Welcome to the May prospect report! Now the draft is just a couple of sleeps away so before we get to the draft content, I am monitoring the whereabouts of prospects and telling you what I have seen in terms of the movement of their stats over the course of the month. We are now in May and the long season is coming unto us. From big league promotions to return from injuries, I hope you find this fun to read.
Since the DSL just started its season, it will not be included in this edition but will be in the June piece.
Augusta GreenJackets
Pitching
Two of the best prospects in the squad were promoted in the middle of the month, as Sean Hjelle and Jake Wong rode their hot starts and shown their maturity over their peers. What's left in the squad are still pretty solid as Seth Corry and Blake Rivera headlines the rotation heading to June. To be honest, nothing much changed happened over the past month in terms of their stats as both Corry and Rivera are still pitchers who are struggling with keeping the ball consistently in the zone in a start-to-start basis, with Corry allowing 18 BBs in just 19 2/3 innings in May while Rivera allowed 16 in 28 innings. What's keeping them intriguing is the strikeouts, with both still having a K/9 of over 10.75 in a span of two months.
I am starting to get a feeling that no matter how simplified Corry's mechanics are, his ceiling in his command is going to be a 40 with a likely shot of 35, barely a shot at the Majors, since his scattershot pitching is limiting him into throwing deep in his starts where he fails to reach over the 6 inning mark and is often biting deep to his likely 85-ish pitch limit in the 4th or 5th inning. Rivera's doing a little better, where his peripherals favoring him with a 3.15 FIP and 3.76 xFIP but both still need to do a better job.
Unlike Corry and Rivera who are missing bats and also missing their locations at the same time, Keaton Winn has been pretty much the horse of the staff over the past month, with three straight quality starts (6 IP, 3 or less ER) in the month. GPT provided us a glimpse of Keaton and from what I have seen as well as other videos of him available this year, I think there's some potential. The mechanics looked very good with the cleanliness and tempo that you expect from a pitcher receiving polish from pro coaching, with his plus athleticism showing out and an excellent arm action. What Winn lacks though is an arsenal of swing and miss pitches, his fastball seems to be in the low-90s range with some feel but I am not enamored with his slider, where it can be average at best and is often a fringy or below-average pitch. The lack of tasty secondaries also reflects on his stats, where he struck out just 17 batters in 30 innings pitched. Even though he has good feel for locating his pitches and could project to at least average or touch above in command, if he still lacks the bite on the slider and his changeup does not improve drastically in two to three years, it is more likely that he is a fringy relief option moving forward. I do see promise because everything aside from his stuff.
On the other side of the staff, Ben Madison's a nice addition to the staff with solid stat lines but lacks the innings to make a judgement of him, Jesus Ozoria's been lit up this month with his stats spiking through the roof, and Jesus Tona's been the rock behind the otherwise decent at best bullpen and is positioned to be a SAL All-Star this year.
Hitting
Several of the hot hitters in April cooled off in May, with Ismael Munguia's triple slash of .354/.393/.443 dipped to .220/.284/.320 in May and while Frankie Tostado's average dipped to .266 at the end of the month and his strikeouts piling, he's been the source of power for the squad, with 5 homers in May. Shane Matheny's offense leaves much to be desired although it has potential since he has a 27.7 line drive%, his defensive ability at second base is making him an intriguing prospect where his glove will make him move towards the high minors.
The one hitter who got hot in the month of May has been its projected to be the squad's best hitter, Diego Rincones. Rincones averaged a cool .299 in May and is continuing his quest to improve his on base ability, maintaining his 7.3% walk rate while posting a better triple slash line. The power that he has in his stocky frame is still pretty absent (just 1 homer), he leads the team in triples with 4, with him still looking to be happy in making solid contact and improve his on base percentage and be a solid defender in the corner. If Rincones continues to heat up until the end of June, he will be in the mid-season top 30 in my book.
