As the Giants season spirals towards its impending doom in Bochy's final season, Giants fans are probably more tuned in towards the upcoming First-Year Player Draft (I do). As a big prospect enthusiast, I find the draft to be the most interesting event of the year as we see what kind of players each team is going to add into their organizations with the hopes of helping them win the World Series in the future.
For Giants fans who are not accustomed to this kind of suck and are already wanting to fire Zaidi for the early season tank that he's brought (again, it is not his fault that the available talent for him in the entire organization is already bleak to start with), nailing his regime's inaugural draft will surely win their fans back. I tried to dug deep (really, really deep) to the past drafts of the Dodgers, Braves and A's because Zaidi, chief of amateur scouting Holmes and national crosschecker and former Braves chief of amateur scouting Bridges most likely to call the shots, but all I found is a scattershot of tendencies that does not entirely correlate with one another aside from those three teams to not be afraid to take risks like the influx of HS talent in the A's in the recent years, injured pitchers for the Dodgers and the first day HS pitching for the Braves.
Thanks to the influx of information flung around the net by FanGraphs, MLB.com and Baseball America, the Giants do target the college crop, both hitting and pitching, heavily in this year's draft where they draft at the 10th spot, and they have already identified the players that the Giants are doing their long look in conference play. This kind of style what the Dodgers have done in the Friedman-Zaidi regime, targeting college performers or pop-up college pitching that underwent Tommy John in their draft years.
With that said, let's talk about the guys that I talked about in my previous draft preview. I have JJ Bleday as the college outfielder with the most offensive upside coming into tournament play and has elevated himself towards top 5 consideration and out of our reach. Our prospect boi Hunter Bishop went back to Earth come Pac 12 play but is still playing at a high level enough for the top 3-8 teams selecting him and the chances of him falling to the Giants lap is slim. The top pitching prospect in this lowly pitching crop is Nick Lodolo but he's surged to the 3-8 range along with Bleday, Greene, Bishop, etc. One chance that the team can lick their chops is when one or two of the top 10 teams try to underslot and the Rangers are looking like one of those teams. HS pitching is nowhere in sight as some see the Giants as the absolute ceiling of the best prep pitcher available, Matthew Allan.
Several prospects highlighted before fell down towards the back end of the first round, lead by Kameron Misner who scuffled at conference play and is now considered as a low-first round pick, kind of similar to what Zaidi's Ddogers did when they selected Jeren Kendall, uber-toolsy but scuffled with the bat in his draft year. And sorry JJ Goss believers, you won't see him high.
Some remained, like Jackson Rutledge who is projected to be picked in the 9-13 range as a who throws high-90s cheese like he's throwing darts. But there are five who emerged as the favorites in the range: Rutledge, Bryson Stott, Alek Manoah, Zack Thompson and Shea Langliers. The only catch is that even if I try the 14,000,605 probabilities that the Giants can go with their draft, I just can't see a scenario where they will select Langliers over the other four mentioned. Stott, Manoah and Thompson are prospects that I never did a full report on even though I already blurbed about Thompson and in some ways, Stott before. I hope that after the pros and cons that you see once I highlighted the three, you can decide who to choose.
Stats are as of 5/19/2019, 10 A.M. local time
Stats are as of 5/19/2019, 10 A.M. local time
Alek Manoah RHP
6'6" 260 lbs. R/R 21.4 y/o
Videos: Credits to 2080 Baseball 1 2 and 3, Perfect Game Baseball, FanGraphs and Wilson Karaman
2019 Stats: 13 Starts | 90.2 IP | 59 H | 26 R (19 ER) | 22 BB | 121 K | 9 WP | 4 BK | 1.89 ERA | 0.89 WHIP | 5.86 H/9 | 2.18 BB/9 | 12.01 K/9 | 5.50 K/BB
FB 65 | SL 65 | CH 45 | CMD 50
Pros: Easy, repeatable mechanics for a guy his size, most potent two-pitch combo of the draft, fills the strike zone well, high floor with pretty high ceiling.
Cons: Serious relief risk due to lack of quality third pitch and does not have the consistent "hit where the catcher's mitt is" command.
Pros: Easy, repeatable mechanics for a guy his size, most potent two-pitch combo of the draft, fills the strike zone well, high floor with pretty high ceiling.
