Welcome to my monthly prospect reports! This will be a monthly event, with some issues trying to sort out to make this prospect reports more interesting and fun. In this edition, we are going to take a look at the performances of plenty (and I mean plenty of notable prospects) in the month of April.
Leading off, let’s highlight the prospects that us Giants
fans hold as the crème de la crème, the dynamic duo of San Jose, Joey Bart and
Heliot Ramos. Unfortunately, both were hit by pitches that resulted to Bart
breaking his hand on April 15 and a sprained LCL for Heliot on April 24, and it
will be expected for both to miss a month of action. But when they were on the
field, the duo put on quite a show. Bart showed his maturity and how advanced
his tools are, as he exhibited his ability to hit for power, with an isolated
power of .270, improving walk rate and strikeout rate of 7.3% and 14.6% compared
to 5.9% and 19.7% last year, with tape measure ding dongs captured by some
Giants fans on the bleachers. Bart’s maturity is also evident defensively, where
his arm is on display, throwing out 7 runners in 19 attempts and his ability to
handle a pitching staff looks good, supported by the 2.98 team
ERA with him in the squat and 5.23 ERA with him off. Coincidence? I think not. I think that Bart is
very advanced at this moment that I think he should be moved to AA after the
Cal League all-star break. I am not in favor of making him a big leaguer this
year because he missed a good amount of time due to this hand injury. Fall
League ABs however, that I can get behind.
Next up is our man Heliot. I have said in my prospect primer
that he improved his strikeout rate in quadruple of his at bats in the Sally.
In the Cal league this year, Ramos continued the descent of his strikeout rate,
down to 24.1%. But the thing that caught my attention about 6 games in and
noticed by everyone now is his massive improvement in his walk rate, said it by
10% to 16.9% this year and took an average of 5.38 pitches/AB compared to 4.10
last year. That’s 1 more ball per at bat! Another notable stat that worth
noting is the emergence of his power. We all know that Heliot has that kind of
raw power capable of launching 470+ foot bombs but has failed to showed it in
games last year. This year, it felt like he swapped his weapon from M’Jolnir to
Stormbreaker and started doing massive damage. His .587 slugging is a direct
result of 10 of his 17 hits going for extra bases, 5 of which cleared the yard.
All of those extra bases is a direct result of hitting the ball in the air
more, where Heliot improved his flyball rate from 31.5% to 46.7% and you will
see in his spray charts this year that most of his balls went towards the
middle or the opposite field, only 29% of his balls in play went to his pull
side. Beat the shift! Long story short, Heliot’s improved offensively, and there
are plenty of evidence to support it, either by data or by eyewitness accounts.
Now that the top two dogs are out of the way, it’s now time
for me to talk about the notable prospects in every level, from Augusta to
Sacto. First up is the Greenjackets. The best prospect that we have in the
team, Sean Hjelle, has been pitching well with the squad, pumping solid to
impressive starts in April, and we have come to the point that he pitched
almost the same amount of innings as his stint in Salem-Keizer last year and I
am shocked in how similar almost all of his raw numbers, but his ERA is much
1.5 points lower, and his FIP and xFIP are lower as well. The peripherals are
still strong for Hjelle but the noticeable stat so far is his massive
improvement in his groundball rate, at 65 and a half percent this year compared
to 47% last year. Stadium guns in A ball are pretty sketchy so I am not 100%
sold on the broadcasts reporting Hjelle reaching 94-96 MPH consistently on his
fastball while an MiLB article indicated he pitched 91-94 in his best start of
the year. Nonetheless, Hjelle’s ability to pitch with three pitches with his
fastball, knuckle curve and changeup from that high of a platform is impressive,
resulting to a tick below 24% strikeout rate and a 14 and a half swinging
strike rate (league average is 9.5%). There’s inconsistency in terms of true
command of his pitches based on film but to be honest, I am shocked what is
Hjelle doing in A ball because I feel his pitchability already plays on a
better competition, like the Cali.