The prospect that I am really worried is Jacob Gonzalez. He's struggled to put an impact to the ball in April but the silver lining was that he walked more than he struck out the whole month. In May, his stats got worse, with a .198/.250/.264 triple slash and he struck out 14 times while walked just 5 times. He's also seen some reps at first base in the month. I am not sure if that is a red flag that the Giants are showing signs of throwing the towel with him playing at the hot corner long-term but maybe I'm just overreading things. Then again, the amount of errors that he's already piled up (already at 18 in 3B and 1B combined) are very worrying. Couple that with his atrocious stats are making me very, very concerned. If you are going to ask me, in an objective point of view, he will not make my mid-season top 30. I really like the man and I wish for him to succeed but the stats does not lie.
San Jose Lil' Gigantes
Pitching
Let's start with the big ticket newcomers, shall we? Sean Hjelle and Jake Wong were promoted in late-May after posting numbers that just looked that they are just too good for the Sally, in terms of stuff and in terms of pitchability. So far, both are up to par in terms of the quality of the league, with Wong posting even better strikeout and walk rate in San Jose than in Augusta (23.8% vs 22.1% and 7.1% vs 4.8% respectively) and that is a promising early look on him. He's firmly in the top 10-12 prospects in the organization right now in my books.
The other two newcomers are Solomon Bates and Matt Frisbee, with the latter coming to the squad at the last week of April. Both are doing pretty good, with Bates providing solid multi-inning stints and has a 17% swinging strike% and a 13.5 line drive%, and Frisbee being the first pitcher to rack up 10 Ks in a start for the Lil' Gigantes this season. Frisbee continues to be a healthy source of strikeout-walk ratio for pitchers (7.2 K/BB ratio in SJ and 4th among all qualified pitchers in swinging strike % at 17.7% and at 32.8 K%) and is low-key rising up to the prospect ranks.
The other pitchers of note are Aaron Phillips, who is in a 4-starts streak of 5-6 inning starts of 1 ER or less in the month of May, Camilo Doval improved on his stats in May just a bit but a recent video of him showed that he still has plenty of work to be done in harnessing his stuff, and Frank Rubio still being lights out as the closer of the squad with a spotless ERA in May and with 10 Ks in 11 innings of work. Rubio's making his case as a CAL All-Star this year.
Hitting
Pretty much it's not about hitting if we don't talk about who returned late in May, right? It's the one and only Heliot Ramos. Ever since returning from his injury in April, he's continued his tear of the league, batting .400 with 2 homers, one off Mackenzie Gore that I showed in my tweet, and is currently riding an 8-game hitting streak in the time this is written. The tools are for real, and it's time to strap back in if you left some time last year.
The real guy who started the current hot streak of the club is Peter Maris. A rule 5 draftee last year from Tampa Bay (in the minor league phase), he's been a producer last year in the Rays farm system over two levels, before having Tommy John. He's carried that offensive punch that he has to San Jose, with a .351/.500/.730 triple slash, 1 double, 2 triples, 3 homers, 22.9 BB%, 14.6 K%, 242 wRC+ in 12 games with the team. He's also played 7 (!) positions last year for the Rays so there's positional versatility that the Zaidi regime really likes and they definitely like this guy. Let's see if Maris can sustain this over the season as he's pretty old for the level (turning 26 this year).
In terms of the other hitters, David Villar's been hot in May with a .320 average and a .982 OPS with 3 homers as the offense heated up once the reinforcements arrived and affected players like Bryce Johnson. Randy Norris is an interesting prospect with an ability to walk and not strike out on his two months so far, Ryder Jones is back playing late-May and should not stay in the squad for long as he tries to move back to the big leagues, and Courtney Hawkins is probably more famous for his backflip when he got drafted than his performance in pro ball but hey, he's got a shot to do something good in San Jose.
Richmond Flying Squirrels
Pitching
I think this time, there's no other way to start the monthly recap with the Richmond pitching than to highlight what Conner Menez has been doing for the past two months. Menez has been absolutely dominant as the ace of the staff, with a 2.54 ERA in May to go along with 33 Ks and just 7 BBs in 28 1/3 innings pitched, resulting to a 30.6 K%. The opponent's batting average against Menez is just .153 and even though he's now a full-pledged flyball pitcher (43.1%), he's delivering weak contact due to his fastball location and sequencing of his four pitches, with his solid slider as his putaway pitch. The Master's product has been on the prospect radar for quite a while and is a favorite of many and should be promoted to AAA or even straight to the Majors as a potential lefty relief once the big ticket relievers gets traded for prospects if ever.