Cons: Serious relief risk due to lack of quality third pitch and does not have the consistent "hit where the catcher's mitt is" command.
I first came across Manoah's profile is back in his HS days where he looked raw but has the big frame already and armed with a strong fastball. Three years after, he's much bigger than before but has matured in his big frame, making him an imposing presence on the mound. He plays like a man of his size as he is a fiery competitor with emotion showing up whenever he gets out of big spots unscathed. There will be concerns about him getting towards that CC Sabathia-type of body as he hits his prime but it is a pleasant sight that he's looked in his fittest body of his life this year. Also, he's been used as a reliever in his first two years, limiting his innings pitched by 55 a year, and only had 90 2/3 innings this year, so he is an unusual top college prospect with plenty of tread in those tires.
Looking at Manoah's stat improvements as the years go is just incredible. His massive improvement in his strikeout rate and walk rate are very, very positive, continuing his hot streak after a really good Cape stint last year, where he hit below 3 BB/9 for the first time in college and his other stats followed towards dominance. The reason that he improved so much this year is the progression of his mechanics along with his body.
Looking at his mechanics, he is the type of pitcher who exclusively pitches from the stretch. I love that he knows that he has a big boi body and he has to make his mechanics as simple and easy as possible to be repeatable. He does a good job riding his back leg to generate energy but the biggest difference that I saw is his arm action, as it is a shorter, more deceptive version of last year, where he does not reach back that much in his back side during his drive that improved his balance on the mound. Manoah went from a Matt Albers-type of arm swing to a simpler version similar to Tanner Roark. It significantly improved his ability to throw the ball over the plate for strikes but has shown to be inconsistent in terms of fine command as he's failing to hit the spot where the catcher's mitt is pretty often. However, he seems to not miss by much more often than not. Overall, when I nitpicked his mechanics, he has feel to repeat it well in his current body.
If you are looking for the pitcher with the best shot of making the big leagues, look no further than Manoah, as a team that will draft him can rush him to the big leagues with his fastball-slider combo that I considered as the best in this draft class as a potential impact relief. Manoah's fastball typically sits in the 92-95 MPH range but has been able to reach back and hit 96 MPH to 98 MPH if he wants to even in deep pitch counts as he usually is and is able to draw swings and misses due to sheer velocity and movement. The pitch has some sink but tends to throw his four seamer with tail but has a good reported spin rate of around 2500 RPM around the upper quadrant of the zone or his sinker away to set up his slider and vice versa.
The slider is the other pitch that has plenty of nasty with it, with a lot of two-plane depth and has shown the ability to still throw the pitch with late bite for a pitch with so much sweeping break. A pitch that Manoah learned by morphing Chris Sale's and Dellin Betances' slider grips to one, he gets the swing and miss because he repeats his high 3/4 slot well and has good arm speed to boot. The closest pitch that I can compare it to is the Yu Darvish slider. It is that good potentially. The issue that I see, and it is just being paranoid of me, is that if he leaves the pitch up, it tends to lose some of its bite. I have seen only a few of Manoah's changeups and I thought that the pitch is a fringy to average at best, with sinking movement but it is not a sharp sinking movement or zero spin-tumbling movement that you would want for a good one. That is where I worry about Manoah.
They say that you draft the best player available in the first round but also draft a safe pick because you want for your first pick to hit in the big leagues, and I say Manoah is probably the best out there because he can definitely get to the big leagues because of his fastball-slider and throw it in the strike zone with above-average control. That said, Manoah does not have a third out pitch to be a full-pledge starter right now unless he develops one in the minor leagues. I am trying to think of pitchers his size and guys like Sabathia, Chris Carpenter and Michael Pineda and I see Manoah as a wose athlete than Sabathia to really see Manoah deal paint after paint unless the feel improves. The ceiling that I see for Manoah is a Carlos Carrasco, a potential #2 in any team. The floor that I see is actually really high, a potential back-end relief, with closer or fireman potential due to his fiery nature on the mound. The most likely scenario is that he will be a Michael Pineda without the shenanigans, a good, mid-back end rotation guy that will rack up the Ks with his fastball and slider.