Fellow draftees Jake Wong and Blake Rivera have been solid
this month. Wong posting very similar peripherals like Hjelle with the
exception of Wong posting a higher flyball rate than last year, and has already
allowed 2 homers. I felt like Wong should be dominating the Sally with his
pitchability of his 4 pitches like Hjelle does, and if his latest start is any
indication, looks like he is going to as the temperature rises. Rivera’s ERA
pretty high and his strike throwing is still inconsistent, at a shade below 60%
of his pitches being strikes, he’s finally showing the nastiness that he’s
showed in junior college last year that disappeared in pro ball due to fatigue,
with his 28 and a half strikeout percentage, where his fastball-knuckle curve
reminds me of peak Mark Melancon. Rivera’s strike throwing and Wong’s ability
to dominate should be observed in the May prospect reports.
There are plenty of prospects that are averaging more than a
strikeout an inning this month, headlined by two pitchers: Seth Corry and Jesus
Tona. Corry’s struck out 40% of all the hitters he’s faced in April and leads
all current Augusta pitchers with an 18% swinging strike rate. We know that
Corry’s stuff is downright dirty when he’s on, as his sinker, curveball and
change all has plus potential or better but the problem for him will be his
strike throwing, with just 59.3% of his pitches thrown for strikes, and the 28%
line drive rate cannot be ignored. I am slowly believing that his troubles with
control are closing in to the point where relief will be his endgame but man,
Corry would fit right in and I am already seeing shades of a left-handed Blake
Treinen. Tona’s start is eye popping, to be honest.
If you check on YouTube, you will see the only video of
Tona, by Baseball Census as a catcher. But here he is, downright dominating the
Sally on the mound in 2019. How the hell did Tona only allowed one hit so far?
One! With 16 Ks! Will Cheney’s report on him is that Tona’s throwing in the
mid-90s and can touch 97 with a change that he’s confident on throwing at any
count. It also looks like strike throwing will not be a problem for Tona as
he’s thrown 71% of his pitches for strikes this month and thrown 67.2% last
year in his first rodeo as a full-time pitcher. Tona has the strong build as a
pitcher big thighs thanks to his catching background with good, quick actions
on the squat and while handling the bat. Keep a close eye on Tona as he might
be another one of those must follows and could be in the mid-season top 30 if
he keeps this up. The only issue that I see is his age, as he’s 23 already.
Another intriguing guy is Jesus Ozoria, a young righty
pitcher that the Giants got for Tom Murphy and made his debut on the 28th
with 4 shutout innings of 2-hit ball. Jason Penini of Prospects Live have a
video of Ozoria in XST this year and to be honest, I like what I saw. Ozoria’s
body looks proportional but does need maturity. His mechanics looks smooth with
similar tempo to Samardzjia but I would like to see him land closed on his
front foot, at a 45 degree angle as Pedro said. I am not a good eyeballer in
terms of fastball velo but I can say his fastball looked in the low-90s but
what I can say is his curveball is promising. He is like a dorodango. Ozoria’s
worth a follow. The few guys that I am pretty disappointed in the pitching side
are Gregory Santos due to his injury and Norwith Gudino due to PEDs. Never do
PEDs, people.
Moving to the hitters side, the most prominent name in
Augusta that is balling right now is the lefty first baseman Frankie Tostado.
We all be like, Frankie who? But yes, the man himself is no doubt rising. He is
following up his strong AZL campaign last year with a hot April for the
Greenjackets. He is showing off his good feel for hitting and good power, with
a .913 OPS and a solid peripherals to boot. The power so far translates to all
fields. The only concern right now is the BABIP is too high but yes, it sure is
toasty right now and if he carries this one to May, look out.
The other prospect who is on an early roll is Ismael
Munguia. Munguia’s already built a track record of being a pesky hitter who is
tough to strike out and based on his hot start, it is a story of having more
confidence as a result of repeating the league. Second chances, right? And the
thing that I have noticed with Munguia is that there’s a relationship between
his overall offensive impact with respect to his BABIP. If his BABIP is great,
his season is also great. If his season is bad, his BABIP is bad as well. He
lives and dies with his ability to put the ball to where fielders can’t get it.
Ichiro’s the best one that I have seen ever, I want to see more film of Munguia
if there’s enough bat control to make his offensive gameplan sustainable in the
future as the quality of pitching gets better and better.
Aside from Shane Matheny, the rest of the hitters in the
squad are off to a slow start. But you know what the old man say, it’s not how
you start, it’s how you finish.