The big daddy of San Jose Raffi Vizcaino was been promoted to the AA ball and he's been absolutely dominant in the level in May. 0.00 ERA, 13 Ks, with just 2 BBs in 9 1/3 May innings. He's also has one of the lowest line drive % in the org with just 10.3%. He's been pumping out his mid to high-90s sharp cheddar with authority although his fine command still lacks consistency but is able to spot his fastball when he needs to, especially in two-strike counts. Changeup's been working well for him too and so does his slide piece. Let's see if he can continue to dominate and breeze through AA ball and into the Majors this year although his June 1st outing is his first speed bump so let's see how he bounces back.
Garrett Williams and Kieran Lovegrove are still battling control issues and add Melvin Adon to the mix as well but the three are still able to rack up the Ks due to their sheer stuff (all having >4.5 BB/9 and >8.5 K/9 in May), Sam Wolff is still doing well and I hope he really gets a shot of the big leagues. Anytime now. Connor Overton is a decent pitcher but with a 17.6 swinging strike%.
Hitting
My initial thought about writing this section is "Jonah Arenado playing shortstop????". Yes, Jonah Arenado, listed at 6'4" 240 lbs. in MiLB's player page, is playing the prime position on the field (except for catcher). Offensively, Jonah's triple slash dipped a bit but is still doing a good job in terms of drawing pitches in at bats and getting on base (9 walks) but the power needs to show up in order for Jonah to be a top 30 prospect. I hope he draws it out in the second half of the season.
This month is the month that I think we should start to temper out any overhype of Jacob Heyward and Jalen Miller. Both are having good seasons, with Jalen the potential of reaching the 20-20 club this year, but batted just .202 in the month of May with 29 Ks in 27 games, and while Heyward's OPS is still a respectable .825, it came with the expense of 40 Ks in 27 games. Meanwhile, the real Heath Quinn that we saw last year as an offensive force heated up in May after an abyssmal April before getting hit by the injury train, batting .290 with a .905 OPS and just 8 Ks all month as opposed to 27 last month. Will Maddox has a 33.3 line drive %, tops among all hitters with 10 PA/IP, and rest are just struggling offensively.
Sacramento River Cats
Pitching
Most of the pitching here is not that interesting anymore for the common fan since it looks like Tyler Beede, Shaun Anderson and Sam Coonrod all poised to be a part of the big league pitching corps for the rest of the season (go to baseballsavant and go check out the cold hard metrics that are available) and there are very few prospects of note. Sam Selman is an interesting case where the advanced metrics are very friendly to him (14.7% swinging strikes, 7.9% opponents line drives, .229 BABIP against), Tyler Rogers has a ridiculous 67.9 ground ball %, and Williams Jerez, who looks like poised to take on a bigger role in the big leagues once the administration starts the big teardown.
Hitting
Two prospects of note here: Ryan Howard and Chris Shaw, both promoted to the squad after a stint in Richmond. Howard's triple slash were not great in his first month as a AAA player but he's still shown his bat can play in some of the highlights and I hope for him to be a good player for the squad moving forward. Chris Shaw's AA numbers before getting promoted were very pleasing, especially his BB% that reached to 10.4% this season while cutting his K% to a respectable 18.1%. The power's still there with the bat as shown by 7 HRs and a .213 ISO but Shaw needs to prove he can also do it at the PCL but I think that he can break out in an AL club that needs a left-handed power bat as a DH.
There's not much after that to be honest. Mike Gerber should have a shot at the big leagues some time this year, Aviatal Avelino's 11.8 swinging strike % is still pretty nice but the 57.3% groundball rate also alarms me.
Thank you for reading and I hope to see you in the next month's reports! Stay tuned to my draft reviews in the upcoming days!
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