Bryson Stott SS/2B
6'3" 195 lbs. L/R 21.7 y/o
Videos: Credits to The Prospect Pipeline 1 and 2, Shaun P Kernahan, Eric Roth and 2080 Baseball
2019 Stats: 51 G | .369 AVG | .498 OBP | .636 SLG | 1.134 OPS | 19 2B | 2 3B | 10 HR | 35 RBI | 50 BB | 37 K | 15 SB (4 CS) | .267 ISO | .475 wOBA | 19.84 BB% | 14.68 K% | 0.74 K/BB | 42.47 XBH%
Hit 60 | Power 45 | Speed 50+ | Arm 55 | Glove 50+
Pros: High floor due to polish, instincts, baseball IQ and all-around skillset, excellent hand-eye coordination and approach at the plate, ability to slow the game down.
Cons: Limited ceiling due to lack of quick twitch athleticism and present strength and potential, potential move to second base.
Stott has long been projected to be selected very high in this year's draft, from as high as top 5 and definitely in the 9-14 range. Stott may lack the razzle dazzle of the other prospects but in terms of the all around skillset, polish and track record of performance, he separated himself from the rest of the pack to be the best college infielder prospects this year.
Even though no one tool blows me away whenever I watch Stott, it does impress me how well he's slowed the game down and made everything look easy, and he carries that calm demeanor to the field. His ability to hit is definitely his best tool. His track record to hit is legit, his come to the batter's box with a plan, his strike zone awareness, feel for the barrel and patience are one of the best in this class. This year, he's taken a Kyle Tucker-like approach of hitting more homers with the expense of an increase in his strikeout rate without hurting his other stats because his ability to put the barrel to the ball is top notch.
His batting stance looks different this year compared to when he played for Team USA last year. His stance this year is an upright one with an open front leg, keeping his body loose. His swing path allows the bat to travel the zone for a long time and does alleviate his lack of bat speed to catch up to premium velocity. His best tool is probably his eye-hand coordination as he is able to foul off pitches to extend at bats, potential for directional hitting and couple that with his strike zone awareness, he could easily breeze through the minors with his good batting average and on base percentage.
He struck out more this year with double the strikeout rate compared to last year in an effort to draw more power in his swing. The power that I have seen from him is more in his pull side but I can see why people does not rate his raw power that well. His frame currently lacks strength that I have seen on shortstops with his same body, lacking the lower half muscles to drive the ball, he has room to improve and potentially have above-average game power if he improves his physique. He is playing in an hitter-friendly environment and I can see him be a double digit homer guy in pro ball with good triple slash line.
Defensively, I don't see a lot of issues about Stott's eventual spot on the field. His arm action's pretty funky but he has the arm strength, instincts, and polished fundamentals to stick to short for as long as he can. He will get hit by the get's moved by a better situation in the big leagues like the Alex Bregman treatment but he will definitely stay in the dirt and be a good defender.
If ever the Giants landed Stott, it definitely fits what the Athletics did, stockpiling high floor, proven college bats who played in the middle of the field. Then again, I would've loved for them to draft someone with ceiling like a Corbin Carroll if ever. But Stott's chance of playing in the big leagues is pretty high and would have an impact on both sides of the ball. And also, the Zaidi-Holmes front already has a lot of time spent on scouting Stott and they might feel the same that I do about him: socks still on my feet, but happy overall.
Zack Thompson LHP
6'2" 225 lbs. L/L 21.6 y/o
Videos: Credits to 2080 Baseball 1 and 2, Perfect Game Baseball and James Weisser
2019 Stats: 13 Starts | 84 IP | 53 H | 25 R (20 ER) | 31 BB | 121 K | 7 WP | 1 BK | 2.14 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 5.68 H/9 | 3.32 BB/9 | 12.96 K/9 | 3.90 K/BB
FB 50+ | CB 55 | SL 55 | CH 50+ | CMD 45
Pros: Complete repertoire from the left side, slider and curveball are distinct and swing and miss pitches, mid-rotation upside.
Cons: Injury history, inconsistent control and command.
If the 2019 draft would've happened just after the 2018 draft, I would've drafted Thompson. Thompson's a bit of an enigma in my eyes but have been proving me wrong start after start and has shown improvements in terms of the issues that has him behind other top pitchers in this draft class.