I am going to cap the Augusta squad with two
hitters that are the best in what they do in terms of prospect lists: Jacob
Gonzalez and Diego Rincones. Yes, the numbers looked bad offensively this month
but there are plenty of silver linings if you just dig deep. First is Jacob.
Once again, Jason Penini pointed out Jacob’s reworked swing mechanics this year
and even though the production’s been underwhelming so far, his overall
approach are promising. A victim of the BABIP for 1 1/5 straight years already,
the simpler swing resulted to better vision of the strike zone so far, raising
his walk rate by 10% to 16.7% and that is greater than his K rate of 14.3%. He
also raised his flyball rate by 8% to 41.8% though he looks like will be a pull
hitter moving forward. The in-game power looks like on the verge of showing in
games with a .169 ISO, the best of his pro career so far. The big issue about
Jacob is still his defense at the hot corner. It is still very disappointing
even though he’s worked for the past couple of years to improve on it. Chances
of him staying as a third baseman for long haul is hanging by a thread,
objectively-speaking.
On the side of Rincones, I feel that he is out there to
prove that he will not be a Sandro Fabian-type of a hitter where he will stay
overaggressive and swing on all the balls that he sees regardless of location
because he can always put the bat on it. Rincones actually starts putting the
work of working the count, making the pitcher work more, trying to be better
all-around hitter. The production this month’s not good in terms of average and
power, hitting his worst BA so far since his first year playing in 2016 and
falling below .100 ISO for the first time in his career at 0.78, but hey, we at
silver linings nation do adore on the fact that Diego’s hardwork is paying off,
more than doubling his walk rate to a respectable 9.3% and an increase of
pitches per plate appearance, from 3.15 of last year to 3.61 this year. He’s
still struggling on pitch selection but his yes, I feel better now about
Rincones’ future as a hitter than before. Overall, the Augusta team has way
more positives than negatives at they hope to carry to the dog days of summer.
Moving up the ladder to San Jose, aside from the big bois of
the squad, the other prospect who is garnering plenty of attention is the start
of Raffi Vizcaino. Raffi became a full-time reliever this year after an
underwhelming 2018 where he struggled with control of his repertoire. Early
indications tells me that the moved to the pen did not really exactly improved
Raffi’s control, from a shade under 60% strikes last year to 61.2% this month. Raffi’s
swinging strike percentage of 15.5% is second best in the squad and 52%
strikeout rate is tops. What really improved on Vizcaino’s side is his fastball
velo ticked up, which is pretty usual, but that tick up of his fastball
velocity, now reaching 99 MPH, has made a huge difference.
My 2018 notes on
Vizcaino might be different now from this year’s version but what I wrote on
him is that his four-seamer is straight but throws it downhill and even though
his sinker looks solid, he’s allowed more flyballs than groundballs and I have
seen plenty of sinker more in the middle third of the plate rather than the
lower third. The curveball’s above average when thrown right with big 11-5
break but his command of the pitch is as problematic as his fastball. The
changeup could have been a great pitch for him but I have seen it less and
looks to focus on his fastball-curveball, where control and consistency is the
big, big issue. So far, so good. Also, we have to also put into context his
April 20th outing where he allowed 3 ER and 4 walks, the only dirty
outing from him. Remove that, zilch. Nada. Absolutely dominant. I look forward
to what the warmer weather in May can bring for Raffi, who I have the exact
same date of birth.
Looking at the other pitchers in the Lil’ Gigantes, Frank
Rubio and Matt Frisbee, both more known for their deception than stuff, are
doing well in the first month. Rubio’s second time pitching for the squad is
way better than 2018, strikeout rate of 12.3 K/9 and a swinging strike rate of
19.4% for the sidewinder with a low-90s heater and low-80s slidepiece who never
struck out more than a better per inning before this year while keeping his walk
rate to his usual standard. Frisbee is from Augusta originally but was promoted
to San Jose and made his latest start against Stockton. Frisbee is on the Jalen
Beeks-kind of deception that helped his low-90s heater and slider play better,
resulting to a K/9 that has not dipped below 11 and a swinging strike rate of
13.4% in SJ and 20.4% in Augusta. I feel Frisbee’s strikeout rate is more
sustainable than Rubio’s just because of the track record and I have not seen
any drastic change on Rubio but both are pretty impressive nonetheless.
