and have some sort of homer power but it's a breathe of positivity and hope to see the two make the list.
Upon reading the prospect lists, I am leaning to place Canario and Santos much higher on my list but I'm disappointed on the omission of Tyler Cyr after a dominant 2017 season with the Flying Squirrels. Overall, I like the prospect list of the Giants but still lacks the game-changing player aside from Heliot. Hopefully, the number 2 pick as well as the later picks and Marco Luciano, a top J2 prospect for this year who's being linked to the Giants a lot, could help.
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That's a wrap for me for now. I hope you enjoyed reading and stay tuned for more of my posts regarding the 2018 draft as well as prospect evaluations once the minor league season comes around. Never forget to have the Augusta GreenJackets as the team to follow this year with a new ballpark, new set of uniforms as well as Heliot Ramos and Jacob Gonzalez!
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