Thompson's one of two biggest knocks on him is his injury history. With a shoulder and elbow injuries (no Tommy John), everyone will take a look at his mechanics. His arm action looks pretty clunky and the way he twists his forearm and hand in his arm action is pretty concerning for me but the tempo that he has on the mound looks fine for me. I am not entirely concerned about his mechanics but if ever he gets injured (God, I hope not), they will point in that arm action of his. What I do want to see from him is to close his front foot when it lands and be more closed to limit his tendency to leak.
Whenever we are talking about Thompson, we always talk about how good his stuff is from the left side. The southpaw only has average velocity in his fastball, around 90-94 MPH and even though he can touch 96, he tends to settle in the 90-93 range in later innings. The pitch plays better than his average velocity due to the deception he has in mechanics as he hides the ball in his 6'3", 225 lb frame well and has sinking movement wherever the pitch is thrown. Thompson's body could use a bit more TLC to improve his physique to ensure his velocity sustain in the 92-94 range in the later innings.
Thompson's pair of breaking balls are probably better than his fastball, to be honest. The slider and the curveball are distinct pitches and both flash plus potential. The mid-80s slider is considered by general to be the better of the two but I like both slider and low-70s curveball equally. The slider at its best has late, sharp vertica break but the break is more vertical than horizontal. The pitch when thrown right gets swings and misses but there are times where it is left high and loses sharpness and becomes a fringy offering. The curveball when flipped correctly flashes better than the slider with the same late, sharp 12-6ish break and is just plain nasty when effective. Both are going to be weapons for him. His mid-80s change has plenty of sinking movement but the break looks inconsistent at times.
One thing that will determine Thompson's future in pro ball is his command. It is the first time that he's below 3.5 BB/9 in his college career after being above 5 in his two years prior. Having a pretty spotty command history is pretty concerning for me. But it is obvious that once he improved his walk rate, his strikeout rate went up significantly. It just shows that his stuff plays as long as he can locate it. In videos I have seen, he often misses the catcher's mitt, particularly with his fastball, some by a wide margin. That will be the deciding factor for Thompson on what will his ceiling be. I can see his ceiling to be a C.J. Wilson-type of pitcher where he often relies on his breaking balls to generate plenty of strikeouts. In order to make that happen, he needs to fine-tune his fastball command because his curve and slider can get outs with the best of them.
In comparing Manoah and Thompson, there are risks and rewards between the two of them. While Manoah has a better shot of making the big leagues, it is probably as a reliever with his standout fastball-slider combo. While Thompson has a more complete repertoire to be a starting pitcher, his ability to command his fastball is inferior to Manoah and it can really determine if he will ever reach the big leagues at all. I can say that both have the same ceiling but I can see Manoah having a better floor, and in the first round, you really want to hit that pick. Getting a hitter is the safer way and that's why Stott is a logical selection over the two pitchers. However, the problem that I see is Stott lacks quick twitch in his bat that limits his ceiling. But nonetheless, there's a good chance the Giants will get a borderline top 100 prospect with the 10th pick. Don't get the pitchforks for now, people.
If you are looking for the pitcher with the best shot of making the big leagues, look no further than Manoah, as a team that will draft him can rush him to the big leagues with his fastball-slider combo that I considered as the best in this draft class as a potential impact relief. Manoah's fastball typically sits in the 92-95 MPH range but has been able to reach back and hit 96 MPH to 98 MPH if he wants to even in deep pitch counts as he usually is and is able to draw swings and misses due to sheer velocity and movement. The pitch has some sink but tends to throw his four seamer with tail but has a good reported spin rate of around 2500 RPM around the upper quadrant of the zone or his sinker away to set up his slider and vice versa.
The slider is the other pitch that has plenty of nasty with it, with a lot of two-plane depth and has shown the ability to still throw the pitch with late bite for a pitch with so much sweeping break. A pitch that Manoah learned by morphing Chris Sale's and Dellin Betances' slider grips to one, he gets the swing and miss because he repeats his high 3/4 slot well and has good arm speed to boot. The closest pitch that I can compare it to is the Yu Darvish slider. It is that good potentially. The issue that I see, and it is just being paranoid of me, is that if he leaves the pitch up, it tends to lose some of its bite. I have seen only a few of Manoah's changeups and I thought that the pitch is a fringy to average at best, with sinking movement but it is not a sharp sinking movement or zero spin-tumbling movement that you would want for a good one. That is where I worry about Manoah.