Camilo Doval’s doing the déjà vu thing this year of starting
off a season with two really terrible outings as his baptism of fire then
pumping his usual, cutter slinging-self while leading the squad with a 19.4
swinging strike percentage, Aaron Phillips struggled to throw consistent
strikes except for his latest start where he threw 55 of 79 pitches for strikes
and went 6 innings of 3 hit ball with 1 walk and 9 Ks and has struck out more
an a hitter per inning and also struck out plenty in tough situations as is
Trent Toplikar and John Russell, while we lost Jose Marte as one of the plenty
of prospects in the squad being hit by the injury bug like some kind of an
epidemic.
The lineup’s been decimated with injuries, especially to top
prospects Bart, Heliot and David Villar, with Villar struggling out of the gate
and this injury just sucks. Almost every single one of the remaining healthy
hitters struggled to produce ever since the big tickets went to the shelf with
one exception, and that is Logan Baldwin, who was carrying an 11-game hitting
streak before an 0fer on April 30. Let’s hope that the rest of the hitters find
the resolve to pick up the void that Heliot and Bart left.
Moving to the double A level with the Richmond Flying
Squirrels, let’s start off with the big ticket in the squad, the consensus top
10 prospect right hander Logan Webb. If
the first month is of any indication, Webb’s stint in Spring Training camp and
his competitive spirit are paying off big time as he is climbing steadily to
become the best pitching prospect of the organization by mid-season. The
biggest stat to look on is the increase of % strikes thrown, to 68 and a half
percent in April. His heavy mid-90s sinker resulted to 2/3 of the balls hit
against him were groundballs. His sharp breaking ball is turning out to be a very
enticing pitch for hitters to chase, and the command of the pitch is
continuously improving, being able to drop the pitch to where the catchers sets
his glove. Webb’s progress resulted to him having his best strikeout rate since
2014, his rookie cup of coffee and the lowest walk rate since the start of his
comeback trail in 2017 with Salem-Keizer and the opponents BABIP tells me that
this run of his can be sustainable moving forward. The film supports what the
stats say. But now sadly, as soon as I wrapped up my transcript, I read that
Webb’s gonna be banned for 80 games, or the rest of the season, due to PEDs. I
really hurts me. I am really happy for him and now this. I don’t know. I don’t
really know.
Anyway, the other high-profile pitcher in the team is
flamethrowing righty Melvin Adon. The numbers look solid but I feel that his
numbers could’ve been even better. The walk rate and his WHIP pretty elevated,
even so his unsustainable BABIP but his strikeout rate is the best that ever
been in a full-time basis at a little over 27%. The percentage of players left
on base are also at its highest since his debut year at 72.2%. Consistent
strikethrowing will be a concern for him but in this day and age where velocity
trumps consistent command, I am not that concerned about Adon right now as his
numbers has a better shot of improving than not. Both Adon and Webb are as good
as advertised.
Two pitchers that are performing very well but not surprised
are Sam Wolff and Conner Menez. Old man Sam Wolff is back y’all. I am still
surprised what is Wolff doing in AA ball after absolutely destroyed his AFL
stint. He’s picked up where he left off this year and has been one of the best,
if not the best relief option in the squad right now not named Melvin Adon.
Armed with very strong peripherals like his 40% strikeout rate, 16% swinging
strike rate, 10% walk rate, holding hitters to a batting average of 0.185 and
his stuff of low to mid-90s fastball and a pair of solid breakers. The Giants
brass should give Wolff a chance to prove himself in AAA soon.
Menez’s AA numbers in April looked better this year as
compared to when he first pitched in the Eastern League last year, from the raw
stats to his peripherals, while maintaining his 30.7 K rate and 15.5 swinging
strike rate. Menez’s stuff is pretty much the same over the years, with his
low-90s fastball and his slider and curveball are solid compliments, it’s just
that his raw stuff from the left side might not be what teams are looking for
in the age of velocity. Then again, Menez has deception with his pitches coming
from a tough arm slot. The more interesting thing for Menez is that once he
gets promoted to Sacto some time this year, will his second rodeo in that level
pay huge dividends and be a serviceable big leaguer or will his stuff get
clobbered especially the balls in that level are juiced up like in the Major
Leagues. Also pay attention on his May starts because it seems that there is a
downward trend in Menez’s starts.