They say that you draft the best player available in the first round but also draft a safe pick because you want for your first pick to hit in the big leagues, and I say Manoah is probably the best out there because he can definitely get to the big leagues because of his fastball-slider and throw it in the strike zone with above-average control. That said, Manoah does not have a third out pitch to be a full-pledge starter right now unless he develops one in the minor leagues. I am trying to think of pitchers his size and guys like Sabathia, Chris Carpenter and Michael Pineda and I see Manoah as a wose athlete than Sabathia to really see Manoah deal paint after paint unless the feel improves. The ceiling that I see for Manoah is a Carlos Carrasco, a potential #2 in any team. The floor that I see is actually really high, a potential back-end relief, with closer or fireman potential due to his fiery nature on the mound. The most likely scenario is that he will be a Michael Pineda without the shenanigans, a good, mid-back end rotation guy that will rack up the Ks with his fastball and slider.
Bryson Stott SS/2B
6'3" 195 lbs. L/R 21.7 y/o
Videos: Credits to The Prospect Pipeline 1 and 2, Shaun P Kernahan, Eric Roth and 2080 Baseball
2019 Stats: 51 G | .369 AVG | .498 OBP | .636 SLG | 1.134 OPS | 19 2B | 2 3B | 10 HR | 35 RBI | 50 BB | 37 K | 15 SB (4 CS) | .267 ISO | .475 wOBA | 19.84 BB% | 14.68 K% | 0.74 K/BB | 42.47 XBH%
Hit 60 | Power 45 | Speed 50+ | Arm 55 | Glove 50+
Pros: High floor due to polish, instincts, baseball IQ and all-around skillset, excellent hand-eye coordination and approach at the plate, ability to slow the game down.
Cons: Limited ceiling due to lack of quick twitch athleticism and present strength and potential, potential move to second base.
Stott has long been projected to be selected very high in this year's draft, from as high as top 5 and definitely in the 9-14 range. Stott may lack the razzle dazzle of the other prospects but in terms of the all around skillset, polish and track record of performance, he separated himself from the rest of the pack to be the best college infielder prospects this year.
Even though no one tool blows me away whenever I watch Stott, it does impress me how well he's slowed the game down and made everything look easy, and he carries that calm demeanor to the field. His ability to hit is definitely his best tool. His track record to hit is legit, his come to the batter's box with a plan, his strike zone awareness, feel for the barrel and patience are one of the best in this class. This year, he's taken a Kyle Tucker-like approach of hitting more homers with the expense of an increase in his strikeout rate without hurting his other stats because his ability to put the barrel to the ball is top notch.
His batting stance looks different this year compared to when he played for Team USA last year. His stance this year is an upright one with an open front leg, keeping his body loose. His swing path allows the bat to travel the zone for a long time and does alleviate his lack of bat speed to catch up to premium velocity. His best tool is probably his eye-hand coordination as he is able to foul off pitches to extend at bats, potential for directional hitting and couple that with his strike zone awareness, he could easily breeze through the minors with his good batting average and on base percentage.
He struck out more this year with double the strikeout rate compared to last year in an effort to draw more power in his swing. The power that I have seen from him is more in his pull side but I can see why people does not rate his raw power that well. His frame currently lacks strength that I have seen on shortstops with his same body, lacking the lower half muscles to drive the ball, he has room to improve and potentially have above-average game power if he improves his physique. He is playing in an hitter-friendly environment and I can see him be a double digit homer guy in pro ball with good triple slash line.
Defensively, I don't see a lot of issues about Stott's eventual spot on the field. His arm action's pretty funky but he has the arm strength, instincts, and polished fundamentals to stick to short for as long as he can. He will get hit by the get's moved by a better situation in the big leagues like the Alex Bregman treatment but he will definitely stay in the dirt and be a good defender.
If ever the Giants landed Stott, it definitely fits what the Athletics did, stockpiling high floor, proven college bats who played in the middle of the field. Then again, I would've loved for them to draft someone with ceiling like a Corbin Carroll if ever. But Stott's chance of playing in the big leagues is pretty high and would have an impact on both sides of the ball. And also, the Zaidi-Holmes front already has a lot of time spent on scouting Stott and they might feel the same that I do about him: socks still on my feet, but happy overall.
Zack Thompson LHP
6'2" 225 lbs. L/L 21.6 y/o
Videos: Credits to 2080 Baseball 1 and 2, Perfect Game Baseball and James Weisser
2019 Stats: 13 Starts | 84 IP | 53 H | 25 R (20 ER) | 31 BB | 121 K | 7 WP | 1 BK | 2.14 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 5.68 H/9 | 3.32 BB/9 | 12.96 K/9 | 3.90 K/BB
FB 50+ | CB 55 | SL 55 | CH 50+ | CMD 45
Pros: Complete repertoire from the left side, slider and curveball are distinct and swing and miss pitches, mid-rotation upside.
Cons: Injury history, inconsistent control and command.
If the 2019 draft would've happened just after the 2018 draft, I would've drafted Thompson. Thompson's a bit of an enigma in my eyes but have been proving me wrong start after start and has shown improvements in terms of the issues that has him behind other top pitchers in this draft class.
Thompson's one of two biggest knocks on him is his injury history. With a shoulder and elbow injuries (no Tommy John), everyone will take a look at his mechanics. His arm action looks pretty clunky and the way he twists his forearm and hand in his arm action is pretty concerning for me but the tempo that he has on the mound looks fine for me. I am not entirely concerned about his mechanics but if ever he gets injured (God, I hope not), they will point in that arm action of his. What I do want to see from him is to close his front foot when it lands and be more closed to limit his tendency to leak.
Whenever we are talking about Thompson, we always talk about how good his stuff is from the left side. The southpaw only has average velocity in his fastball, around 90-94 MPH and even though he can touch 96, he tends to settle in the 90-93 range in later innings. The pitch plays better than his average velocity due to the deception he has in mechanics as he hides the ball in his 6'3", 225 lb frame well and has sinking movement wherever the pitch is thrown. Thompson's body could use a bit more TLC to improve his physique to ensure his velocity sustain in the 92-94 range in the later innings.
Thompson's pair of breaking balls are probably better than his fastball, to be honest. The slider and the curveball are distinct pitches and both flash plus potential. The mid-80s slider is considered by general to be the better of the two but I like both slider and low-70s curveball equally. The slider at its best has late, sharp vertica break but the break is more vertical than horizontal. The pitch when thrown right gets swings and misses but there are times where it is left high and loses sharpness and becomes a fringy offering. The curveball when flipped correctly flashes better than the slider with the same late, sharp 12-6ish break and is just plain nasty when effective. Both are going to be weapons for him. His mid-80s change has plenty of sinking movement but the break looks inconsistent at times.
One thing that will determine Thompson's future in pro ball is his command. It is the first time that he's below 3.5 BB/9 in his college career after being above 5 in his two years prior. Having a pretty spotty command history is pretty concerning for me. But it is obvious that once he improved his walk rate, his strikeout rate went up significantly. It just shows that his stuff plays as long as he can locate it. In videos I have seen, he often misses the catcher's mitt, particularly with his fastball, some by a wide margin. That will be the deciding factor for Thompson on what will his ceiling be. I can see his ceiling to be a C.J. Wilson-type of pitcher where he often relies on his breaking balls to generate plenty of strikeouts. In order to make that happen, he needs to fine-tune his fastball command because his curve and slider can get outs with the best of them.
In comparing Manoah and Thompson, there are risks and rewards between the two of them. While Manoah has a better shot of making the big leagues, it is probably as a reliever with his standout fastball-slider combo. While Thompson has a more complete repertoire to be a starting pitcher, his ability to command his fastball is inferior to Manoah and it can really determine if he will ever reach the big leagues at all. I can say that both have the same ceiling but I can see Manoah having a better floor, and in the first round, you really want to hit that pick. Getting a hitter is the safer way and that's why Stott is a logical selection over the two pitchers. However, the problem that I see is Stott lacks quick twitch in his bat that limits his ceiling. But nonetheless, there's a good chance the Giants will get a borderline top 100 prospect with the 10th pick. Don't get the pitchforks for now, people.
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