Also pay attention to Tyler Cyr, a righty relief that
impressed in my eyes in 2017 but had a lost 2018 season. The pitchers that left
me expecting for more Kieran Lovegrove, Chase Johnson and Garrett Williams.
Lovegrove is an awesome dude, but his April performance left me surprising to
be honest, mostly to his own fault. The biggest issue on his start of the
season is his strike throwing, with just 56 and a half percent of his pitches
thrown for strikes. That resulted for Kieran to have his lowest K rate since
2015, at 17.4%. The silver lining for him is that his unpredictability in terms
of strike throwing resulted to a .208 batting average against him, a number fit
for a pitcher with much better stat-line than him, so there’s a good chance
that Lovegrove will post better numbers moving forward. Johnson’s being bounced
around the minors this year like a ping pong but has posted underwhelming
all-around numbers but has a 28.77 strikeout rate. Williams’ ERA is high but
his peripherals are strong, most notably his very nice 6.9% walk rate. The only
problem that I see is Garrett’s strikeout rate is pretty underwhelming for a
guy with that good of a stuff in his left arm. Possibly trying to pitch for
contact? Let’s see where if the strikeouts will show up while keeping his walks
at the same rate as summer approaches.
The hitters in the Richmond squad are not the big ticket
guys but there are definitely a handful of prospects of note in Jonah Arenado,
Jacob Heyward and Jalen Miller. Let’s start with the duo of prospects who have
brothers in the Majors, beginning with Jonah Arenado. If you will pick in the
pre-season who will be the best hitter for the Flying Squirrels in April,
Jonah’s name would probably be in the 6th place down, but yes sir,
Jonah is leading the team in hits, batting average, slugging and OPS. I went on
to check what changed on Jonah, who never averaged over 100 wRC+ over the past
5 years and I noticed a couple of things. First, the body looked better than
ever this year, moving more athletic, just better all around. Second is his
hitting mechanics, most notably his leg kick. Looking at last year’s film, he
utilizes a double toe tap to get his timing and to be honest, he looked not on
time on plenty of his at bats. This season, the first evidence of his more
pronounced, early leg kick is his homer in Spring Training. He looked more in
sync, the head more stationary, resulting to more barrels, with an increase in
line drive rate of 23 and a half percent and increased his flyball rate to 52
and a half. He’s more of a pull hitter, 79% of the balls either to pull or to
center, but it is great to see Jonah finally putting the barrel to the ball
better. I know it sounds far fetched but Jose Altuve ditched his double toe tap
for a pronounced leg kick to make him see and time the ball better. It’s easy to
overreact about Jonah but I need more at bats to see if this is not a mirage
that I am seeing.
The younger Heyward’s start to the season has been very nice
before he got injured, leading the team in OBP, with a superb walk rate 25 and
a half percent. I took a look and I noticed a swing change compared to his 2018
setup. His hands are much more violent compared to last year and incorporated a
leg kick, just like back in college, as compared with his toe tap last year.
However, compared to Jonah, this early performance of Jacob looks more of a
mirage, objectively-speaking. With a similar ISO and flyball rate as last year,
his BABIP is .474 which is absurd and his last 10 games before his injury, his
batting average dropped 40 points, while having the highest strikeout rate of
his career. His line drive rate also dropped 5 percent and it went to his
groundball rate, a conversion which is typically a bad sign. Is he going to be
bad moving forward? Probably. But Jacob’s production on offense in the minors
exceeded expectations and I can still see him be a productive OF in AA ball but
I feel that his production will come back to Earth once he come back to injury.
For me, to be honest, the most impressive hitter that is
playing for the Flying Squirrels right now is Jalen Miller. I am just amazed on
how well his offensive impact improved ever since his swing change last year.
With a squad with Chris Shaw on the fold, who would have thought that it is
this second baseman would lead the team in homers at the end of April with 5.
Jalen steadily improved his power production, with a very good .230 ISO even
though the power will be more towards the pull side, as he has his front leg
open when swinging, maximizing torque or the so-called rubber band effect to
generate power. Along with the ride of improvement is the rise of his walk rate
and the fall of his strikeout rate, with double digit walk rate that sounds
absurd if you tell me about that a year ago and his strikeout rate is in the
teens, which is a plus. Jalen’s also reached halfway the amount of stolen bases
that he had last year in this month alone, all of it while having a fringy
BABIP. You know what they say, Jalen’s in the best form of his life. I hope he
keeps this up for a full season because he failed to finish strong last year,
more probably because he participated in the HR derby last year.
Now I take the time
to talk about the prospect who I consider to have the best hit tool in the
organization, Ryan Howard. Ryan’s putrid batting average in April was surprising
but what’s even more surprising is his walk rate which doubled as compared to
last year, to a very good 17% supported by his 4.23 pitches/plate appearance
that is 0.7 pitches more compared to last year, while maintaining his usual
ridiculously low strikeout rate at around 10%. For a guy who was known to put
the barrel to the ball easily when he was drafted, him really working on
getting on base however he can has been a positive, with his on base percentage
being better in the early going this year compared to last year. And I really
feel that Howard’s best hitting days are ahead of him because his BABIP is also
putrid at .220, way below the usual BABIP that you see from him, and his line
drive rate for the month of April is at a very, very good 27.1% and his
swinging strike percentage at 5.4%, the best in the team, which means he is
putting the ball to the barrel. Is there a possibility that Howard’s taking too
much pitches? Probably. Nonetheless, Howard’s effort to improve his walk rate
and get on base as much as he can is certainly pleasing to the eye, and for
sure the Zaidi front will appreciate it too.
A couple of hitters that I am concerned about are Heath
Quinn and Chris Shaw. I think my concern for Quinn is pretty obvious, he’s
striking out too much, up to 36% in April that is pulling his offensive impact
down. While for Shaw, I thought that he is going to smoke the Eastern League
but it feels like he is just playing okay there. I hope that the two will pick
it up onwards.
Now, last but definitely not the least, the Sacramento River
Cats. It will always begin with the pitching corps, particularly Tyler Beede
and Shaun Anderson. Let’s start with the young Beedah, shall we? First off, who
lead the league in strikeout rate and swinging strike rate in April? Yes sir,
it’s Tyler. Better than Dylan Cease. Yes sir. He is going back to the big leagues.
Let’s go! His stuff is for real even though his command will never be better
than average. I hope that Tyler stays in the Majors this time.
Next is Shaun
Anderson, who was 12th in strikeout percentage at 28%. Anderson is
beginning to settle in even though his ERA, FIP and xFIP is around 4, he
improved his strikeout rate while keeping his walk rate below 6, around the
same rate as last year. Him getting more strikeouts now is certainly
encouraging. I think Giants fans liked what they saw from Anderson in his
outing against the A’s in Oracle Park and he is still holding his own in the
even more juiced up PCL.
Williams Jerez’s been pretty good out of the bullpen
in the first month, even though his peripherals are worse than last season
except for his walk rate that went down slightly to 8 and a half percent, lefty
batters only bat .111 against him. For those who are not familiar with Jerez,
he is a lefty with a mid-90s fastball and a solid-looking slider. Tyler Rogers
has been a groundball machine with a 71 and a half groundball percent against
him but is struggling with control, with 17% walk rate, the only pitcher worse
than him in the squad is Ray Black, oh Ray Black. Even though Sam Coonrod’s
numbers are pretty awful right now, the great thing is that he is striking out
28 and a half percent of hitters he’s faced.
Most of the hitters in Sacramento squad are already
graduates of prospecthood but there are plenty of hitters who are doing well
like Mike Gerber and especially Mac Williamson. Give Mac a shot, Farhan! The
notable prospects in the squad like Abiatal Avelino and Aramis Garcia are still
struggling to get their footing in the PCL. I hope that they will pick it up
soon.
I
would like to wish all of the prospects who got traded, waived or released by
the organization in the offseason and during the season. I would like to shout
out my man Malique Ziegler. You are the man, you’ve been a great person, and I
hope that you kill it with the Twins organization.
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